Top 10 betting plays for Week 6 of the college football season

When it comes to treating the football season like a marathon, sometimes you have to think in baseball terms.

You don't need to hit a home run every week.

I'd love to replicate my 9-1 record from Week 4 every Saturday, but that isn't sustainable. Going 6-4 in Week 5 will get the job done just fine, even after factoring in the juice.

Singles and doubles work, especially over a season that stretches three months. All you have to do is avoid striking out.

I'm not in love with this week's card. So if you're tailing, be smart with your unit sizes and, as always, shop around for the best numbers.

Top Plays

Illinois at Rutgers

Wager: Over 49.5

This game looks gross on paper, but I assure you it has the potential to be fun (see: Kansas vs. Rutgers, Week 3). Illinois' one-dimensional offense that has had success on the ground might run amok on a Rutgers defense that's giving up the most chunk yardage against the run (20-plus yard plays) in the entire conference. On the other side of the ball, Illinois' defense has been statistically worse in the primary defensive categories. Saturday might be the last chance for the two teams to actually score points because a gauntlet of Big Ten opponents awaits on both schedules.

The Scarlet Knights lost 24-17 to Indiana last week while allowing 451 total yards to a Hoosiers offense I've berated all season. Also, Indiana's offense turned the ball over twice in opposing territory. So yes, Rutgers' defense is still a sore spot.

Instead of getting too wrapped up in the eyesore that is Illinois-Rutgers, hop on the bandwagon as we watch two teams with below-average offenses take advantage of the opposition's awful defense.

Clemson at Wake Forest

Wager: Over 61

Clemson didn't look good last weekend offensively against Syracuse when I needed the Tigers to do well on that side of the ball. I just needed points in bunches, and barely got halfway to the number.

I could use the excuse that starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence left midway through the game, but that didn't matter. Clemson's offense was out of sorts right from the kickoff. However, for the second straight week, the unit has an opportunity to go off.

I love this spot for the Tigers. This feels like a game when everyone will start to question if Clemson has what it takes to make the College Football Playoff, only for Lawrence to have his breakout against a poor Wake Forest defense that's given up 41 points to Boston College and 56 to Notre Dame this season.

Syracuse at Pittsburgh

Wager: Over 58

I've missed twice on overs in Syracuse games this season because I committed a cardinal sin: betting Syracuse overs against good defenses.

The Pitt Panthers don't fall into that category because, unlike Clemson or Florida State, they don't have a quality defense.

The Orange still have a dynamic offense that hasn't been given the national stage yet. Playing against the Seminoles and Tigers may have clouded our judgment as we assess what Syracuse can pull off offensively under head coach Dino Babers. He leans on quick-strike possessions that take up only a couple minutes.

Pitt's defense hasn't been able to stop an average offense all season long. The Panthers' scoring defense ranks 97th in the country (32 points allowed per game), and it's 107th in yards allowed per play (6.3). Syracuse's defense is just below that at six yards allowed, but the Orange have fielded a bend-but-don't-break unit allowing just 21.2 points per game, which ranks 44th.

The Orange's special teams effectiveness has helped greatly, and Syracuse has been able to flip fields in games when the offense has struggled.

Here's why that won't matter this week: I don't expect Syracuse to punt often on Saturday.

South Florida at UMass

Wager: UMass +16

South Florida's undefeated record might be a bit deceiving.

A pair of kickoff return touchdowns pushed the Bulls to a double-digit win over Georgia Tech. South Florida struggled to pull away from both Illinois and East Carolina, and their other win was against Elon.

UMass is 2-4 this season, and its defense has been horrendous. The offense, on the other hand, has been able to stay in games.

Take another look at UMass with a line that's roughly two scores too high.

Indiana at Ohio State

Wager: Ohio State -26

This matchup calls for a letdown spot, but I don't see that happening for Ohio State. Had the Buckeyes walked into Beaver Stadium and completely romped Penn State, then had to get up for an early game against unranked Indiana, I could see it.

But although the Buckeyes might start slower, I don't think we'll see a true letdown performance. Then again, they've averaged nearly 40 points during the first half in three home games thus far in 2018.

I've been fading the Hoosiers all season, and they don't match up well against Ohio State. Explosive plays will beat the Buckeyes' defense, and Indiana doesn't have the offensive style to create those chunk gains.

Extra Points

Northwestern at Michigan State

Recommended Pick: Michigan State -10

Northwestern has been unlucky to start 1-3. The Wildcats outscored Akron and Duke - two losses - and held a 17-point lead over Michigan before coughing up 20 unanswered points.

Now they might not have much left in the tank after what's transpired over the last three weeks. The Wildcats have spiralled after a good start with an opening-week win at Purdue, and now they have to play on the road for the first time in more than five weeks.

I'm still a bit gun shy on Michigan State. Not only have the Spartans failed to pull away from teams, but they're also banged up, especially at wide receiver. However, I still trust quarterback Brian Lewerke to make plays.

With a spread that I originally made 14.5 without factoring in a potentially huge letdown spot for Northwestern, I'll recommend Michigan State.

Buffalo at Central Michigan

Recommended Pick: Under 52

Buffalo has been an over machine this year, but I'll bet against a Central Michigan offense that's short on explosive plays.

The Bulls and Chippewas have held their own defensively, sitting 40th and 42nd, respectively, in the country in yards allowed per play. Ten of Buffalo's last 13 road games have sailed under the total, as have six of the last eight for the Chippewas at home.

Iowa State at Oklahoma State

Recommended Pick: Under 55.5

My reason for this pick goes back to an earlier dive into just how good Iowa State's defense has played on the road over the last few seasons.

Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan

Recommended Pick: Eastern Michigan +4.5

When Eastern Michigan loses, Eastern Michigan loses close games. It's a shame that head coach Chris Creighton can't be on the long end of the stick there because he deserves more credit for turning the Eagles around. His team has been fantastic in this situation, though, covering 12 of the last 13 on the road as an underdog.

SMU at Central Florida

Recommended Pick: Central Florida -24

I mentioned earlier in the week that UCF could be caught looking ahead to Memphis next week, providing some value with the Mustangs.

Now, after watching what the Golden Knights did to Pitt a week ago, I don't think a crucial game in Week 7 will keep Central Florida's foot off the pedal.

I watched Houston - a mini version of Central Florida - struggle with Tulsa as 17-point chalk on Thursday, and couldn't help but think of the Golden Knights taking SMU lightly.

But from a talent perspective, and because of how much speed there is on UCF's offense, I'd still lay three-plus touchdowns.

Top plays: 14-10

Overall record: 27-23