Sage Rosenfels column: Expect fireworks as AFC division title races heat up

No NFL team is perfect. Whoever ends up winning the Super Bowl this year will do so not because they have no weaknesses, but rather because their strengths and determination will outweigh their faults.

With only five weeks left in the regular season, the race for the twelve playoff spots is getting tight. In the AFC, after the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, the rest of the conference is up for grabs. The AFC South and West are completely wide open, with teams who looked out of the playoffs a few weeks ago suddenly back in the picture.

Here's a breakdown of who legitimately has a shot in each AFC division, and what issues may keep them out of the playoffs.

AFC East

New England Patriots

After starting the season 2-2, the NFL world had exactly one week for their annual “what’s wrong with the Patriots” storylines. Seven weeks and seven wins later, the Patriots look to be on a crash course with the Steelers in the AFC Championship game.

Any 9-2 team has very few real weaknesses. Unlike last year, when the Patriots led the NFL in defensive points given up, their main issues lie on that side of the ball.

They are giving up 385 yards of offense to opponents, including 270 through the air. Both stats are ranked in the NFL's bottom three. This statistic is a bit deceiving as the Pats have been up by two or more touchdowns in multiple games during their seven-game winning streak.

Teams who are losing throw the ball more, and the Pats are fine with giving up yards as long as their opponents aren’t scoring points. Fortunately, they are only giving up 20 points per game, good for 11th in the league.

The Pats are making another run, but Tom Brady might have to carry the load a little more than last year.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo is the Jekyll and Hyde franchise of 2017.

Early in the season, they looked like a team that was finally turning the corner and could find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2000. At Halloween, the Bills were 5-2 and getting ready for a three-game run against three teams who missed the playoffs last year.

Sure enough, Buffalo lost all three.

The Bills saved their season Sunday with a huge win at the Chiefs. At 6-5, they are squarely in the playoff picture. What do they have to do over the next five weeks to secure their first playoff berth in 17 years?

Buffalo is one of those rare teams with a winning record, yet has been outscored by opponents. Their offense and defense both rank in the NFL's bottom fifth. They are giving up almost 60 more yards a game than they are earning.

During that three-game losing streak, they gave up 34, 47, and 54 points to the Jets, Saints, and Chargers, respectively. Their defense came to play Sunday​​​​​​, allowing only 10 points to the struggling Chiefs. But the offense mustered only 16 points to squeak out a win.

The Bills play New England twice during their next five games, which would make you believe they won’t make the playoffs. But, their other three games are two against Miami and the Colts at home. They have a legitimate shot at going 9-7 and getting into the postseason since the AFC is top-heavy this year

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger just doesn’t have it anymore. Yeah ,right.

The Steelers have won six in a row since Big Ben announced he isn’t the quarterback he used to be. They're sitting at 9-2 and are walking away with the division. I have little doubt that home field advantage is on the minds of Mike Tomlin’s team.

They have few weaknesses. Statistically, they are highly ranked in most major categories on offense and defense. They don’t have a lot of serious injuries as we head down the stretch. Rookie standout JuJu Smith-Schuster didn’t play Sunday, but usually hamstring injuries don’t last more than a few weeks.

The suspension of right tackle Marcus Gilbert for performance-enhancing drugs is an issue for the next three weeks. The final game of his suspension, against the Patriots, could be a preview of the AFC Championship game.

Roethlisberger is a playoff and Super Bowl veteran who is dispersing the ball to the NFL's best collection of weapons. If he and his teammates can stay healthy, we could see Roethlisberger ride off into the sunset with a third Super Bowl victory.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens don’t look like a playoff team but are still in the hunt at 6-5. Their offense is one of the NFL's worst; the Joe Flacco-led passing attack is sitting dead last at 165 yards a game. But they're still in contention thanks to a defense that's giving up only 17 points per game.

After playing the Lions and Steelers, the Ravens end the season with possibly the league's easiest three-game stretch. They play at Cleveland, then at home versus the Colts and Bengals. Nine wins is a real possibility for Baltimore, and it may be just enough to get them into the postseason.

AFC South

Tennessee Titans

Somehow, Tennessee is 7-4 despite being outscored by 27 points on the season. When they lose, they lose badly.

This team doesn’t win pretty, either. They are one of the NFL's best at stopping the run, and control the ball on offense by using both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry effectively. Combined, they should rush for around 1400 yards this year.

Tennessee’s passing attack is their biggest concern. They lack a true No. 1 receiver, which is why tight end Delanie Walker is leading the team in receiving. Teams without multiple weapons on the outside don’t get far in the NFL’s postseason.

More importantly, quarterback Marcus Mariota has been struggling. His career high four interceptions versus the Steelers was followed by two interceptions last weekend. He's thrown eight interceptions in his last four games. By contrast, he's only thrown nine touchdowns all season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have the NFL's best team/worst quarterback combination. They have the No. 1 defensive unit, giving up only 15.3 points per game. They're also ranked first in rushing as Leonard Fournette and Co. are averaging 154 yards per game on the ground. Five players, including their quarterback, have at least 179 yards rushing.

Since the preseason, quarterback Blake Bortles has been the biggest question mark. It’s a significant issue given the Jaguars are built to win now in almost every other area. His saving grace is that his interceptions and sacks are down this year, but so are his touchdowns and yards.

He's also helping with his legs, something that shouldn’t be overlooked. A quarterback who can run (Bortles has 257 rushing yards) can be extremely effective getting key first downs, and touchdowns, in close playoff games.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have taken the 2016 Vikings' role as the squad with the hottest start to the year, followed by a dreadful middle third of the season. They've lost three in a row, including a rare Andy Reid loss after a bye week. The only team to beat the Eagles has lost to Dallas, the Giants, and the Bills in its last three games. This team is falling fast.

Their defense has been poor most of the year, and their offense has gone dry since Halloween. They rank 27th in total defense, struggling to stop both the run and pass.

In their last three games, the Chiefs have averaged only 13 points. Their untraditional “Spread Coast” offense seems to have been figured out by opposing defenses. Benching Alex Smith and starting rookie Patrick Mahomes II is a hot topic among Chiefs fans, but I don’t see that happening until Kansas City loses the division lead.

Los Angeles Chargers

For the record, I hate typing "Los Angeles Chargers." It doesn’t feel right. Having said that, I also don’t love writing about teams with sub-.500 records getting into the postseason at this stage of the season either. But because the AFC West is having a disaster of a year, I guess I'll have to move forward.

Philip Rivers is quietly having a very good season. He has a 95 quarterback rating, with 20 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions. Two young stars - Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon - are the main reasons for Rivers’ success.

Their No. 1 concern is their inability to stop the run. They are giving up 133 rushing yards per game, which is dead last in the league. Fortunately, they keep teams out of the end zone. Opposing offenses are only scoring 18 points per game against them.

The Chargers started the year 0-4 and have since won five of seven. The Chiefs are reeling. The Broncos are all but done. The Raiders have serious defensive issues. Add it all up and the Chargers have a real shot to win the division. This would be huge for the organization in general, as the move to Los Angeles has been unpopular since the day it was announced.

Oakland Raiders

Like the Chargers, the Raiders have crept back into the hunt for the AFC West title, having won two of their last three during the Chiefs three-game slide.

Their strength since Jack Del Rio became head coach has been their offense. Derek Carr is having a solid, but unspectacular, season. He has three receiving threats in Jared Cook, Michael Crabtree, and Amari Cooper. We'll know this week if Crabtree's two-game suspension is upheld on appeal.

The issue with their offense is their lack of big plays. Cook, Crabtree, and Cooper all have 42 catches this season. Cook, a tight end, is leading the team in yards per catch average at 12.8. That's almost never a good sign.

The main story this year in Oakland has been their defense. They are ranked 24th in total defense, which is one reason why defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. was fired last week.

The Raiders should win this week versus the Giants, and then they'll head to Kansas City for a game which could decide their season’s fate.

Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football. Find him on Twitter @SageRosenfels18.

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)