Top 10 betting plays for Week 7 of the college football season

You'll see the number 52.4 thrown around a lot in betting circles. That's the percentage you need to hit in sports betting to break even, assuming the vig is -110 on everything played.

So far, we're at 32-27-1 on the season in college football picks, which comes out to 54.2 percent. Back up the Brinks truck, kids.

I'm just playing. But seriously, let's do that thing where we win more plays than we lose this week. And as always, shop around to find the best numbers.

Top Plays

Tennessee at Auburn

Wager: Over 46.5

After taking the over on Illinois-Rutgers last weekend, I apparently feel the need to release yet another total that, on paper, is pretty gross.

I'm not going to mince words here - Auburn's offense is the reason the team won't achieve anything meaningful this season. The unit's on pace to shatter career lows for head coach Gus Malzahn, all while the defense is statistically one of the best in the country.

There are collegiate offenses that can't do anything due to personnel, but Auburn doesn't fit that mold. The Tigers have simply struggled against good defenses, while making plenty of costly mistakes along the way.

Take last weekend for example. The Tigers didn't score a single touchdown in a 27-9 loss to Mississippi State, but they did get into Bulldogs territory on seven of 11 drives and stalled inside the 10-yard line twice. Quarterback Jarrett Stidham also overthrew a wide-open receiver on a play that would have gone for a touchdown. That's been the story of Auburn's season - gaining yards, but not finishing drives.

As for Tennessee, its offense isn't much to write home about, but even a couple scores should be enough.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tigers open up the playbook and try to compensate for their season-long offensive woes.

Duke at Georgia Tech

Wager: Duke +3

Georgia Tech is getting a little too much love here after beating up on two terrible defenses. The triple option is a masterpiece to watch when it's working, which it did against one of the worst units in the entire country (Bowling Green) and a team with depth problems at linebacker (Louisville).

I'm playing Duke, which gets more time to prepare following a bye week, and also beat Army - a team that runs an offense similar to Georgia Tech's - by 20 earlier in the season.

Oklahoma State at Kansas State

Wager: Oklahoma State -7

This could very well be the Hangover Game - between an Oklahoma State team coming off a home loss to Iowa State and a Kansas State club that emptied the tank against Baylor, only to lose on a last-second field goal.

The Cowboys are in a similar spot to what they experienced a couple weeks ago - going on the road to face a team from Kansas after losing at home to a conference opponent. And Oklahoma State beat the Jayhawks by 20 in Week 5, showing no signs of a letdown after losing to Texas Tech the week prior. I don't think the gap between Kansas and Kansas State is all that wide this season, either, so I'll fire on the Pokes at this number.

Washington at Oregon

Wager: Washington -3

Taking Oregon feels like a square's version of a sharp play here.

The Ducks have a couple of nice edges in their favor, including home-field advantage and coming off a bye week. Oregon also has some speed on the outside that will challenge Washington's back seven, and its own front seven can get after quarterback Jake Browning.

However, the Huskies are still fighting for a College Football Playoff bid and I give them the edge in coaching, defense, and overall talent.

I don't want to be that guy, but Stanford was also a short favorite at Oregon a few weeks ago. I have the Huskies paces ahead of the Cardinal in power ratings, meaning getting Washington at this price is a full go.

Colorado at USC

Wager: Over 57

USC quarterback JT Daniels continues to progress, and has proven to be more comfortable playing at home. The Trojans might not have the offensive numbers we're accustomed to seeing, but it feels like this unit will only get better as Daniels gets acclimated to the collegiate speed.

Colorado has put up points despite facing questionable competition so far this season. Still, there's no denying that the two offenses are capable of scoring with the personnel on both sides. This was a matchup I circled before the totals came out, and I would have fired on anything below 60.

Extra Points

Rutgers at Maryland

Wager: Under 52.5

I don't want to boast, but am I the best Rutgers handicapper in the entire solar system? This is a serious question. If I don't wind up with a winning record in college football this season, my consolation prize will be hitting on 100 percent on Scarlet Knights games.

Truth be told, Rutgers isn't too difficult to figure out. The Scarlet Knights are only going to score points against defenses that will allow them to, and I don't consider Maryland one of those teams.

The Terps quietly boast a top-25 defense in terms of yards per play allowed (4.8) and that's even after giving up 6.8 to Michigan last weekend. Meanwhile, I watched four quarters of Rutgers football last weekend against Illinois, and this offense is as bad as advertised.

Central Florida at Memphis

Wager: Central Florida -4.5

This Central Florida team continues to impress me. I'm a firm believer that if you take out the name of the program and weigh UCF strictly on talent, it would be seriously considered for a spot in the playoff. The Knights are that good.

Here UCF gets a matchup against Memphis, which nearly gave the Knights their only loss of 2017 in the AAC title game. The market will look at that game and notice that Memphis was able to hold its own - something most teams couldn't do against UCF. But the biggest - and the deciding - factor for me is how the two teams stack up this season, and I think the talent gap is even bigger this time.

I recommend taking Central Florida's speed on offense and its talent on defense against a Memphis team that's yet to play anyone. There won't be a revenge game for the Tigers on Saturday.

Baylor at Texas

Wager: Under 60.5

Baylor is still scoring points, though not at the torrid rate we saw a couple years ago. This current Bears offense is a bit ... different. The unit wants to run the ball and it's good at extending drives. While explosive plays are somewhat random in college football, there haven't been too many quick-strike scores, something we grew accustomed to seeing during the Art Briles days.

Texas, in my opinion, is still pretty vanilla. The team is right in the middle of the pack in terms of yards per play and still has a better unit on the defensive side. In general, it's tough to invest in a Big 12 under, but I feel comfortable playing this one.

Iowa at Indiana

Recommended Pick: Under 53

I don't want to look too much into last week's Iowa-Minnesota shootout, which was aided by explosive plays and short fields due to turnovers. If you've been following along, you're familiar with what I think about Indiana's offense and how it lacks big plays. Due to the offensive styles of both teams in this matchup, I don't think a high-scoring game is in the cards.

Ole Miss at Arkansas

Wager: Under 68

Obviously, this play would have been even better at the opener of 72, but it's still in the range where I recommend the under. There's rain in the forecast in Arkansas, which will likely handcuff Ole Miss' passing attack to some extent, given how frequently the Rebels stretch the field with their arsenal of NFL-ready receivers. Arkansas has also been somewhat respectable defensively this season, currently ranked No. 51 in S&P+ ratings.

Top plays: 17-11-1

Overall record: 32-27-1

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.