Loyola Chicago: The long shot that can win the NCAA Tournament
In 2018, Loyola Chicago shocked the college basketball world. The Ramblers entered the NCAA Tournament as a No. 11 seed and ripped off four straight upsets - including three by a combined four points - to reach the Final Four for the second time in school history.
Fast forward three years, and it appears bettors have already forgotten about the once-beloved underdogs. Loyola Chicago is ranked 15th in KenPom and cracked the AP Top 25 this week for the first time since 1985, yet the Ramblers are still 70-1 to win the NCAA Tournament at theScore Bet and can be found as high as 20-1 to reach the Final Four.
This team is even better than the one that reached the semifinals, though it'll likely be under-seeded come March due to a subpar resume. Can Loyola Chicago finish what it started in 2018, or will the Ramblers suffer a fate similar to those of so many mid-major hopefuls before them?
A recipe for tournament success
Part of what made Loyola Chicago's 2018 run so memorable - besides the buzzer-beaters and sideline shots of Sister Jean - was the rarity of it all. Only 17 mid-majors have reached the Final Four since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, and 12 of those teams entered the tourney as top-four seeds.
The last team to pull off the feat was, of course, Loyola Chicago, which relied on elite defense and an efficient inside attack to grind out close victories in 2018. It's the same formula that has guided this year's team: The Ramblers rank eighth in defensive efficiency and 15th in adjusted efficiency margin this season, converting on 60.1% of their inside shots.
That's been a strong combination for mid-majors in recent years. Here's a list of every mid-major team in the KenPom era (since 2002) that finished the regular season ranked top 15 in adjusted efficiency margin and top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency:
| TEAM (SEASON) | SEED | OVERALL RANK | DEFENSE RANK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga (2017) | 1 | 1 | 2 | Runner-up |
| San Diego State (2011) | 2 | 7 | 3 | Sweet 16 |
| Memphis (2009) | 2 | 2 | 1 | Sweet 16 |
| Memphis (2008) | 1 | 3 | 1 | Runner-up |
| Memphis (2007) | 2 | 9 | 9 | Elite Eight |
| Memphis (2006) | 1 | 10 | 5 | Elite Eight |
| Saint Joseph's (2003) | 7 | 13 | 5 | First round |
| Cincinnati (2002) | 1 | 2 | 1 | Second round |
Seven of those eight teams were No. 1 or No. 2 seeds, positions the Ramblers won't benefit from. Still, six of the eight reached the Sweet 16, with two teams advancing all the way to the title game. Both of those squads relied on one key figure during their respective runs: Derrick Rose carried Memphis to a near-perfect campaign, while Gonzaga rode star transfer Nigel Williams-Goss, who ranked fifth in KenPom's Player of the Year standings that season.
This year's fifth-ranked player is Loyola Chicago star Cameron Krutwig, who was a starter on that 2018 team and has terrorized the Missouri Valley Conference this season. The 6-foot-9 senior is averaging 15.5 points on 60.6% shooting, and he's the anchor for an eighth-ranked defense that bleeds the shot clock and rarely allows easy scoring opportunities.
Can the Ramblers win it all?
Those searching for signs of a title run from this Loyola Chicago squad don't have to look far. Sixteen of the 18 teams to win it all since 2002 have entered the tournament ranked in the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and eight of those teams also boasted top-10 defenses.
Seven of the last 10 mid-majors to reach the Final Four ranked higher in defensive efficiency than offensive efficiency, and nearly all of them played at a crawling pace similar to the Ramblers'. That's been a general trend for successful tournament teams; seven of the last 10 national champions ranked outside the top 150 in adjusted tempo, with four outside the top 200.
Most of those champions were more efficient on offense than Loyola Chicago, which currently sits 38th in adjusted offensive efficiency despite ranking sixth in adjusted field-goal percentage (57.8%). There's precedent for winning that way, though. Villanova struggled with inconsistent outside shooting but parlayed a relentless inside scoring attack into a title in 2016. Connecticut's offense ranked 57th in adjusted efficiency entering the 2014 tournament, but a heavy dose of Shabazz Napier cured all ills.
Those two teams also relied heavily on upperclassmen, which is partly why we loved Loyola Chicago entering the season. Four of its starters are seniors, and two of them - Krutwig and Lucas Williamson - were members of the 2018 team that reached the Final Four. This Ramblers squad also features sophomore Marquise Kennedy, the highest-ranked recruit in school history and a game-changing athlete off the bench.
Loyola Chicago has a long climb ahead, starting with this weekend's two-game road series against conference foe Drake. But if this team can take care of business and maintain its current pace heading into the tournament, the Ramblers' long odds to get back to the Final Four - or even win it all - won't last.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.