The Senators are better off with Phaneuf
It has been a customarily quiet offseason in Canada's capital, as the Ottawa Senators have retained backup goaltender Mike Condon and added depth forward Nate Thompson.
No major moves were expected after the Sens finished the 2016-17 season one double-overtime goal short of a Stanley Cup Final appearance. The team has just shy of $11 million in salary cap space remaining, according to Cap Friendly, and just need to re-sign restricted free-agent forwards Ryan Dzingel and Jean-Gabriel Pageau.
But despite the quiet blanketing the team, rumors continue to emerge regarding the future of defenseman Dion Phaneuf. With four years at an annual average value of $7 million remaining on his contract, Phaneuf is the team's second-highest paid player, behind forward Bobby Ryan. The Senators willingly took on Phaneuf and his contract in a February 2016 trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but there's no denying the difficulties it creates.
For the Senators, it's a more tolerable hindrance than any similarly poor contract they'd need to take on in a potential trade.
He's better than the alternatives
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
Phaneuf has one strong pro in his favor by default: he plays defense. Many of the league's other egregious contracts have been awarded to forwards, with Los Angeles Kings forwards Dustin Brown and Marian Gaborik among the names being circulated in connection to the Senators.
With Brown and Gaborik coming off a season in which they combined for just 57 points, neither factors into the top six of a team hoping to build off an Eastern Conference Final appearance. The re-signing of forward Tom Pyatt and addition of Thompson cemented the Sens' bottom-six forward group - at least in their eyes.
The Senators have used four of their past five first-round draft picks on forwards, making defense the greater team need both in the present and long term.
He's not that bad
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
The Senators and head coach Guy Boucher utilized a defense-first system last year which relied on forcing their opponents into low-quality scoring chances and capitalizing on offense whenever possible. While the system propelled them to within a game of the Stanley Cup Final, it resulted in poor Corsi For ratings for most of the team, especially the defensemen.
| NAME | TOI | CF% |
|---|---|---|
| Fredrik Claesson | 398:48 | 53.59 |
| Chris Wideman | 893:34 | 52.53 |
| Erik Karlsson | 1481:06 | 49.72 |
| Mark Borowiecki | 905:07 | 48.53 |
| Marc Methot | 1135:33 | 47.56 |
| Dion Phaneuf | 1363:01 | 46.66 |
| Cody Ceci | 1407:45 | 45.69 |
Here's a look at the possession influence Phaneuf and Ceci, his typical 5-on-5 partner, had as individuals on some of their most common linemates.
Corsi For with and without Phaneuf (stats at 5-on-5 in games where both players were active):
| NAME | TOI | WITH | WITHOUT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Ceci | 881:01 | 45.03 | 46.80 |
| Derick Brassard | 385:21 | 52.25 | 54.93 |
| Kyle Turris | 380:40 | 48.87 | 47.66 |
| Mike Hoffman | 350:31 | 50.00 | 50.54 |
| Mark Stone | 343:01 | 53.29 | 54.63 |
| Erik Karlsson | 228:01 | 50.43 | 49.59 |
| Fredrik Claesson | 18:28 | 58.06 | 52.40 |
Corsi For with and without Ceci (stats at 5-on-5 in games where both players were active):
| NAME | TOI | WITH | WITHOUT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Phaneuf | 881:01 | 45.03 | 49.78 |
| Derick Brassard | 393:46 | 49.80 | 55.88 |
| Kyle Turris | 387:37 | 47.64 | 47.98 |
| Mike Hoffman | 342:28 | 48.35 | 50.99 |
| Mark Stone | 353:24 | 50.75 | 56.24 |
| Erik Karlsson | 31:09 | 53.23 | 49.29 |
| Fredrik Claesson | 42:55 | 50.00 | 51.81 |
While Phaneuf's personal chart doesn't present him in an endearing light, it's important to remember that most commonly with and without him also meant having Ceci on the ice. The true testament to Phaneuf's play last season can be more evidently seen through Ceci's WOWY chart.
Without Ceci on the ice, nearly all of the Senators' most important forwards noticed a significant spike in possession. Phaneuf was left on the ice with a different defense partner in many of those situations.
Much of the blame Phaneuf takes for his own defensive play should be placed on, or at least shared with, Ceci.
Help is on the way
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
While the Sens lost defenseman Marc Methot to the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars in the Expansion Draft and subsequent trade, they expect to have 2015 first-round pick Thomas Chabot in the lineup on a full-time basis in 2017-18.
As seen above, Methot had the third-worst 5-on-5 Corsi For rating among the team's regular defensemen. In his place, the Senators will substitute a player who was the 2017 World Junior Hockey Championships MVP, as well as the QMJHL defenseman of the year and playoff MVP.
Boucher will have the ability to break up the failed Phaneuf/Ceci pairing, putting the former in a tandem with Karlsson, Claesson, or Chabot.
The results can't be much worse.
(All statistics courtesy naturalstattrick.com and applied to 5-on-5 situations)