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Where will the top 10 free agents end up?

Matthew Emmons / USA TODAY Sports

Now that the World Series is over and done with, the real fun can begin.

After all, as enjoyable as it was watching the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers do battle, there's no excitement like that of free agency, which begins in earnest Monday afternoon with the end of the quiet period (a five-day window immediately following the World Series during which a player can only negotiate with his former club). So, with the market set to open shortly, we're taking an educated guess as to where this year's top free agents end up signing. Dig it.

Yu Darvish, RHP - New York Yankees

WAR ERA WHIP FIP GB%
3.5 3.86 1.16 3.83 40.7%

DOB: Aug. 16, 1986 (31 years old)
Projected contract: 6 years, $175 million
2017 salary: $11M
Qualifying offer? No

The New York Yankees with money to burn is a terrifying conceit, and doubly so following a season in which they came within one win of the American League pennant. Between Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Jacoby Ellsbury, they have too many outfielders right now (many of them good, too), so they likely won't pursue J.D. Martinez, the top position player available, but - assuming it doesn't eat it into the funds they've set aside for Bryce Harper next year - expect them to go hard after Yu Darvish, the four-time All-Star who crafted a 118 ERA+ with a 27.3 percent strikeout rate over 31 starts in 2017 in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. They have to replace CC Sabathia, remember, and Darvish - who isn't attached to draft-pick compensation - would be the cherry on top of an already strong rotation that features Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, and Sonny Gray.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH - Houston Astros

WAR AVG OPS wRC+ HR
3.8 .303 1.066 166 45

DOB: Aug. 21, 1987 (30 years old)
Projected contract: 5 years, $137M
2017 salary: $11.75M
Qualifying offer? No

No, seriously. The Astros just bashed their way to their first ever World Series title on the backs of several below-market deals (e.g. Correa, Altuve, Springer), so they definitely have the financial wherewithal to accommodate a big free-agent addition. And, as it happens, with Carlos Beltran out the door, the designated hitter spot is wide open for Martinez, who consistently rates as one of the league's worst defensive outfielders but is one of the elite hitters in the game right now. Martinez, who smacked 45 homers in just 119 games this year, is tied for fourth in the majors in wRC+ (148) since 2014, and is one of just two players to hit at least .280 with an isolated power above .225 in each of the last four seasons (min. 480 PA). The other is Mike Trout. If you thought Houston's offense was good in 2017 - and they were; they were historically excellent, in fact, managing a 121 wRC+ - imagine what that lineup would look like with Martinez hitting cleanup. Offense is exponential, after all.

Jake Arrieta, RHP - St. Louis Cardinals

WAR ERA WHIP FIP GB%
2.4 3.53 1.22 4.16 45.1%

DOB: March 6, 1986 (31 years old)
Projected contract: 5 years, $125.5 million
2017 salary: $15.64M
Qualifying offer? Yes

In August, the Cardinals shrewdly shipped Mike Leake to Seattle, reportedly foisting all but $17 million of the $55 million still left on his contract on the Mariners. It's safe to assume, with Lance Lynn now a free agent and deposed ace Adam Wainwright primed to hit the market next winter, general manager John Mozeliak will use the savings to reinvest in his rotation. Despite missing the postseason in 2017 for a second straight season, the Cardinals have a strong core of talent in place - their +56 run differential was sixth-best in the National League last year - and they have too much money committed to too many players to tear things down. Adding Arrieta - the 2015 NL Cy Young award winner who owns a 2.67 ERA (150 ERA+) over the last four seasons - to a starting corps anchored by Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha could turn the Cardinals into an elite run-prevention team, and possibly even position St. Louis to compete for the division title again, especially if Alex Reyes' surgically repaired elbow cooperates.

Eric Hosmer, 1B - Los Angeles Angels

DOB: Oct. 24, 1989 (28 years old)
Projected contract: 7 years, $120M
2017 salary: $12.25M
Qualifying offer? Yes

WAR AVG OPS wRC+ HR
4.1 .318 .882 135 25

Presumably, no team appreciates the perils of handing out massive free-agent contracts better than the Angels, who saw negligible returns on the gargantuan deals they gave Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson. They also continue to employ the game's biggest liability in Albert Pujols, who's still owed another $114 million. Ironically enough, though, with Mike Trout's free agency now only three years away and no impact talent waiting in the wings, the Angels - assuming that trading their star center fielder is a non-starter - have to spend some money to prop open a competitive window that, despite Trout's consistently Herculean efforts, has been mostly shut since he arrived in 2011. Specifically, the Angels need to go outside the organization to improve their offense, which finished ninth-last in the majors in runs per game (4.38) last year, and that starts with an upgrade at first base, given that Luis Valbuena and C.J. Cron combined for a .734 OPS (97 wRC+) in 2017.

Lorenzo Cain, CF - Seattle Mariners

WAR AVG OPS wRC+ HR
4.1 .300 .803 115 15

DOB: April 13, 1986 (31 years old)
Projected contract: 4 years, $81M
2017 salary: $11M
Qualifying offer? Yes

Jerry Dipoto's incessant tinkering over the last couple seasons hasn't had the desired effect (and trading away Chris Taylor really didn't help). Not only do the Mariners still have the longest active postseason drought in the majors, but their core is getting a little long in the tooth, too, with Robinson Cano having just turned 35 and Felix Hernandez poised to celebrate his 32nd birthday shortly after Opening Day. Still, with Nelson Cruz only under contract for one more season, the Mariners should make a go of it in 2018 - they're not that far off from being a wild-card contender, after all - and that means they have to score more runs; their rotation, as constituted, is ugly. Cain, who boasts a 13.1 WAR and an .801 OPS (114 OPS+ ) since 2015, is a perfect fit, as he won't command an exorbitant deal but deepens the Mariners' lineup considerably for 2018, giving them a top-six of Cain, Cano, Cruz, Kyle Seager, Jean Segura, and Mitch Haniger. That's solid.

Alex Cobb, RHP - Milwaukee Brewers

WAR ERA WHIP FIP GB%
2.4 3.66 1.22 4.16 47.8%

DOB: Oct. 7, 1987 (30 years old)
Projected contract: 4 years, $62M
2017 salary: $4.2M
Qualifying offer? Yes

The Brewers' largely anonymous rotation exceeded expectations by a considerable margin in 2017. Jimmy Nelson (4.9 WAR; 3.49 ERA/3.05 FIP) emerged as a down-ballot Cy Young candidate while Chase Anderson and Zach Davies combined for more WAR than Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta did. Still, with the club resolved to contend again following a surprising bid for a wild-card spot in 2017, the starting corps could use a boost. Nelson is expected to miss time this season after undergoing shoulder surgery in September, and their back-of-the-rotation arms in Junior Guerra and Brandon Woodruff, remain uninspired. The solution - for an organization lacking the financial might to vie for Darvish or Arrieta - is Cobb, who enjoyed a solid campaign in 2017 - his first full season back from Tommy John surgery - and was quietly one of the best starters in the American League before having his UCL replaced.

Carlos Santana, 1B/DH - Boston Red Sox

WAR AVG OPS wRC+ HR
3.0 .259 .818 117 23

DOB: April 8, 1986 (31 years old)
Projected contract: 4 years, $82M
2017 salary: $12M
Qualifying offer? Yes

Every year, you know what you're going to get with Santana: an on-base machine who has appeared in fewer than 152 games in a season just once since becoming an everyday player in 2011. In the last seven seasons, Santana has only once accrued less than 2.6 wins above replacement, too, and the 31-year-old delivered again in 2017, putting up more value than all but 11 other first basemen. His reliability should make him really intriguing to the Red Sox, a team with a lot of upside but also a wide range of performance outcomes for so many key players, from Mookie Betts to Xander Bogaerts to Hanley Ramirez, each of whom regressed considerably this past season. Not only would Santana keep Ramirez away from first base, he would also ensure that Sam Travis, who owns a .746 OPS at Triple-A Pawtucket over the last two years, doesn't get regular at-bats. Faced with the very real prospect of fielding a middling offense again next summer, especially after watching Mitch Moreland provide a fraction of the value that Edwin Encarnacion did in 2017, Dave Dombrowski would be remiss not to pursue Santana.

Lance Lynn, RHP - Colorado Rockies

WAR ERA WHIP FIP GB%
1.4 3.43 1.23 4.82 44%

DOB: May 12, 1987 (30 years old)
Projected contract: 4 years, $64M
2017 salary: $7.5M
Qualifying offer? Yes

Lynn, much like Cobb, authored a fine 2017 season after spending the previous year rehabbing his surgically-repaired elbow, and so he, too, remains an attractive target for any team in the market for a mid-rotation starter (i.e. essentially every team with designs of contention). Though his peripherals weren't as impressive this season as they were pre-surgery, Lynn's high floor and durability - save for 2016, Lynn has thrown at least 175 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA every year since his rookie season - should definitely pique the interest of the Rockies. Colorado had just one pitcher qualify for the ERA title in 2016 and were forced to give 20 starts to Antonio Senzatela and another 15 to Tyler Anderson due to a dearth of better depth options. Run prevention is never going to be the Rockies' thing, but adding Lynn would definitely take some pressure off a very young rotation - Chad Bettis, at 28, is their oldest starter - and help Colorado avoid giving more than 20 percent of their starts to scrubs.

Jay Bruce, OF - Cleveland Indians

WAR AVG OPS wRC+ HR
2.7 .254 .832 118 36

DOB: April 3, 1987 (30 years old)
Projected contract: 4 years, $60M
2017 salary: $13M
Qualifying offer? No

Though the Indians' playoff run ended in heartbreak for a second straight year, Bruce - who has enjoyed a real resurgence over the last two years - was a major part of their success down the stretch in 2017, and put up an 1.000 OPS in five postseason games with Cleveland. Moving forward, he may be even more important to the Indians, who are also poised to lose Carlos Santana to free agency and remain beset with the reality that Michael Brantley, who has played only 101 games over the last two seasons, can't be an everyday player anymore. With a World Series title very much in reach in 2018, the Indians would be foolish not to re-sign Bruce, a three-time All-Star who ranks 10th in the majors in homers (69) since the start of 2016; without him, even with a healthy Brantley, the Indians would have to play Yandy Diaz and Lonnie Chisenhall every day, and, well, Chris Antonetti is smarter than that.

Mike Moustakas, 3B - Atlanta Braves

WAR AVG OPS wRC+ HR
2.2 .272 .835 114 38

DOB: Sept. 11, 1988 (29 years old)
Projected contract: 5 years, $80M
2017 salary: $8.7M
Qualifying offer? Yes

Still in the latter stages of a top-down rebuild, the Braves aren't a contender yet, but they're not that far off, either, as the young talent they've spent the last few years cultivating has started graduating to the big leagues. The core pieces of their future, from Ozzie Albies to Sean Newcomb to Luiz Gohara to Dansby Swanson, are all primed to assume major roles with the big-league club in 2018, and with a decent group of veterans already in place (e.g. Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte, Julio Teheran), the roster the front office envisioned at the outset of the rebuild is starting to take shape. To ensure the Braves take the next step in their renaissance, though, they could use some help from outside the organization. As such, Moustakas, a two-time All-Star, will likely be one of their top targets, not only because he fills an area of need on their MLB roster - Johan Camargo isn't projected to be a first-division player - but because, at 29, he aligns with their timeline better than most other free agents.

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