Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Looking at in-series value after Game 1s
We've seen one game for each of the eight first-round playoff series, and while that's just 60 (or sometimes more) minutes of action, it's a data point for each matchup. Things went well for the Kings, Kraken, and Jets' chances of turning value into victory, so we'll stick to our guns there. Let's take that first data point for the other five series, where, despite some lopsided scores, there were no big mismatches. We'll compare the metrics to pre-series betting lines in order to see what virtual tickets we should put in our virtual pocket mid-series.
Islanders to win series (+325)
We thought this series would feature close, low-scoring games, and that's what we got in Game 1. The Hurricanes got the first goal, so it felt like they controlled play on the way to victory, but the even-strength high-danger chance total wasn't only 12-11 in the Islanders' favor, but that total is higher than expected. If chances are going to be as abundant going forward, Ilya Sorokin has a better chance to be a difference-maker. The Canes really only held serve by winning at home. Now at +325, has that much changed from when the Isles were +170? Whether the Islanders swipe Game 2 in Raleigh or flip things back to even on Long Island, this series is far from over.
Panthers/Bruins over 5.5 games (+110)
Like Carolina, the Bruins got the jump on their opponent in Game 1, but the Panthers actually acquitted themselves well relative to the questions we asked of them before the series. The soft goal allowed got the headlines, but Alex Lyon made some big saves to keep Florida in it, and the Panthers outchanced the Bruins 15-9 in high-danger areas. Florida at +200 in Game 2 is interesting, but the assumption that this series is going to end quickly is creating a plus-money price on it going six games or more. That's a deal if the Panthers can keep creating goals at nearly 60% of the game flow.
Stars to win series (+110)
The Stars weren't the better team in the first two periods of Game 1, as the Wild won the expected goal (xG) battle 1.45-0.64. However, the Stars took over for the next two-plus periods, winning the xG split 2.65-1.2. The Stars missed numerous glorious chances to end it and allowed the Wild to eventually get the game-winner, but context matters, and I'm more willing to back the team that was better later. We didn't get Marc-Andre Fleury in goal as we hoped for in Game 1, which saved us a loss in the ledger when Filip Gustavsson stopped better than two goals above expected (2.1 GSAx), but we'll bet against him to maintain that level for six more games, especially at a plus-price for the Stars.
Maple Leafs to win series (+110)
If the city known as the "Big Smoke" went up in flames after a 7-3 loss to the Lightning, we'd joke about waiting for the smoldering embers to cool before looking at Game 1 objectively. However, the sad truth is that apathy has crept in given the dire expectations prevailing in Toronto. Still, with a 15-6 even-strength high-danger-chance rate, if the Maple Leafs get better than self-admitted "shit" goaltending from Ilya Samsonov (-2.23 GSAx), there's reason to believe they're still the better team.
The Leafs can win a game on the road, so a series that was probably destined to be longer than necessary remains just as likely to go the distance. The Leafs were -160 in Game 1 at home and are approaching that again for Game 2. Having +110 on the Leafs in Game 7 would provide value, and I wouldn't rule out Toronto winning in six games, especially if Tampa Bay's defensive injuries are significant - particularly in the case of Victor Hedman.
Devils to win series (+165)
We felt like the odds were underrating the Devils before the series, and New Jersey's home loss in Game 1 now makes it a big underdog in the market to the flashier Rangers. But with both teams boasting better road records than at home and next to no travel, should a 16%-20% probability change be warranted? Maybe if the Devils had been woefully outplayed, but a 2.27-1.51 advantage in even-strength expected goals and a 12-10 edge in high-danger chances at five-on-five suggests the 5-1 final score wasn't indicative of each team's play. The Devils can get back to level in this series, and if they do, having a +165 ticket will look pretty good. After all, this is entirely the point of hopping into these series after just one game.
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.