CFB Week 6 picks: Florida showdown highlights quiet card
The haters are furious looking at my 6-1 record during the most highly anticipated and electric college football weekend of the year. I told you a winning week was on the horizon. If you're here to fade me, well, sorry. Now, let's build on the momentum despite a relatively mundane Saturday slate, which is only fair after the Week 5 frenzy.
If you have apple-picking duties to attend to this fall, this is probably the week to appease your significant other. We have six bets. Let's dive in.
π Check out all college football Week 6 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
π Pick: Alabama -10.5
Alabama's season-opening loss to Florida State looked acceptable after the Seminoles emerged as a top-10 team. Then, Florida State lost to unranked Virginia on Friday. But the Crimson Tide's best win of the season came Saturday, when they defeated Georgia on the road. Does this mean they're back in the championship conversation? It's too early to tell. Remember, they beat the Bulldogs last year as well and still suffered three losses.
Alabama enters a familiar spot this week, having lost to Vanderbilt last season in the ultimate letdown following the Georgia win. Presumably, the Tide learned from that experience and won't let the emotions of a big win impact their performance at home Saturday.
Ty Simpson has made remarkable strides this season and emerged as a reliable signal-caller. He's thrown 11 touchdowns without an interception. While Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia can win games with his dual-threat ability, the Commodores haven't faced much legitimate competition. Their lone SEC matchup was a win against South Carolina, but LaNorris Sellers left the game early.
Game time: 7:30 p.m.
π Pick: Texas -6.5
Two of the most disappointing quarterbacks in college football will meet in Gainesville, with Arch Manning and DJ Lagway trying to raise their tanking stocks. All of Texas' goals are still in play. While Manning has struggled with accuracy and decision-making against weaker opponents, the Longhorns have fared well since their loss to Ohio State, thanks to one of the best defenses in the country.
Florida, meanwhile, is 1-3, and it's only a matter of time until head coach Billy Napier is fired. Lagway will be in a tailspin against Texas' defense, which held the Buckeyes to just 14 points at home. The Gators could quit if they go down early. Hopefully the Longhorns' bye week helped Manning focus and he returns refreshed. But even if he doesn't, the defense is good enough to earn this cover.
Game time: 7:30 p.m.
π Pick: Mississippi State +14.5
Mississippi State won just two games last season. It's already doubled its previous win total this campaign, with the Bulldogs' most noteworthy victory coming against Arizona State. But they're fresh off their most impressive showing yet - a narrow loss to Tennessee in overtime.
Mississippi State completely revamped its roster in the offseason and built a formidable team through the transfer portal, relying on a solid defense and a lethal rushing attack. The Bulldogs can compete with anyone in the SEC, making this line feel too high.
Let's call it how it is: Texas A&M is vastly overrated. The Aggies' 4-0 record and SEC standing have led them to a No. 6 ranking, but they're not one of the six best teams in the country. Marcel Reed struggled against Auburn's defense, only generating 16 points at home. He'll have a difficult time moving the ball against Mississippi State's 27th-best passing defense.
Game time: 7:30 p.m.
π Pick: Florida State +4.5
The game of the weekend is in Tallahassee between Florida football royalty. Before Florida State's loss to Virginia, this was set to be a matchup between two undefeated, top-10 teams. But it still has similar juice, as both sides contend for the ACC title. Florida State has an impressive win over Alabama, and Miami has one over Notre Dame.
While Carson Beck has been steady, the story of Miami's season is its daunting defense, especially after how fragile the unit was last year. Its defensive line attacks quarterbacks, but the Seminoles have proven they can battle in the trenches against the best fronts. The Hurricanes haven't played a road game yet. Will their offense be rattled in its first hostile environment of the year? It's certainly possible based on what we saw from Beck at Georgia.
Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos poses a unique challenge for Miami's defense as a capable passer but an even better runner. Give me the home underdog.
π Check out all college football Week 6 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Game time: 3:30 p.m.
π Pick: Maryland +6.5
This is a flawed line from oddsmakers. Maryland is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Terps rely on youth, so they weren't highly touted entering the season. I picked them as double-digit underdogs against Wisconsin last week, and they won outright.
Maryland quarterback Malik Washington might be a freshman, but he doesn't carry himself like one. The Terps also have a stable defense led by underclassmen. Washington, meanwhile, hasn't defeated a power conference opponent this year. Maryland is coming off a bye, playing at home, and may have the more talented roster. There's no reason it should be a significant underdog.
Game time: 3:30 p.m.
π Pick: Syracuse +17.5
Let's continue to take advantage of the market overreacting to a Syracuse team that it can't rate properly. The Orange claimed a huge win over Clemson two weeks ago, setting up their meeting with Duke to be a potential letdown spot. The Blue Devils were only a 5.5-point favorite; we told you to take them, and they won 38-3.
That makes this a bounce-back opportunity for Syracuse. The Orange aren't as good as they looked against Clemson but aren't as bad as what they exhibited versus Duke. SMU's two wins were over schools most fans have never heard of. The Mustangs are undoubtedly the more talented team in this matchup, but they haven't shown enough to be a 17.5-point favorite over anyone.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
ON: Please play responsibly. 19+. ON only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call ConnexOntario 24/7 at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca.