Fantasy: Draft this guy, not that guy

The secret to success in fantasy football is finding value. Knowing when to pass on drafting a player because you know you can get a comparable or even better player a few rounds later is a powerful weapon.

Below, we identify six scenarios involving similar players where we actually prefer the one who comes cheaper.

Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of FantasyPros and is based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.

QB

Draft Marcus Mariota, not Dak Prescott

Prescott ADP: QB10
Mariota ADP: QB13

The Cowboys are "America's Team," and that national popularity pushes the perceived fantasy value of their stars higher than it should go.

There's no better example of this than Prescott, who's going off the board more than two rounds earlier than Mariota in fantasy leagues despite producing only 0.6 more fantasy points per game in 2016.

There are reasons to be optimistic about Prescott this season, to be sure. He plays behind one of the best offensive lines in football and is supported by an excellent rushing attack. But you can say the exact same things about Mariota, and his receiving weapons are now better than Prescott's, with the addition of Corey Davis and Eric Decker this offseason.

He's the young passer you should target.

RB

Draft Joe Mixon, not Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey ADP: RB14
Mixon ADP: RB17

McCaffrey is a truly electric talent, and the Panthers believe he'll transform their offense, as evidenced by the team investing a top-10 draft pick in him.

But tap the brakes on him becoming a high-end fantasy asset from Day 1. Jonathan Stewart remains on the roster and the Panthers' website recently projected that the veteran will still handle most of the carries. It appears likely the rookie will be used as a slot receiver and gadget player - not necessarily roles that are conducive to fantasy success.

Mixon makes a smarter investment at his ADP, as he's more of a conventional workhorse tailback and has a cleaner path to touches with Giovani Bernard still recuperating from ACL surgery and Jeremy Hill coming off consecutive disappointing seasons.

The Bengals' leaky offensive line and abundance of other weapons (A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, and Mixon's fellow rookie, John Ross) could hurt Mixon's upside, and seem to have pushed down his ADP, but those same issues exist in Carolina, where the offensive line is equally porous and Cam Newton steals red-zone rushes.

Draft Thomas Rawls, not Eddie Lacy

Lacy ADP: RB25
Rawls ADP: RB48

Rawls failed to impress as the Seahawks' lead back last season, prompting the team to sign Lacy, but his struggles may have been the result of him still battling a major leg injury suffered in 2015.

With Lacy sidelined this spring as he recovers from ankle surgery, Rawls drew praise for his performance at OTAs. Now fully healthy, he could carry over his momentum into training camp and hold off Lacy for the starting job, particularly if Lacy shows up overweight or is slowed by his ankle. At the very least, the pair appear headed to a 50-50 split.

C.J. Prosise remains in the mix and will handle work on receiving downs, limiting the fantasy upside of both Lacy and Rawls. Prosise also makes a solid draft pick at his ADP.

But for owners seeking the most potential bang for their buck in this backfield, Rawls is the guy.

WR

Draft DeVante Parker, not Jarvis Landry

Landry ADP: WR18
Parker ADP: WR41

It's impossible to ignore the hype surrounding Parker, who lit it up at spring practices nearly every day, if you believe Dolphins beat writers.

Parker flashed A.J. Green-like upside in his first two seasons as a pro, but was plagued by inconsistency, and at times lost the trust of his coaches. Now he says he's eating better and is ready to take the next step in his career. If he has truly matured, he'll easily outperform his ADP.

Landry, meanwhile, is the same player he's always been. He'll catch a lot of passes, but touchdowns will be a rare occurrence and it's difficult to imagine him ever becoming a top-10 fantasy WR.

Parker is no lock to finally break out, but with his far cheaper cost and much higher upside, he's a smarter investment than Landry.

Draft Martavis Bryant, not Tyreek Hill

Hill ADP: WR24
Bryant ADP: WR26

The Chiefs gave their speedy sophomore a huge vote of confidence when they cut Jeremy Maclin, but there may be no player in all of fantasy football who carries more risk of busting.

Hill played only 416 offensive snaps as a rookie and topped 40 snaps in just one game. That total could double this season, but at the expense of his special teams involvement (Hill returned three kicks for touchdowns as a rookie).

It's certainly possible Hill will improve on his rookie pace of nine touchdowns on just 85 offensive touches, but it's equally likely he'll endure a sophomore slump now that he's forced to face No. 1 cornerbacks as the focal point of the Chiefs' uninspiring Alex Smith-led passing attack.

Like Hill, Bryant is an athletic freak who fell in the NFL draft due to off-field concerns and began his career with unsustainable touchdown production, scoring eight of them on 26 receptions as a rookie.

Unlike Hill, Bryant has the luxury of playing against soft coverage, with defenses focusing their attention on stopping Antonio Brown. Returning from a year-long suspension this spring, he looked so good at spring practices that Ben Roethlisberger called him "a stud."

Invest in the player with the better quarterback, better surrounding cast, and luxury of attacking No. 2 cornerbacks.

TE

Draft Hunter Henry, not Kyle Rudolph

Henry ADP: TE10
Rudolph ADP: TE8

Rudolph rode a perfect storm - the complete breakdown of the Vikings' offensive line and rushing attack, plus Sam Bradford's inability to throw deep - to a TE3 finish in 2016. Stefon Diggs should be healthier this season, Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook will command touches, and the result should be that Rudolph falls well short of his 132 targets from 2016 - the most any tight end in the league saw.

Henry, conversely, is a player whose target total is sure to increase. He saw only 53 of them as a rookie, yet produced nearly identical fantasy stats as teammate Antonio Gates, who saw 93 targets. Those totals should flip this season, with the Chargers recognizing Henry is the future and giving him all he can handle. Henry scored eight touchdowns despite a limited workload last year. He's headed for double-digit scores as a sophomore.