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CFB Week 11 upset alert: Now's the time to buy Louisville

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West Virginia couldn't pull off the upset in Week 10, but the Mountaineers covered for us as 5.5-point 'dogs against Texas.

Here's which program we're putting on upset alert this Saturday.

Week 11 upset alert: Virginia (-3.5 vs. Louisville)

Remember when Louisville was a sleeper to challenge Clemson in the ACC? Those were the hot takes during the spring and summer.

Fast forward to this weekend and the Cardinals are 2-5. They didn't win a conference game until Halloween. ACC foes such as Boston College, Wake Forest, NC State, and Virginia all have better winning percentages.

Betting a 2-5 team at only +3.5 may be cringeworthy, but Week 11 at Virginia is a pretty ideal buy-low spot on Louisville, despite its shortcomings this season.

There's actually a lot to like about the Cardinals, if you can believe it. They've out-gained their opponents by roughly 40 yards per game this season. They just can't buy a win, largely due to their inability to take care of the ball - their minus-1.6 turnover margin per game is tied for fifth-worst in the country for teams with multiple games played.

If you haven't caught a glimpse of the offense yet, do it. OSP+ ranks Louisville's unit No. 13 in the country, which is better than the likes of Penn State, USC, Texas A&M, SMU, and Texas. Quarterback Malik Cunningham has plenty of weapons who can stretch the field, so expect splash plays aplenty against a Virginia defense allowing a whopping 312.2 yards per game through the air.

Louisville's defense has been non-existent at times, but this is a good matchup. You can run on the Cardinals, but Virginia prefers to pass - the Cavs dial-up pass plays on roughly 54% of their offensive snaps, which ranks No. 24 in the country.

The market's perception of these two teams has changed drastically since the start of the season. The public's quit on Louisville, which is at or near the bottom of its market range. That makes the Cardinals a solid bet here, especially against a team getting outscored by 6.1 points per game.

I'm not the only one who thinks the Cardinals have the edge: The advanced metric SP+ has Louisville ranked 10 spots ahead of Virginia. After factoring in travel, home field, and everything else, how did the market settle on Virginia -3.5? It's a real head-scratcher.

This is a prime spot to play the underdog. Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield's a great bounce-back bet, going 5-1-1 against the spread the last seven following an outright loss and 5-0-1 ATS the last six after failing to cover.

Grab the points, and take a shot with Louisville on the moneyline while you're at it.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

CFB Week 11 upset alert: Now's the time to buy Louisville
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