NFL strength of schedules: Bettors should ignore SOS in favor of this metric
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With the full NFL schedule released Thursday, many bettors immediately raced to search teams' strength of schedule, hoping to find inefficiencies in the futures market. And sometimes that helps - we've even broken down which teams have prime win totals based on that metric.
But "strength of schedule" in a traditional sense is a narrow tool; it only accounts for last season's records, which are a risky way to project future success. The Buccaneers missed the playoffs last year, but is anybody taking them lightly now? Likewise, are opposing teams more afraid of the Texans than the Cowboys because one made the postseason a year ago and the other didn't?
A better way to determine strength of schedule is to consider how opponents are expected to fare this year, not their records from a year ago. So with the full schedule in hand, we analyzed every game on the slate and how it related to teams' 2020 playoff odds courtesy of theScore Bet in New Jersey.
Here is the traditional "strength of schedule" rank and the projected number of playoff-caliber opponents for every team, with some insight on teams whose odds may be worth a second look:
| TEAM | SOS RANK | PLAYOFF OPPONENTS |
|---|---|---|
| Texans | T8 | 10 |
| Falcons | T5 | 9 |
| Rams | T10 | 9 |
| Giants | 26 | 9 |
| Jets | 2 | 8 |
| 49ers | 4 | 8 |
| Lions | T5 | 8 |
| Cardinals | T8 | 8 |
| Vikings | T10 | 8 |
| Broncos | 12 | 8 |
| Bears | T13 | 8 |
| Packers | 15 | 8 |
| Jaguars | 22 | 8 |
| Eagles | 25 | 8 |
| Bengals | 27 | 8 |
| Redskins | 28 | 8 |
| Browns | 29 | 8 |
| Ravens | 32 | 8 |
| Dolphins | 3 | 7 |
| Bills | T5 | 7 |
| Seahawks | T13 | 7 |
| Panthers | T18 | 7 |
| Titans | 20 | 7 |
| Raiders | 21 | 7 |
| Saints | 24 | 7 |
| Cowboys | 30 | 7 |
| Steelers | 31 | 7 |
| Patriots | 1 | 6 |
| Colts | T16 | 6 |
| Chargers | 23 | 6 |
| Buccaneers | T16 | 5 |
| Chiefs | T18 | 5 |
Texans get hosed
If you didn't have enough reason to fade Bill O'Brien's squad next year, just take a look at the schedule. The Texans face 10 projected playoff teams in 2020 - more than any other club - including six in the first seven weeks. Only Denver and Las Vegas play more than four such opponents over a similar stretch (five each).
Of the four teams playing a majority of their games against expected playoff foes, Houston has the shortest odds to make the postseason (+130) at theScore Bet. The Texans could easily enter their Week 8 bye week with four or five losses, which makes a "no" bet at -150 all the more appealing.
Buyer beware on AFC North
Win total bettors have been riding high on the AFC North, which features four of the six easiest schedules by last year's records. Not so fast, though. Despite "easy" SOS ranks, the Bengals (27th), Browns (29th), and Ravens (32nd) all face eight projected playoff teams, tied for fifth-most in the NFL.
The Ravens, in particular, are looking at a harrowing seven-game stretch against playoff favorites from Weeks 6-13, followed by a Week 14 trip to Cleveland. We still like Baltimore's chances to reach its lofty win total of 11.5, but the schedule doesn't do the team any favors.
Chiefs, Bucs with easy roads
As if either of these teams needed more help, the Chiefs and Buccaneers both enter 2020 with five games against oddsmakers' playoff picks - tied for the fewest of any team. Each club plays just three expected postseason squads through the first 11 weeks before they meet in Week 12, followed by one more projected playoff team the rest of the way. So much for average strength of schedule.
As for Tom Brady's old squad? The Patriots luck out, too. They have the "toughest" projected schedule by SOS, yet they're one of five teams set to face six or fewer opponents expected to reach the playoffs, including just one such club in a seven-week stretch to end the year. Some things never change.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.