7 betting trends to trust in Week 7
Old Dominion giving up points on the road? Check.
Eastern Michigan as a road underdog? Check.
Those were just a few angles we dug into last week. Again, trends tell us more about what's already happened than what will come next. Still, they could also line up with an edge you already have.
With that in mind, here are some angles to consider with Week 7 on deck:
Ranked Power 5 teams coming off a loss by at least 14 points are 67-104-2 ATS the following week
Situations: Virginia Tech -5.5 at North Carolina; Auburn -15.5 vs. Tennessee
In Week 6, it was Stanford, Cal, and BYU in this position, after all three then-ranked teams lost by 14-plus points the previous week. The trend added three more to the loss column as the Cardinal, Golden Bears, and Cougars all lost against the spread (and outright!).
This week, it'll be Virginia Tech and Auburn to keep tabs on after they lost by 22 to Notre Dame and by 14 to Mississippi State, respectively.
Eastern Michigan's on a 13-3 run against the spread after a loss
Situation: Eastern Michigan +1.5 vs. Toledo
I've touched on Miami of Ohio's string of bad luck in one-score games. But the Redhawks might not even be the unluckiest team in the country, let alone in their own conference. I present to you Chris Creighton's Eastern Michigan Eagles, who are 0-4 in their last four games with the four losses coming by a combined 16 points, and two of those ending in overtime.
The latest L could set up Eastern Michigan for a potential bounce-back performance against a tough Toledo squad.
Northwestern has gone under in 11 of its last 13 home games against Big Ten opponents
Situation: Nebraska at Northwestern -5.5; O/U 59
Northwestern has been a great "under" team at home as of late, compiling a 27-9-2 clip over the last five-plus seasons. Additionally, the Wildcats have been even better at going under at home in conference play.
This will be Northwestern's first total of the season above 51 points, and the highest for a Northwestern home game since October 2013. Sure, Nebraska hasn't been able to stop anyone, but Northwestern's also struggled to move the ball - the Wildcats average 4.6 yards per play, the fourth worst of any Power 5 team.
Bowling Green's opponents have gone over their team total six straight times
Situation: Western Michigan -14.5 at Bowling Green; O/U 72
How do I put this kindly? Bowling Green's defense is dreadful. And yes, that's actually being kind.
The Falcons are giving up an average of 48.5 points per game, which is only ahead of UConn in the national rankings. Team totals aren't set until later in the week, but Western Michigan's figures to be somewhere in the 42-to-43 range. Bowling Green has limited just one FBS team to fewer than 40 points (Miami of Ohio), but even the Redhawks hung 38 in a 10-point win.
The Broncos own the No. 38 scoring offense and have put up 74 combined points on the road their last two games.
Navy's on a 5-0 run against the spread as a home underdog
Situation: Temple -5.5 at Navy
I felt the need to include this because it rarely happens. Under Ken Niumatalolo, the Midshipmen have only been home underdogs 10 times since 2007. They're on a 5-0 run against the spread in this situation and have won three outright, including a 46-40 win over Houston as 15.5-point 'dogs.
UNLV is on an 8-1 run against the spread on the road, including 4-0 against the spread as a double-digit underdog
Situation: UNLV at Utah State -24
Head coach Tony Sanchez and UNLV have been better on the road than at home against the spread, going 4-8 ATS at Sam Boyd Stadium over the same nine-game road sample. The bigger the number, the better for the Runnin' Rebels, who've covered the last four as double-digit underdogs, including in Week 1 at USC.
Utah State, a trendy team this season, is coming off a convincing 25-point win over BYU as a short underdog on the road. S&P+ numbers have obviously shifted through six weeks of the season and Utah State has surged, but the metric had this one at just a 9.8-point margin in favor of the Aggies before the season.
Missouri's team total over is 8-0 in its last eight games on the road
Situation: Missouri at Alabama -28.5; O/U 74.5
Missouri is averaging a shade under 40 points per game in its last eight on the road. Hitting that number might be difficult against Alabama, but the Tigers should have plenty of opportunities Saturday against a quick-strike Crimson Tide offense that's putting on an offensive clinic this season.
Missouri's team total in Week 7 should open up around 24. The last time the Tigers failed to score more than that? Week 4 of last season.