CFB Week 3 picks: Back Georgia as road favorite at Tennessee

Clemson survived a scare against Troy and South Florida upset Florida in a mostly mundane Week 2. Conference showdowns and ranked matchups flood the Week 3 slate, which sets up to be a crucial weekend in college football. Let's dive into the big games and our favorite plays.

🏈Check out all college football Week 3 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET

🏈 Pick: Georgia -3.5

Georgia's defense has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per game through two contests, and the unit's dominance has become synonymous with Kirby Smart's teams. Tennessee's averaging the second-most yards per game this season. So, who has the edge?

While Tennessee's pass-heavy attack was prolific against Syracuse and East Tennessee, Georgia is a different beast. Vols quarterback Joey Aguilar is unproven on the SEC stage. As an Appalachian State transfer, he hasn't experienced many ranked matchups against daunting defenses. Tennessee's ability to block Georgia's front and allow Aguilar enough time to process will be the determining factor. I'm rolling with the road favorite.

Game time: 4:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: South Florida +17.5

South Florida's 2-0 start with wins over Boise State and Florida is no fluke. The Bulls could make a run at the College Football Playoff as a Group of 5 squad. A road game against Miami is USF's last chance to prove its worth against a power conference opponent, and no team is playing with more confidence.

The Bulls allowed just 11.5 points per game against two ranked programs. A Carson Beck-led offense presents a different challenge, but USF has the personnel to slow down Miami and keep the game low-scoring. Plus, Byrum Brown is an experienced dual-threat quarterback capable of beating defenses in the air and on the ground. Miami is laying too many points against the team with the most impressive resume in the country.

Game time: 7:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Notre Dame -6.5

Notre Dame lost its opener to Miami by three points on the road. While Miami's experience led it to a win, Notre Dame freshman quarterback CJ Carr showed why the Fighting Irish view him as the future. He threw for over 220 yards and two touchdowns but didn't showcase his ability as a runner.

The Fighting Irish had a bye last week, meaning they benefited from extra rest and more time to prepare for Texas A&M, which played Utah State. Texas A&M isn't nearly as talented as Miami despite its high ranking. The Aggies played two weak opponents to open the season, while Notre Dame is already battle-tested. I'll take the more talented team coming off a bye with a promising freshman quarterback making his first home start.

Game time: 7:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Florida +7.5

How long will Florida extend the Billy Napier experiment? He's been on a perpetual hot seat but somehow has a longer leash than he should. Last week's upset loss to USF could be costly, especially as Florida faces five ranked opponents in its next six games. That starts with an LSU team that has the makings of a national title contender.

LSU boasts the top transfer class in the country and has Heisman favorite Garrett Nussmeier under center, but Florida can still keep this game within a touchdown. The Gators' offense settled for field goals way too often last week. If DJ Lagway can convert favorable field position into touchdowns instead, they can compete. Florida's other path here is preventing LSU's big plays. The Tigers often rely too much on Nussmeier's arm due to their nonexistent run game. Florida's defense has the talent to pressure Nussmeier and limit explosive plays, and the Gators should be extra motivated following an upset loss.

🏈 Check out all college football Week 3 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Game time: 7:45 p.m.

🏈 Pick: South Carolina -4.5

Vanderbilt's off to another solid start, scoring 44 and 45 points in its opening two games (the latter against Virginia Tech). However, South Carolina is a playoff contender led by Heisman candidate and dynamic quarterback LaNorris Sellers, whom Vanderbilt's defense is not equipped to contain.

Entering the season, there were questions about South Carolina's defense after it lost key pass-rushers to the NFL. The Gamecocks still look similarly dominant up front, however, having allowed Virginia Tech to score just 11 points in the opener on a neutral field. I'll take South Carolina to win by at least a touchdown at home in each team's SEC opener.

Game time: 3:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Oregon State +23.5

Quarterback Behren Morton is off to a sizzling start in his fifth season at Texas Tech. He's thrown for 459 yards and seven touchdowns. The Red Raiders are averaging 64.5 points per game, the nation's second-highest mark. However, let's pump the brakes: Those two wins were against Kent State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

Oregon State has given us very little reason to trust it after losses to California and Fresno State. However, the offense made strides from Week 1 to Week 2 as quarterback Maalik Murphy threw a career-high 371 yards. Texas Tech's attempted to upgrade what was one of the country's worst defenses last season, but it's still unproven. The Beavers have enough offensive firepower to keep this within three touchdowns.

Game time: 8 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Duke +1.5

Duke opened as a 2.5-point underdog, moved to a 1.5-point favorite, and is now an underdog again. Quarterback Darian Mensah played at Tulane last year before transferring to Duke this spring. This is a revenge spot for him as he returns to his old stomping grounds.

The Blue Devils played poorly and committed five turnovers against Illinois last week, but they remained competitive despite the final tally. Duke's defense has been impressive, particularly against the run, and should slow down Tulane, which has faced weak competition through two games. Regardless of the quarterback revenge factor, Duke is the more talented and better-coached team.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.

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