The Red Sox should trade for Abreu and save a fortune
It was nearly one year ago that Dave Dombrowski and the Boston Red Sox made a gigantic splash at the winter meetings by acquiring pitcher Chris Sale from the Chicago White Sox for a package of prospects.
Dombrowski and White Sox GM Rick Hahn could be due for an encore when the 2017 edition of the meetings gets underway in Orlando, Fla., on Dec. 10.
That's because the Red Sox and White Sox are in "active talks" regarding a trade for first baseman Jose Abreu, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, which could give Boston the piece it needs to reach the World Series for the first time since 2013.
Acquiring Abreu might cost the Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. - who they're reportedly dangling, according to MLB.com's Phil Rogers - or some combination of prospects like Michael Chavis, Sam Travis, or Tsu-Wei Lin.
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has argued that giving up Bradley Jr. - who's racked up more WAR than Abreu over the past three seasons due to defense and baserunning - would be a mistake. If Dombrowski agrees, he'll likely have to pluck deeply from his team's prospect pool to get a deal done.
Meanwhile, Boston has also been linked to other difference-making sluggers such as Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton and free-agent first Eric Hosmer, but the Red Sox should save themselves a fortune, pony up the prospects, and trade for Abreu. Here's why:
He's better than who's available in free agency
Mitch Moreland, Hanley Ramirez, and four other Red Sox players combined to rank 13th in the AL in OPS (.749) last season among first baseman. Boston also missed the powerful presence of David Ortiz in the heart of its lineup, finishing last in the AL in home runs. Abreu would address both areas of concern and is a better option than any first baseman the Red Sox could acquire via free agency.
2017 Stats
| PLAYER | PA | H | 2B | HR | RBI | OPS+ | DRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 675 | 189 | 43 | 33 | 102 | 140 | 0 |
| Logan Morrison | 601 | 126 | 22 | 38 | 85 | 135 | 1 |
| Eric Hosmer | 671 | 192 | 31 | 25 | 94 | 132 | -7 |
| Carlos Santana | 667 | 148 | 37 | 23 | 79 | 112 | 10 |
| Mitch Moreland | 576 | 125 | 34 | 22 | 79 | 99 | 10 |
Not only did Abreu post better overall numbers than free-agent first basemen like Hosmer, Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, and Moreland this past season, but during his four seasons in North America, the 30-year-old Cuban has performed better than those same four players have at Fenway Park.
Career at Fenway Park
| PLAYER | PA | H | 2B | HR | RBI | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 73 | 23 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 145 |
| Eric Hosmer | 109 | 35 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 129 |
| Mitch Moreland | 334 | 81 | 22 | 14 | 49 | 126 |
| Carlos Santana | 115 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 104 |
| Logan Morrison | 96 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 82 |
Boston plays the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, and Baltimore Orioles more than any other teams in baseball, and Abreu has also proven to be more successful against the current No. 1 starters of those Red Sox rivals.
Career OPS vs. AL East's No. 1s
| PLAYER | STROMAN | BUNDY | TANAKA | ARCHER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | .938 | 1.711 | .833 | .722 |
| Eric Hosmer | .708 | 762 | .000 | .284 |
| Mitch Moreland | .829 | .258 | .610 | .748 |
| Logan Morrison | .598 | 1.462 | .642 | .333 |
| Carlos Santana | .708 | .400 | .975 | 1.000 |
He's more affordable than other stars
The Red Sox could go a different route and upgrade their offense by acquiring the likes of Stanton from Miami, or by signing a slugging outfielder like J.D. Martinez in free agency or spending the dollars on Hosmer, who made two World Series appearances and won a title with Kansas City. But, Abreu should be cheaper than those options next season, and provide more value than any of them aside from Stanton.
| PLAYER | WAR | DOLLARS | '18 SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 4.1 | $33.1 | $17.9M* |
| Eric Hosmer | 4.1 | $33.1 | $22M* |
| J.D. Martinez | 3.8 | $30.6 | $25M* |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 6.9 | $55.5 | $25M |
*Projected salary through arbitration or free-agent prediction
Yes, Abreu would cost prospect capital as opposed to physical dollars, but the Red Sox want to win now, and having a deep prospect pool won't accomplish that mission.
The commitment is low
Unlike Stanton, Abreu would come with a low commitment to money and term. Through arbitration, Abreu could take home somewhere between $35 million and $40 million over the next two seasons, assuming he doesn't regress. That would give the Red Sox options; if Abreu falls off, the team can move on after two campaigns. Stanton, on the other hand, is signed through 2028 for big money - he can opt out after 2020 - while free agents like Hosmer and Martinez are looking for deals in the seven-to-ten year range.
All things considered, Abreu seems like a fantastic fit for the Red Sox. Trading for the slugger could save them from spending a ton of cash in a thin free-agent market or via trades, fills a position of need, addresses some areas of concern, and gives them a chance to advance past the AL Division Series next season.
He makes sense for so many reasons. It's time to make the move, Boston.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
(Stats courtesy: Baseball Reference, Fangraphs)
(Projections & Predictions courtesy: MLB Trade Rumors)