Fantasy Fallout: Shields in a New Home Means More Homers
Here are the fantasy repercussions following the trade that will send SP James Shields from the San Diego Padres to the Chicago White Sox for SP Erik Johnson and minor league SS Fernando Tatis Jr.:
Season-Long Fantasy
A return to the American League means a significant drop in fantasy value for Shields. Sure, he may pick up victories more frequently playing for a better team, but as a whole, wins can be tough to predict. The move to the Windy City won't do him any favors.
Shields allowed a league-leading 33 home runs last season in 33 starts, and has already surrendered nine round-trippers in 11 starts this season. Here is how San Diego's Petco Park and Chicago's US Cellular Field compare when it comes to allowing home runs, according to ESPN Park Factors (A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter; below 1.000 favors the pitcher):
| YEAR | Petco | US Cellular |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.917 (18th) | 1.042 (11th) |
| 2015 | 1.085 (10th) | 1.113 (8th) |
| 2014 | 0.808 (24th) | 1.049 (13th) |
| 2013 | 0.936 (17th) | 1.185 (7th) |
| 2012 | 0.626 (28th) | 1.349 (4th) |
Though slight modifications have been made over the past couple of seasons to make Petco more hitter-friendly, US Cellular is clearly still the more superior stadium when it comes to balls leaving the yard.
While Shields does boast an era of 3.00 in 11 career starts in the south side of Chicago, the home run issues of the last couple of years will make him a tough player to own outright for the rest of the season.
At age 34, Shields' best years are behind him. The sheer volume of his innings and strikeouts are still valuable but slippage has to be expected at some point. What you see is what you get; there's very little upside with Shields today, even despite his move.
Unless he shows fundamental changes in his approach with his new team, his value is restricted to matchup-dependent streaming options and two-start weeks. Otherwise, expect Shields to finish with his familiar season stat-line: around 200 innings, close to a strikeout per inning and an ERA around 4.00 -- and trending in the wrong direction.
Shields' owners should attempt to use the natural hype that comes with a fresh start by selling the workhorse on the trade market. His value might never be higher this season and it's possible that he'll play himself into must-drop status over the next month.
Daily Fantasy
Approach Shields in daily fantasy the same way you'd use him as a streaming option: look for weak matchups that play to his strengths and situations that minimize his weaknesses.
Among teams in the AL, the Angels and Royals have two of the three lowest fly ball rates -- 31.5 percent and 33.1 percent, respectively. It's no surprise that those two teams also have the lowest home run totals in the AL, with the Angels hitting 48 and the Royals hitting 47.
Part of the reason for the reduced long balls for Los Angeles and Kansas City has to do with their home parks. From 2013 to 2015, both Angel Stadium and Kauffman Stadium ranked in the bottom-10 in terms of home run park factor.
Other than simply looking to play Shields against generally poor offenses, using him as a high-end SP2 in two-pitcher leagues or as a flier in one-pitcher tournament formats could pay dividends when he is on the road facing the Angels or Royals, teams that aren't as likely to take advantage of Shields' meatballs.
Generally speaking, however, avoid him if you can. He wasn't pitching well to begin with and now he'll have the worst hitter in the opposing lineup (the pitcher) swapped out for the designated hitter. In any case, DFSers will want to see a couple of Shields' starts with the White Sox before investing heavily.