Free-agent freeze: Where would the top players end up on 1-year deals?

Were you driving around downtown Kansas City today, by any chance? If so, did you see that somewhat-disheveled-but-strangely-athletic-looking dude loitering outside Jack Stack Barbecue at 22nd Street and St. Paul, holding a "Will Hit Homers and Get on Base At a Slightly-Below-League-Average Rate for Food" sign? Folks, that was Mike Moustakas, the suddenly beleaguered two-time All-Star. His plight is that of virtually every big-league free agent these days.

As you're surely aware by now, excepting Lorenzo Cain, Carlos Santana, and Jay Bruce, almost none of baseball's marquee free agents have found work this winter, with a confluence of factors - from specious luxury-tax concerns to shifts in team-building strategy to a CBA that incentivizes losing to possible collusion - keeping perfectly good veteran players unemployed as spring training nears.

Whatever the reason(s), free agency is clearly a buyer's market right now. And while most of the top free agents will end up with reasonably lucrative multi-year deals, some may have to settle for one-year pillow contracts (that, incidentally, will allow them to re-enter the market next winter, when the economic juggernauts that drive the market will have reset their luxury-tax penalties).

Imagine, though, that no team is willing to hand out another multi-year deal this offseason. If every remaining free agent was effectively forced to take a one-year contract, which teams would dust off their chequebooks and jump into the (highly collusive) fray? Well, let's take a guess.

Yu Darvish, RHP

Original prediction: New York Yankees (six years, $175 million)
Revised prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Even after signing Cain to a five-year, $80-million deal, the biggest free-agent contract in franchise history, the Brewers remain a fringe postseason contender at best, requiring repeat performances from some of last year's surprising contributors (e.g. Eric Thames, Travis Shaw) to realistically vie for a wild-card spot. An additional three or four wins, however, would dramatically improve their playoff prospects for 2018. While Milwaukee wouldn't be able to afford Darvish under normal circumstances, the club is so clearly committed to contending this season (after adding Cain and Christian Yelich to the payroll) so it wouldn't be hard to sell ownership on a one-year deal with a huge AAV.

J.D. Martinez, OF

Original prediction: Houston Astros (five years, $137 million)
Revised prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

With both Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock set to hit free agency in the next couple years, the Diamondbacks have to capitalize on their current competitive window, which means they need to bring back Martinez, who blasted 29 homers in 62 games for them down the stretch in 2017. Without him, the Diamondbacks might not have the offensive firepower to hang in what's shaping up to be a highly compelling NL wild-card race (and no, they definitely aren't dethroning the Dodgers.)

Jake Arrieta, RHP

Original prediction: St. Louis Cardinals (five years, $125.5 million)
Revised prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Seemingly unwilling to trade Manny Machado, the Orioles appear to be going for it in 2018 despite their obvious deficiencies, and though executive vice president Dan Duquette admitted this past weekend he isn't quite sure how he'll rebuild his dreadful rotation, reuniting with Arrieta - who spent the first four years of his career with the Orioles before being traded to Chicago in 2013 in one of the more lopsided deals in recent memory - would be a good start.

Eric Hosmer, 1B

Original prediction: Los Angeles Angels (seven years, $120 million)
Revised prediction: Seattle Mariners

As is his wont, Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto has done his fair share of wheeling and dealing this offseason, but after missing out on Shohei Ohtani, he'll need to pull a rabbit out of his hat to snap his club's MLB-leading playoff drought in 2018. With Dan Vogelbach and Ryon Healy both primed to be the Mariners' everyday first baseman in the near future, Hosmer isn't a long-term fit in Seattle, but on a one-year deal, with that second AL wild-card spot looking somewhat attainable, it makes sense.

Alex Cobb, RHP

Original prediction: Milwaukee Brewers (four years, $62 million)
Revised prediction: Washington Nationals

With Bryce Harper set to hit free agency next winter, 2018 may be the Nationals' last shot at a World Series for a while. As such, even with a hilariously easy path to the postseason, the Nationals ought not to leave anything to chance. Between Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez, the rotation is already terrific, but they should still sign Cobb - who crafted a 3.66 ERA over 29 starts in 2017 - enabling them to move Tanner Roark to the bullpen, if need be, and better dictate the developmental pace for top pitching prospect Erick Fedde, who's made just nine starts above Double-A.

Lance Lynn, RHP

Original prediction: Colorado Rockies (four years, $64 million)
Revised prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Much like the Orioles, the Blue Jays don't want to trade their best player, soon-to-be free agent Josh Donaldson, this winter and effectively concede the 2018 campaign. Unlike the Orioles, the Blue Jays have made several moves of consequence in recent weeks to bolster their less-than-rosy playoff chances, adding Randal Grichuk, Curtis Granderson, and Yangervis Solarte. They still need a fifth starter, though, and while Lynn remains attached to draft-pick compensation, he'll be cheaper than both Darvish and Arrieta, and still represents a clear upgrade over Joe Biagini (who could be bumped back into a multi-inning relief role should the Blue Jays add another starter).

Mike Moustakas, 3B

Original prediction: Atlanta Braves (five years, $80 million)
Revised prediction: New York Yankees

With roughly $19 million to spend before incurring luxury-tax penalties, the revamped Yankees ought to dip into free agency to pick up a third baseman; if the season started today, Miguel Andujar would likely patrol the hot corner. Moustakas, who blasted a career-high 38 homers in 2017, would fit perfectly on a one-year deal, especially with that short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, and a short-term commitment wouldn't preclude the club from signing Machado or Donaldson next offseason.