4th and Short: Vikings 2nd-best in the NFC, Buccaneers in trouble
Matt Williamson is a former scout for the Cleveland Browns and spent 10 years at ESPN as a scout and co-host of "The Football Today Podcast."
Are the Buffalo Bills playoff-bound?
The Bills are 5-2, just a half-game behind New England in the AFC East. The Steelers and Patriots are the only two AFC teams with a superior record.
This is a very well-coached team with a distinct recipe for victories. Running the ball is a key component of Buffalo's offense, but the unit's also gotten good performances from Tyrod Taylor. Not only has he avoided crucial mistakes, he's mixing in big plays. They've also given him an additional weapon with the acquisition of wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin from Carolina.
On defense, the Bills are not sophisticated, but they are fundamentally sound.
But the key is turnovers. The Bills are plus-14 in turnover differential and the next-closest team, Jacksonville, is only plus-8.
No club is getting more out of its roster than Buffalo, but how sustainable is this success? You have to expect the turnover margin to regress to the mean to some degree, and while coaching can go a long way, this team isn't loaded with talent. The Bills even traded Marcell Dareus in a salary dump just a few days ago.
Their offseason plan was obviously oriented toward building for the future - Buffalo's loaded with draft picks and salary-cap space - and it's an exciting outlook, but contention could be a little farther off than it appears. The Bills might end up in the 2017 playoffs, but this could just as easily be the high-water mark of their season. Regardless, Sean McDermott deserves strong consideration for coach of the year.
Is Deshaun Watson a top-8 quarterback?
Let's get this out of the way: I wasn't a fan of Watson coming out of Clemson and I am still slow to come around on this young man. But even I can’t ignore what Watson's brought to the table for the Texans. He's making a ton of plays, improving by the week, and making those around him better (though he's probably the luckiest quarterback in the league in terms of getting away with "interceptable" passes).
What he's doing can’t be denied, but a top-eight quarterback? That's too rich so early in his career.
With Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck on the shelf, we won’t count them. Obviously, Tom Brady is better than Watson, as are Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, and Russell Wilson. Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning are declining, and while it's actually debatable whether they're still better than Watson, it's almost like comparing apples to oranges.
Matt Ryan isn’t playing nearly as well as last year, but let’s safely put the reigning MVP over the rookie right now. Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott are much further along in their development and are better all-around players. What about Derek Carr?
Tyrod Taylor, Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins, and Cam Newton have their warts, but Taylor and Smith are having very strong years. Cousins has also played well and Newton's career has featured its share of high points.
Watson is doing great things, but he'll need a more significant body of work to get ahead of some of these names in the quarterback pecking order.
Is Minnesota the 2nd-best team in the NFC?
The form of this question indicates that the 7-1 Eagles are the class of the conference. That is probably fair at this point. But are the Vikings the superior team right now to Seattle, Los Angeles, New Orleans, Carolina, and Dallas - the latter of which appears to be without Ezekiel Elliott for the next six games?
It is pretty incredible that Minnesota is 6-2 despite playing the majority of the year with a backup quarterback and without Dalvin Cook. Stefon Diggs has also missed significant time. But unlike last season, the Vikings' offensive line hasn’t crippled the entire undertaking, and Mike Zimmer's defense is in the conversation as the very best in the NFL.
Will the Vikings go to Teddy Bridgewater or back to Sam Bradford if that soon becomes an option? There's a good chance the quarterback situation will become their fatal flaw this year, but at the end of October, the Vikings are indeed the NFC's second-best outfit and one of the best half-dozen or so teams in the league.
Where do the Buccaneers go from here?
Dirk Koetter's seat must be getting really warm.
Tampa Bay scored just three points at home against the Panthers on Sunday. Still, only three offenses are averaging more yards per game than Tampa Bay (which put up 60 points combined in Week 6 and 7). The real culprit in their 2-5 record is the defense.
The Buccaneers are a very heavy zone-based defense and are not particularly complex on this side of the ball. The problem is that Tampa doesn’t rush the passer nearly well enough to play that style, and the secondary is often overmatched. It's possible for Tampa Bay to go back to the drawing board and design more pressure-happy packages, but that would put a lot of stress on an already struggling defensive backfield.
One thing that might reduce the strain: leaning more heavily on Doug Martin and the running attack to shorten games.
To get back on the winning track, Koetter's only option might be trying to outshoot the Buccaneers' opponents in high-scoring affairs. Unfortunately, while Jameis Winston is extremely promising, he's so up-and-down at this stage that he likely couldn't pull it off consistently enough to save Tampa Bay's season.
Any way you cut it, this organization has underachieved and is now in big trouble.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)