Sage Rosenfels column: Breaking down the divisional round - and what's next
The divisional round was memorable for every franchise that participated - except for the New England Patriots, who captured another uneventful playoff win. Other than Bill Belichick's team, the weekend's wins and losses will have lasting effects on each of the players, coaches, and fan bases.
I consider myself extremely fortunate to have watched the Vikings-Saints game in person. It was one of the greatest sporting events I've ever witnessed live, whether as a player or spectator. Whether you're a Vikings or Saints fan, or even just a media member covering the game, quieting your mind enough to sleep on Sunday night surely wasn't easy.
Let's take a look at the pivotal story lines from that contest - and from each of the others - while looking ahead to the conference championship games on Sunday.
Drew Brees was outstanding in defeat
Let’s start with the Saints and their Hall of Fame quarterback.
Drew Brees turned 39 the day after the game, but played like he has a good five years left in his career. He sliced and diced his way through the No. 1 defense in the league like it was Ball State and he was still setting records at Purdue.
If not for an illegal shift and a tipped pass by a Vikings defensive lineman, Brees would have put two more touchdowns on the board, and the game might not have been that close. His only mistake was a slightly underthrown deep post down the middle to Ted Ginn Jr. that Andrew Sendejo, who was playing shallow before the snap, dropped just deep enough to intercept. Other than that play, Brees was an absolute surgeon all day.
Once the Saints finally got on the board in the third quarter, you could feel the momentum swinging in their favor. Brees and head coach Sean Payton had a brilliant game plan to attack Minnesota's "in your face" man-to-man defense.
The Saints have a talented mix of receivers, tight ends, and running backs who create matchup problems. They are fast, disciplined, and extremely well coached. Rather than trying to beat bump-and-run coverage all day, Payton designed nearly every run and passing play out of formations that eventually caused the Vikings to back off the strategy.
The Saints brought their receivers into "tight" formations where they lined up roughly 5 yards from the tight end or offensive tackles. They also motioned to a lot of bunch and stack sets. These types of formations can cause problems for Mike Zimmer's defense, as the Vikings' linebackers and secondary players get picked and cut off from the men they are covering, leaving the offensive players wide open.
To counteract this, Zimmer instructed his defenders to back off, give the Saints some breathing room, and chase them as plays unfolded. This isn't ideal, and it leads to completed passes, but it also helps prevent explosive plays in man-to-man coverage. The Saints exploited this bunch technique all day.
Conversely, early in the ballgame, the Vikings hit Jarius Wright for a huge gain, which led to a Minnesota touchdown. This occurred because of bump-and-run coverage against a stacked Vikings formation, while the Saints got "legally" picked on the play. But New Orleans took a chance and stayed with the bump coverage.
The bottom line is that the Vikings didn't want to risk a big play and went away from their traditional pass defense. Despite the loss, Payton is an offensive genius because of his game planning, while his 39-year-old quarterback is still the perfect man to pull the trigger in his offense.
Brees is a free agent this offseason, but he likely isn't going anywhere.
Case Keenum, Gunslinger
The Vikings had the No. 1 defense in the NFL this season, but got exposed by Brees. Luckily, they won't face him this week in Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, Case Keenum played pretty much as he has all season. He was accurate on the majority of his throws, made a couple fantastic off-schedule plays, and made one huge mistake. This is why Vikings fans love Keenum, but it's also why they were chewing their fingernails in the second half against New Orleans.
Let's remove the final (miracle) play of the game - which was a great throw by Keenum - and break down two others that hugely impacted the outcome.
Despite Minnesota leading 17-7 with a minute left in the third quarter, the momentum had swung the Saints' way after they scored their first touchdown of the day. And Keenum immediately handed them a gift as he forced a throw to Stefon Diggs down the right sideline instead of taking a sack. Sometimes the best play is taking a small loss and moving on. That interception is the type of negative play that Keenum must stay away from in Philly.
The best of Keenum, other than the final play, was on the Vikings' second-last drive. He got the snap, looked left to find his receivers blanketed, and looked back to the right where Adam Thielen was running a slant. Thielen and Keenum have developed a bond, and both instinctively saw the same thing.
Thielen turned his slant into a corner, Keenum gave his No. 1 receiver a chance, and that combination resulted in an incredible play that set up a go-ahead field goal.
The Vikings will need the best of Keenum against the Eagles. And if he can stay away from that one bad play he seems to make each week, Minnesota will have an extremely good chance of becoming the first team in history to play in a Super Bowl at home.
Falcons underutilize their weapons
We'll know in the coming weeks if the Atlanta Falcons opt to retain offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian.
In football, coaching matters more than any other sport. After losing Kyle Shanahan to the San Francisco 49ers last offseason, Atlanta knew it would be nearly impossible to find someone who could fill his shoes. The team hired Sarkisian - who's a well-respected offensive mind - but after 18 games, it's obvious his creativity and detail didn't come close to what Shanahan created over the previous two seasons.
The 2017 Falcons had as much offensive talent as any team in the NFL. They have two powerful and explosive running backs, an elite duo at wide receiver, and a quarterback in Matt Ryan who was the MVP twelve months ago. But every day, their offense's window is closing - running backs get old fast in the NFL, while players like Julio Jones begin to lose a step as they approach 30 years old.
If Sarkisian stays, he must find a way to take advantage of his players' talents. If he gets fired, head coach Dan Quinn has to find the right replacement. This is the No. 1 decision that the Falcons must make this offseason, as scoring only ten points in the most important game of the year was unacceptable, even against a strong Eagles defense.
Eagles need a great plan for Vikings
Head coach Doug Pederson will need to come up with a unique game plan to attack the Vikings this week. The Falcons played a ton of zone defense, allowing free access to wide receivers. This gives up easy completions, but prevents explosive plays. That won't happen against the Vikings, as they prefer to pressure opponents in bump-and-run coverage whenever possible.
Also, the Eagles don't have the same personnel threats in the passing game that the Saints do, which created havoc for the Vikings. Specifically, Alvin Kamara was a matchup nightmare for Minnesota, but the Eagles don't have that type of multi-dimensional player on their roster.
Pederson will need to watch the Vikings-Saints tape and come up with formations and motions to help his players get open. Running the football, which is possible against the Vikings, will be the No. 1 component of Philadelphia's offensive game plan. If the offense can't move the ball on the ground, I'm not sure it has the passing firepower to beat the Vikings.
Tom Brady makes it look easy (again)
There's no need to say much about Tom Brady and the Patriots. They did what we all expected, dominating the Titans for the majority of the game. Yes, the officials made a few bad calls that went New England's way, but that’s like being up to your ears in cow manure and complaining about the smell.
The Patriots were the better team because they have better players and coaches. Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time, and he's on track for another Super Bowl title.
Marcus Mariota, Titans starting over
Tennessee's offense was underwhelming all season, and the team hopes to change that going forward, which is why it fired head coach Mike Mularkey.
Regardless of who the Titans hire as their next head coach, the offensive coordinator needs to be creative enough to take advantage of Marcus Mariota's unique skill set. Tennessee is a good football team already, but has no chance of beating the NFL's elites with an offense still stuck in the '90s.
Blake Bortles must be great
Experts have been doubting Blake Bortles since last year's mediocre campaign. His lack of production came to a boiling point during the 2017 preseason, when he looked like a poor backup quarterback. Yet, he ultimately played just well enough to get the Jaguars to the AFC Championship Game, but will need the best performance of his career to knock off the Patriots on the road.
Belichick will game plan to take away the Jaguars' run game - if that’s possible - and put all the pressure on Bortles. Luckily for Jacksonville, the Patriots don't have a consistent pass rush, so Bortles should have time to find some completions. He has the talent, but we haven't seen his best very often across his four-year career. He will need it this weekend.
Big Ben: If not now, when?
A year ago, Ben Roethlisberger contemplated retirement. But as soon as the Steelers lost to the Jaguars on Sunday, he immediately announced that he'd be back next season. Still, whether next year or the year after, Big Ben will be retiring soon. The Steelers must be prepared as well, which means it's time to find a replacement. Even if Roethlisberger's successor doesn't play much for the first year or two, he could spend valuable time on the bench learning from a seasoned veteran.
The NFL is increasingly becoming a league of quarterbacks who are accurate pocket passers as well as playmakers when the pocket breaks down. Those were Roethlisberger's strengths for the majority of his career, but his age (35) and size won't help in those areas moving forward. At this point, he's becoming more vulnerable in the pocket while making fewer off-schedule plays that helped define his Hall of Fame career.
Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football. Find him on Twitter @SageRosenfels18.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)