7 betting trends to trust in Week 10
Clemson going over the total and laying a ton of points on the road? Check.
Oklahoma scoring at will at home? Yep!
Those were just a few angles we dug into last week. Again, trends tell us more about what's already happened than what will come next. Still, they could line up with an edge you already have.
With that in mind, here are some angles to consider with Week 10 on deck:
Bowling Green's opponents are 7-0 to the team total over in 2018
Situation: Bowling Green -1; O/U 66.5
Congratulations to Bowling Green, which is 0.4 points away from giving up 50 per game this season. A Kent State offense averaging just 23 in 2018 doesn't appear likely to put the Falcons over the 50 mark, but then again, this is Bowling Green we're talking about.
Why it will hit again: Kent State should get plenty of opportunities. Tuesday's MACtion features two defenses ranked in the bottom three in yards per completion allowed, so if this is a track meet, the Golden Flashes get their chances to score.
Ranked Power 5 teams coming off a loss by at least 14 points are 69-108-2 ATS the following week
Situations: Wisconsin -29 vs. Rutgers; Oregon -8.5 vs. Arizona; Texas A&M +5 at Auburn; Florida -6 vs. Missouri
This trend has been profitable all season. Ranked teams in these situations might even become better fade material as the season progresses, considering they're falling out of a College Football Playoff berth and the conference championship picture with motivation potentially wavering.
Week 10 offers four more teams ripe for potential letdowns, three of which are giving points.
Pitt is on an 8-1 run to the under when playing on the road
Situation: Virginia -7; O/U 49
Pitt's been a hot under team away from home, mainly due to offensive struggles. The Panthers have only scored more than 24 points once over that nine-game span, and now face a tough challenger in Virginia.
Why it will hit again: Virginia's been fantastic defensively this season, ranking No. 33 in the country by S&P+ defensive metrics. Pitt's also relied on its defense throughout the campaign, though a 54-45 win over Duke in Week 9 was heavily skewed due to rainy conditions.
South Carolina's opponents are 10-1 to the team total under when the Gamecocks are on the road
Situation: South Carolina PK at Ole Miss; O/U 66.5
The Gamecocks have played out of their mind defensively away from home over the last two-plus seasons under Will Muschamp, holding opponents to just 21.6 points over the 11-game sample. Take out the 56 allowed to Clemson last season and the number sits at 18.2.
Why it will hit again: Ole Miss has lost wide receiver D.K. Metcalf for the season, giving the Gamecocks one less wideout to worry about. It might be a bend-but-don't-break approach for South Carolina against an offense averaging 7.1 yards per play, but there are still 30-plus points to work with.
Iowa State's opponents are 11-2 to the team total under in Cyclones' last 13 road games
Situation: Iowa State -14 at Kansas; O/U 48
Chalk this one up as another highlight in the resume of head coach Matt Campbell, who has pulled Iowa State out of the Big 12's basement.
Why it will hit again: The Cyclones boast one of the most underrated defenses in the country, ranking No. 31 in S&P+ right behind Florida State, Florida, and Texas A&M. Kansas' offense, on the other hand, is No. 114 in the nation in S&P+ offense.
Missouri's team total over is 8-1 in the Tigers' last nine road games
Situation: Missouri +6 at Florida; O/U 58
Missouri is averaging more than five touchdowns over the nine-game sample, but recently saw the trend break after mustering just 10 points at Alabama.
Why it will hit again: Missouri's offense is authored by one of the country's best quarterbacks in Drew Lock, who could potentially get his No. 1 wide receiver, Emanuel Hall, back on the field Saturday. Something in the range of 26-27 points isn't all that much for a Mizzou offense averaging 35.5 per game this season.
Utah State is 7-1 to the team total over this season
Situation: Utah State -18 at Hawaii; O/U OFF
Utah State's offense might be the best-kept secret in the country. The Aggies are No. 3 in scoring this season, posting 31 points or more in seven of their eight games.
Why it will hit again: Hawaii has always played better on the island, but the defense is tough to trust. It's a unit that ranks No. 114 in the country in yards per play (6.5) and No. 106 in points allowed (34.6). The Rainbow Warriors may be in trouble against a Utah State team closing in on 50 points per game in 2018.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.