NFL Week 14 over/under bets: Titans humming under Tannehill
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Each week of the NFL season, we'll highlight some of the best bets on the over/under. Last week, we hit the under in Pittsburgh but fell just short on our other two picks. However, we're still managing a 23-16 overall record heading into a generally low-total week.
Here are our best bets on totals for Week 14.
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
Total: 47
Before this year, the Titans had recorded six straight games with 20 points or more just four times this century, most recently in 2016, before Sunday's offensive explosion in Indianapolis made it five times. All six games in the Titans' 20-point streak have gone over, the second-longest over streak in the NFL this year behind the Bucs' now-snapped nine-game over run.
The six-game stretch, not coincidentally, maps over the six contests that Ryan Tannehill has started this season, which has freed the underrated weapons on this Titans offense. That's bad news for an Oakland defense ranked second-worst in DVOA ratings and fourth-worst in PFF grades.
Tennessee's once-stout defense has been below average as of late, recording a season-worst PFF grade against the Colts last week. This feels like a first-to-30 type of game, much to over bettors' delight.
Pick: Over
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Total: 49
Who would've thought this New England team would see the highest total in any given week? That's the case this week against the Chiefs, who've seemingly rediscovered their offensive mojo with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. Yet the over isn't as easy as it may look here.
For as vulnerable as the Patriots' vaunted defense looked Sunday night, it still only allowed 276 total yards and 16 first downs to the Texans' high-powered attack, which mirrors the Chiefs' offense in many ways. Conversely, Kansas City dropped 40 points on Oakland but only managed 259 yards. Both the Pats' defense and the Chiefs' offense are due for some regression in the points-per-yard ratio, which would help this stay below the number.
Really, the biggest factor here is New England's offense, which has looked lethargic as the team's schedule has ramped up. The Chiefs' defense, ranked 15th in DVOA, is vulnerable on the ground but serviceable in coverage. That should help limit the ceiling on Sunday's final score.
Pick: Under
Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 43
Many things haven't gone right in Pittsburgh this year, but one bright spot is the defense, which saw a marked improvement shortly after the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade and currently ranks first in PFF. The Steelers have recorded an above-average defensive grade for four straight games, allowing 14 points per contest in four consecutive unders, which is tied for the longest active under streak in the league.
The Cardinals' offense was humming for a few weeks before hitting a brick wall against the Rams, owners of PFF's third-ranked defense, in a 34-7 loss last week. Kyler Murray was sacked six times in that defeat and is ranked 25th in passer rating under pressure among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, which could be an issue this week against PFF's top-rated pass-rushing defense.
That's to say nothing of Pittsburgh's offense, which has been a dumpster fire amid major injuries to every skill position. If this game goes over, it'll likely be third-stringer Devlin Hodges carrying it there. Have fun betting on that.
Pick: Under
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.