3 matchups that'll decide colossal Michigan-Ohio State game

It's simply known as "The Game" because it doesn't require any further explanation.

Saturday marks the 119th meeting in the series between Michigan and Ohio State and also doubles as one of the biggest in the history of the rivalry that started in 1897.

A Big Ten East title, a berth in the conference title game, and a virtual guarantee to qualify for the College Football Playoff are all at stake, along with the usual bragging rights. Add in the drama of the Michigan sign-stealing scandal and Jim Harbaugh's suspension, and Saturday's matchup has the chance to be an all-time contest.

Here are three vital matchups that should go a long way to deciding the winner between the two top-three teams.

McCarthy vs. Ohio State defense

Michigan may have attempted only one pass in the second half versus Penn State because it identified that it could run over the Nittany Lions, but after last week against Maryland, it's fair to question the passing attack and J.J. McCarthy. The quarterback looked prolific to begin the season and even rose to the level of Heisman favorite after Week 8, but his numbers have dropped off a cliff since Harbaugh started serving his suspension.

McCarthy completed just 12-of-23 passes for 141 yards with an interception in the seven-point win over the Terps. Some of that can likely be attributed to missing leading receiver Roman Wilson, but McCarthy clearly isn't the same player without Harbaugh on the sidelines. That didn't matter during Harbaugh's first three-game ban this year - yes, remember, he's been suspended two separate times this year - but East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green are far from the Buckeyes' defense. McCarthy and the offensive unit's numbers in the previous six Big Ten games with Harbaugh compared to the last two without him show a staggering decline.

Michigan's schedule has also been incredibly favorable to McCarthy up until this point of the season. The Wolverines have matched up with six of the seven worst Big Ten pass defenses while facing just two of the top seven. That changes on Saturday, as Ohio State is the top pass defense in the conference and holds opponents to under 150 yards through the air per game.

Henderson vs. Michigan run defense

Michigan won the last two rivalry games with Ohio State despite the Buckeyes having future first-round QB C.J. Stroud. You can insert your own sign-stealing joke here, but if he wasn't able to get the win, it's tough to imagine Ohio State doing it this year because of Kyle McCord. The first-year starter's numbers have improved over the season, but he's struggled away from Columbus and faces the toughest atmosphere of his career this weekend.

• Home: 288 YPG, 70.2% completion, 10.3 YPA, 14 TDs, 0 INTs, 184.2 RTG
• Away: 234 YPG, 62% completion, 7.8 YPA, 8 TDs, 4 INTs, 139.8 RTG

So why does Ohio State still have a chance to win on Saturday? The re-emergence of star running back TreVeyon Henderson. The junior has battled injuries his entire career but has been an electric performer when healthy for the Buckeyes. He was crucial in Ohio State's road win at Notre Dame earlier this year before an injury sidelined him until late October. Since returning, he's averaged 125 yards on the ground over the four-game stretch on a gaudy 6.74 yards per carry.

Michigan's defensive line is once again one of the best in the conference, sitting third in rush defense on the season, so Henderson's production won't come easy on Saturday. If he can move the ball and keep the offense on the field, Ohio State could very well emerge with the victory. If he can't, the game will be placed on McCord's shoulders. That's not a scenario that'll have Ohio State fans brimming with confidence.

Moore vs. Day

Ryan Day's conference record as Ohio State's head coach is an outrageous 38-2 over five seasons. The only issue: Those two losses have been the last two rivalry games against the Wolverines. The manner in which Michigan took both of those games has been damning, with the Wolverines holding an astonishing 56-17 advantage in the second half of the two contests. That immediately calls into question Day's ability to make in-game adjustments against opponents that feature a similar level of talent. Now, he faces an interim head coach in Sherrone Moore, a matchup he simply can't lose if Ohio State is going to win its first East division title since 2020.

It's tough to grade Moore through the last two games as interim head coach, though it's certainly clear the man can rise to the occasion for some compelling television. He deserves credit for realizing early that Michigan couldn't block Penn State's pass rush and opted to use seven offensive linemen in a run-only attack. However, the Wolverines needed turnovers to take a lead on Maryland and hold on - a credit to their defense but also an approach that might be unsustainable. How will Moore adjust if the Wolverines fall behind early and can't rely on the rushing attack to get back into it?

Moore will grab instant legend status should he take Michigan to a third straight win over Ohio State. While the last two years of blowout Wolverines wins are now clouded in the sign-stealing scandal, Moore can solidify those results with a repeat performance on Saturday at the Big House. As for Day, if he loses a third straight game to the Wolverines, his agent might want to be active on the phone lines for other openings despite his incredible overall record with the Buckeyes.