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Why the Falcons shouldn't pay Devonta Freeman as an elite RB

Matthew Emmons / USA TODAY Sports

Devonta Freeman and the Atlanta Falcons sure do sound like they are about to come together on a big-time contract - but should they?

On Thursday, Freeman said he feels like he's "about to be blessed" with a major contract after he and his agent have been calling for the fourth-year pro to be paid as an "elite" running back throughout the offseason.

While opinions may vary on what an elite running back's salary looks like, Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff recently agreed that he feels "confident" a deal will soon get done, but with two solid seasons under his belt, there are reasons to believe paying Freeman won't be worth the cost.

RB market

At the moment, some of the league's highest-paid running backs are giving Freeman an easy argument to earn more than he is worth.

Of the league's top five largest contract values among running backs, Freeman can make a valid argument that he is a better player than all but one - LeSean McCoy - meaning he will be able to possibly sign the NFL's second-best contract for a rusher for the time being.

RB Contract Value Length
LeSean McCoy $40M 5 years
Doug Martin $35.75M 5 years
Chris Ivory $32M 5 years
Leonard Fournette $27M 4 years
Lamar Miller $26M 4 years

Le'Veon Bell's next contract with the Steelers will likely make him the top-paid back, but for now, he's on the franchise tag.

With the way contracts are earned by comparison, it would not be difficult for Freeman to earn a deal exceeding Martin's despite the limitations he may have as a true elite weapon.

Is he that good?

Freeman's back-to-back seasons with at least 1,000 yards is an impressive feat, but he did not rank inside the top six league rushers in either season. As Freeman splits carries and the Falcons' offense is a pass-first system, he will not likely ever crack the NFL's top-three rushers list in any season.

McCoy proved he could earn his worth by notching four seasons with at least 1,000 yards, including a league-leading 1,607-yard performance in 2013. Freeman adds value in the passing game to go along with his decent rushing numbers, but he's always been used as a complementary piece to Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and the passing attack.

Tevin Coleman may have poked a hole in Freeman's argument to be the Falcons' top runner as he has posted similar rushing and receiving averages on less touches in 2016. As a rookie, Coleman filled in beautifully in the one game Freeman missed in the 2015 season, rushing for 110 yards against the Vikings in Week 12.

Even as a fantasy contributor, Freeman's value isn't considered elite as he currently sits seventh among running backs in theScore's rankings.

Expendable asset

As a general rule of thumb (and confirmed by the chart above), paying running backs big money isn't a great idea. Good running backs can be found in any draft year and they cost much less than the one you can find in free agency.

If the Falcons had taken a running back in this year's class, they would have had plenty of leverage over Freeman to negotiate a better deal. When the Falcons took depth linebacker Duke Riley in the third round, Kareem Hunt, D'Onta Foreman, Jame Conner, Samaje Perine, and Joe Williams were all still available. Pairing any of those backs with Coleman would be a formidable duo for the Falcons' offense.

The offense can survive without Freeman, but it can't survive without defending MVP Ryan, who is due for a new deal in this offseason or the next. Left tackle Jake Matthews, cornerback Jalen Collins, and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett will also require big-money contracts in the coming seasons, and all of them are more difficult to replace than Freeman. If a salary in the range of $8 million per season jeopardizes the re-signing of any of Atlanta's cornerstone pieces, signing Freeman will become a move the team regrets.

Freeman is certainly a good fit for the Falcons and has found success in their system, but he is not a must-have player and he shouldn't be paid as one.

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)

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