7 betting trends to trust in Week 11
Iowa State playing great defense on the road? Check.
Missouri putting up points away from home? Yep!
Those were just a few angles we dug into last week. Again, trends tell us more about what's already happened than what will come next. Still, they could line up with an edge you already have.
With that in mind, here are some angles to consider with Week 11 on deck:
Alabama is 9-0 against the first-half spread this season
Situation: Alabama -24 vs. Mississippi State
Last week, LSU kept Alabama out of the end zone for the first time all season. That was about all the Tigers could manage, as the Tide got out to a 16-0 lead after two quarters and improved their first-half spread mark to 9-0 on the season.
Why it will hit again: If LSU can't stop Alabama's offense, who can? Mississippi State's No. 3 scoring defense could pose a roadblock, but that's what most assumed about the Tigers.
Central Michigan is on a 9-0 run to the first-half under
Situation: Central Michigan -7 vs. Bowling Green; O/U 51.5
Thanks to an offense that's allergic to scoring and a top-three passing defense, the Chippewas have been a treasure trove for under players. Central Michigan games have averaged just 17 points in the first half during the nine-game streak, which started in Week 2 against Kansas.
Why it will hit again: As bad as Bowling Green is defensively, Central Michigan's offense might be even worse. The Chippewas haven't scored more than 24 points in a game this season and are averaging 15.4 overall in 2018.
Penn State is 2-13 against the spread following a loss under head coach James Franklin
Situation: Penn State -8 vs. Wisconsin
Penn State would've been better served staying on the bus rather than coming out to face Michigan. The Nittany Lions were handed their worst loss of the season in a 42-7 rout at the hands of the Wolverines, putting Penn State in a spot that's been profitable to fade.
Why it will hit again: Wisconsin has only lost by double digits twice since the beginning of the 2015 season. After the Nittany Lions allowed Michigan to run for 259 yards last Saturday, they should see a lot of running back Jonathan Taylor, one of the nation's best.
UAB is 11-0-1 against the spread in its last 12 home games
Situation: UAB -12 vs. Southern Mississippi
The Blazers have ripped off eight consecutive wins, both straight up and against the spread, since dropping their Week 2 contest against Coastal Carolina. They picked up their biggest victory three weeks ago against North Texas at home, winning by eight as 1.5-point favorites.
Why it will hit again: UAB is steamrolling opponents even without starting quarterback A.J. Erdely. He missed last weekend against UTSA with a shoulder injury, leaving Tyler Johnston III to complete 10 passes for 249 yards and three scores in a 42-point win. Southern Miss has also struggled away from home this season, being outscored 74-37 in three games.
Michigan is 6-0 to the first-half over as a favorite of 30 or more under Jim Harbaugh
Situation: Michigan -39 at Rutgers; O/U 48.5
The total between Michigan and Rutgers is a tricky one. The Wolverines could cover it themselves, but there's the off-chance they storm out to a huge lead early and chew clock in the second half. That's where the first-half total might be a better look, as Harbaugh-coached teams are perfect to the over in six such situations since he took over in 2015, outscoring teams by an average of 33.1 to 2.3 (!).
Why it will hit again: Rutgers' defense has been gashed for big plays on the ground all season and allowed 6.9 yards per rush last week against Wisconsin. Michigan could realistically score every time the offense touches the ball.
Tulsa's opponents are on a 7-0 run to the team total under when the Golden Hurricane are on the road
Situation: Memphis -15.5 vs. Tulsa; O/U 65.5
If you can sit through a game in which you're rooting for a Memphis offense averaging 44.3 points per contest to falter, you're braver than most.
Why it will hit again: The Golden Hurricane's defense has been surprisingly above average, allowing just 27.1 points per game in 2018. Tulsa hasn't allowed more than 41 points in a single contest this season and has faced potent offenses in Houston, Texas, and South Florida.
Cal is on a 6-0 run to both the first-half under and full-game under in its last six road games
Situation: USC -5.5 vs. Cal; O/U 48.5
Justin Wilcox has paid dividends for Cal defensively. In Year 2 as the Golden Bears' head coach, his team ranks No. 20 in the country in total defense and No. 30 in scoring defense, two feats rare for a Pac-12 outfit.
Why it will hit again: Cal's offense, on the other hand, has had a tough time this season. The Golden Bears' 23.7 points per game ranks No. 107 in the nation, and, outside of a 49-7 win over lowly Oregon State in Week 8, they haven't scored more than 24 points against an FBS defense.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.