2022 NFL Draft: Odds to be selected No. 1 overall
It's never too early to bet on the NFL draft. Even with the 2022 event months away, if there's a market available, there's an opportunity to begin building your valuable draft portfolio. The best part is no one knows anything right now. Many of the teams that will own the top picks are still trying to figure out who will be in the building, with turnover at head coach and other primary decision-making positions.
The fun part about this No. 1 pick market is that unlike 2021, the pick hasn't been predetermined for three years as it was when Trevor Lawrence went to the Jaguars. So while the odds might suggest it's a two-horse race to be selected first overall, a lot can happen in Las Vegas.
| Player to drafted first | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aidan Hutchinson | -110 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | +110 |
| Kenny Pickett | +1000 |
| Evan Neal | +1000 |
| Malik Willis | +2000 |
| Matt Corral | +2500 |
| DeMarvin Leal | +2500 |
| Derek Stingley Jr. | +5000 |
| Sam Howell | +5000 |
| Carson Strong | +6000 |
| Kyle Hamilton | +6500 |
| George Karlaftis | +7000 |
| Drake London | +7500 |
| Jameson Williams | +7500 |
| Tyler Linderbaum | +7500 |
| Charles Cross | +7500 |
| Desmond Ridder | +9000 |
| David Ojabo | +9000 |
| Kenyon Green | +10000 |
| Ikem Ekwonu | +10000 |
| Nakobe Dean | +10000 |
| Garrett Wilson | +12000 |
| Kaiir Elam | +13000 |
| Chris Olave | +13000 |
The one thing the odds suggest is that the top pick won't be a quarterback, which creates numerous possibilities. That's the case for two reasons:
- There isn't a can't-miss prospect available. While that hasn't stopped the NFL cognoscenti before, perhaps teams have learned from failed first overall picks (Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield) that felt forced at the time.
- The team making the pick. The Jaguars need to do what they do best - lose. A loss Sunday means they're on the clock again after the selection of Lawrence failed to help them on the field in 2021. They're not about to give up on a player who was considered the next big thing. Besides, the struggles of Lawrence - plus Zach Wilson and Trey Lance - might have soured teams on desperately trading up for a quarterback.
Like a good horse racing handicapper, we enter this market looking for reasons to fade the favorites. It's a viable approach because there's so much time between now and the draft - time in which the NFL combine and various pro days can drastically change the landscape. Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux are great players, but their respective odds are based largely on what they did on the field for top programs against varying degrees of competition. NFL evaluators need to project forward.
That uncertainty offers bettors a chance to find their own diamond in the rough. We don't know who will impress and, as of now, we don't know who will make the first pick. Last year, Urban Meyer swooped in and grabbed a running back in the first round - a move already widely understood to be a bad value. What might the next decision-maker want?
The answer should be: to keep Lawrence upright. So, instead of a pass-rusher, perhaps the Jaguars select someone to protect their young signal-caller. Offensive tackle is always considered a safe pick and a smart choice for a new regime.
Evan Neal +1000
PFF describes Neal, the Alabama left tackle, as a "mammoth 6-foot-7, 350-pounder (who) is one of the most imposing specimens ever to grace this earth - and he moves like a man 50 pounds lighter." Does that sound like someone who might test well in the next few months?
PFF also notes Neal has only allowed 22 pressures over the past two years between left and right tackle. With Jacksonville looking to protect Lawrence, an athlete who can play both positions seems like a no-brainer.
Charles Cross +7500
Under the same premise, Cross is a longer shot at offensive tackle. the Mississippi State product had enough chances to impress in the Bulldogs' pass-heavy scheme and did so, playing a nearly perfect game even in a loss to Alabama.
Other options
George Karlaftis +7000
What if the Jaguars' decision-makers want a defensive end but don't see the same things other talent evaluators see? It wouldn't be the first time.
Karlaftis, football's "Greek Freak," is considered to have great hands but is also extremely strong. That will test well. At 70-1, you never know.
Garrett Wilson +12000
Maybe the newcomers in Jacksonville have seen how Ja'Marr Chase has helped Joe Burrow and the Bengals and will look to replicate that for Lawrence.
Wilson flies under the radar in the shadow of his more recognizable teammate, Chris Olave. But Wilson is ranked as the better prospect, and without a Kyle Pitts-like tight end available, he might be a good low-investment ticket at 120-1.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.