Why the Red Sox need to stay away from Hosmer

The American League East division can be easily compared to a high-stakes game of chess. Instead of five worthy combatants, the most proficient players are the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, led by none other than Brian Cashman and Dave Dombrowski.

The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays are on the way out, while the Toronto Blue Jays desperately try to compete with a counter-attack of their own. Cashman, the current leader, made the boldest move yet by adding his king in the form of Giancarlo Stanton.

With Stanton in New York, pressure is on Dombrowski and the Red Sox to match their division rivals by going out and acquiring a big bat. Even if the Yankees hadn't traded for the 2017 National League MVP, Boston was in need of upgrades after back-to-back ALDS exits. On Day 4 of the winter meetings, it was reported the Red Sox want to sign both J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer.

The club's pursuit of Martinez makes sense. He's the best offensive player available, and Boston is always willing to spend on the open market. Martinez is also a fit because he's going to cost anywhere from $120-130 million over five or six years. That's fine, because the slugging outfielder can immediately slot in as the team's designated hitter, moving Hanley Ramirez to first base and keeping an already good outfield in tact.

On his own, Martinez would be a risky but formidable add. Hosmer, said to be coveting a deal in the $200-million range, will have to settle for lower and should get around the same as Martinez, perhaps on a seven-year deal due to his age (28).

That is just one reason the Red Sox should avoid signing him this offseason.

The market has one viable alternative in the form of 31-year-old Carlos Santana. The former Cleveland Indians first baseman enters free agency with a ton of suitors. Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox are one of them. There's a lot to like about Santana, starting with the fact he's going to come a lot cheaper with far less term. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him sign a three- or four-year deal worth approximately $50 million.

If that isn't attractive enough, Santana has earned a reputation as one of baseball's most durable first baseman with a knack at getting on base. Since 2015, Santana is third among qualified AL first baseman with a .362 OBP and first in walk rate (14.6 percent).

If Dombrowski prefers to go the trade route, consider Jose Abreu. The Red Sox have been linked to the Chicago White Sox first baseman, who would be an even better addition than Santana and a far wiser investment than Hosmer.

While Santana excels at getting on base, Abreu can mash. Since signing with the White Sox in 2013 as an international free agent, the slugger has averaged 31 home runs per season, hitting .301/.359/.524 (142 OPS+) across four years. He's the ideal trade target for Boston, though negotiations between both sides seem to have fizzled out in recent weeks due to the White Sox sudden reluctance to trade him.

Combined numbers since 2015

Though Hosmer's numbers aren't bad, it should be noted he's been widely inconsistent on a year-to-year basis ranging from an above-average offensive contributor to one barely over replacement level. For interested parties willing to invest tons of term and money in a guaranteed deal, that's a concern.

Even though it's common for a player's form to fluctuate, it appears to be a trend with Hosmer. He's coming off a career year, and his performance was good all around in 2017, but there are few free agents as polarizing and harder to predict.

If the Red Sox want to keep up with the Yankees, their next move shouldn't be signing Hosmer to a long-term, big-money deal. Investing in Martinez and then going hard after one of Santana, Abreu, or another first baseman is the path Dombrowski should take.

The Red Sox are still very much alive as Cashman and the Yankees eagerly await what Dombrowski will do next. Your move, Boston.

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

(Statistics courtesy: FanGraphs)