ACC title game preview: Fade Notre Dame's offense vs. Clemson

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It's Round 2 between Clemson and Notre Dame as the two teams meet Saturday in the ACC title game.

If you're planning to get some coin down on this weekend's tilt, here's everything you need to know.

Odds

Line: Clemson -10.5
Total: 61.5

It's been all Clemson and over money so far. The Tigers opened -7.5 with a total of 61, but the market pounced on the favorite, pushing Dabo Swinney's club to double digits.

The line and total closed Clemson -5 and 51, respectively, when these programs last met on Nov. 7. Quarterback and consensus No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence was unavailable for that contest due to COVID-19, and Notre Dame picked up the biggest win of the year in a 47-40 shootout.

The public is expecting another high-scoring affair in the title game. Will it come to fruition?

Tale of the tape

This is usually the time Clemson heats up. Lawrence is healthy, the defense is rounding into form, and Swinney's on a 13-3 run against the spread in December games. The Tigers have covered back-to-back outings after dropping three straight ATS, outscoring Pitt and Virginia Tech by a combined 97-27.

SP+ ranks Clemson as the second-best team in the country, behind only Alabama. The Fighting Irish are No. 6 in that department, and head coach Brian Kelly is certainly locked in, covering six straight games against teams with winning records.

Notre Dame's offense is legit. The unit has scored at least 45 points in four of the last six games, and it hung 47 on a defense that SP+ considers the best in the country in early November.

The Fighting Irish have gone over the total in three of the last four entering this title game, while the Tigers have cashed five of their last six.

Important betting trends

• Clemson is 17-5 ATS the last 22 neutral-site games
• Clemson is 21-8 ATS the last 29 conference matchups
• Clemson is 5-1 to the over the last six after a win
• Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS the last six neutral-site games
• Notre Dame is 25-9 to the under the last 34 after scoring 40 points or more

Best bets - Under 61.5, Notre Dame team total under 24.5

Notre Dame threw the kitchen sink at Clemson in the first meeting; it had no other choice. With Lawrence out, a perfect record on the line, and a shot at the College Football Playoff potentially hanging in the balance, the Fighting Irish capitalized on the situation and registered a mind-bending 518 yards of total offense. For context, the Tigers have never allowed any of the Alabama teams they've met in the playoffs to top 500 yards.

When these squads square off Saturday, it's Clemson - not Notre Dame - facing a do-or-die situation. The Tigers are arguably the most well-rounded team in the nation, but they're aware of the consequences of a second loss on their ledger.

The Fighting Irish, on the other hand, are still sitting pretty after Florida's loss to LSU. A defeat in the ACC title game against a powerhouse like Clemson could be perceived as a "good" loss in the eyes of the selection committee, so all Notre Dame realistically needs to do to earn a berth is put forth a decent effort.

We'll likely see a fairly conservative game plan from the Fighting Irish, who should have their hands full against Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables.

Take the under, as well as Notre Dame's team total under.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.