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NBA awards watch: Eligibility cutoffs mar major races

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Welcome to our recurring look at the top contenders for the NBA's various individual awards. This time, we're assessing matters as the season's final act begins following the All-Star break.

Rookie of the Year

Edgecombe's 14.9 points rank third among rookies, but his impact goes beyond that. He's often tasked with guarding the opposition's best perimeter player, accepting the challenge while remaining a key contributor on offense, where he's shooting better than expected (35.2% from three). He thrives as a spot-up player who can attack closeouts and as an on-ball initiator. The Sixers ask a lot of Edgecombe, and he answers the call with unmatched effort, as evidenced by his league-leading 1.2 loose balls recovered per game.

Odds: +6600

Knueppel has drilled the second-most threes in the league (183), trailing Donovan Mitchell by two. He's threatening to become the first rookie to lead the NBA in 3-pointers and remains on pace to shatter the all-time rookie mark, which Keegan Murray set in 2023 with 206. But don't mistake Knueppel for a one-dimensional player. His all-around skill set (18.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists) has been a huge catalyst for the Hornets' midseason emergence. His off-ball movement, on-ball creation, finishing, rebounding, and playmaking, in particular, are more advanced than that of most other rookies.

Odds: +400

Flagg's 49 games are a large enough sample size to call him one of the best rookie two-way players ever. The 19-year-old leads all first-year NBAers in scoring (20.4 points) while adding 6.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists. He plays with a rare, unteachable combo of force and patience, allowing him to reach any spot on the floor and dominate as a scorer and playmaker. A 30.2% mark from three is his only flaw, but Flagg, who shot 38.5% from deep in his lone season at Duke, should continue to develop in that area.

Odds: -600

Defensive Player of the Year

Four-time winner Gobert is eyeing a record fifth DPOY award, and he's been tasked with a substantial burden, as the Timberwolves have occasionally struggled on that end of the floor. Still, Minnesota owns the league's seventh-best defense (112.4), a return that vastly improves with Gobert on the court (107.9). That mark would be the second-best defensive rating behind the Thunder. That's enough to keep Scottie Barnes from entering top-three territory.

Odds: +1500

First-time All-Star Holmgren is the primary rim protector for a Thunder team that's been without multiple wing defenders for a majority of the season and interior help from Isaiah Hartenstein for nearly half of it. And yet, Oklahoma City boasts the league's best defensive rating (107.8). Holmgren leads the NBA in defensive win shares (3.2) and sits fourth in blocks per game (1.9), impressive numbers for someone averaging fewer than 30 minutes.

Odds: +300

Wembanyama is at risk of missing out on end-of-season awards for the second straight year due to the 65-game requirement. The towering Frenchman will become ineligible if he misses four more contests. For now, he leads the league in blocks per game (2.6), defensive rebounds per 100 possessions (15.1), and defensive rating (102.9). Although Adam Silver has an immeasurable to-do list, modifying the award eligibility terms should be near the top of it.

Odds: -300

Most Improved Player

George has increased his scoring average from 16.8 points last season to 23.8 this campaign. The third-year guard is shooting a career-high 45.8% from the field and 37.5% from deep. His ascension has made the Jazz better than expected, sparking especially strong tanking efforts to keep their top-eight protected pick. That explains why he's missed six of the team's last seven outings. George's availability might become too scarce for him to qualify for this award.

Odds: +1300

Johnson is one of two players averaging at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists, with the other being Nikola Jokic. Johnson's jump from 18.9 points during an injury-riddled 2024-25 campaign to 23.3 points this season led to his first All-Star appearance. But the biggest improvement from the Hawks standout has come as a playmaker; his assists average has risen from 3.6 during the 2023-24 campaign to 5.0 last season to 8.2 this year.

Odds: +180

As long as Avdija doesn't miss more than seven games the rest of the year, he'll earn Most Improved Player. His scoring average has surged from 16.9 points last season to 25.2 on similar efficiency. The first-time All-Star is also generating more assists per game (6.6) while having the highest usage rate of his career. Avdija, Jokic, and Luka Doncic are the only players averaging at least 25 points, seven rebounds, and six assists.

Odds: -120

Sixth Man of the Year

Jaquez's mark of 15.3 points per game leads all players who have come off the bench in at least 40 games. Miami owns the fourth-highest scoring bench, which largely benefits from his downhill driving. The third-year forward is producing the highest usage rate of his career and has nearly doubled last season's assists average by consistently touching the paint and kicking the ball out to open shooters.

Odds: +450

Johnson's job might seem easy with Wembanyama and the Spurs' trio of guards demanding most of the defensive attention. However, the team's role players are just as important to its success. Johnson, San Antonio's fifth-leading scorer, plays a significant part as an efficient spot-up shooter, converting 38% of his 3-point attempts. He's also tied with Julian Champagnie for the second-most total rebounds on the team and is a dogged defender.

Odds: +300

Despite Reid averaging the sixth-most minutes for the Timberwolves, his 14.2 points rank fourth on the team and second among players who have come off the bench in at least 40 games. The 2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year is shooting 38.5% from three this season, allowing Minnesota to play him at the four alongside Gobert and as a stretch-five when Gobert sits.

Odds: +165

Most Valuable Player

Availability has become as a major factor in the MVP race. Although he's missed 12 games due to various injuries, Doncic is arguably having the best season of his eight-year career. The 26-year-old leads the league in scoring (32.8 points) as the offensive focal point of a good Lakers team, keeping Wembanyama, Cade Cunningham, and others off this list.

Odds: +2000

Jokic remains eligible for awards by a paper-thin margin. He's appeared in 39 of the Nuggets' 55 contests, meaning he can only rack up one more absence while still clearing the 65-game cutoff. The three-time MVP is averaging 28.7 points, the second-highest mark of his career, along with personal bests in assists (10.7) and 3-point percentage (42%). Plus, he's on track to average a triple-double for the second consecutive season.

Odds: +275

Jokic's knee injury widened the gap between him and Gilgeous-Alexander, a gap that's shrunk slightly during the latter's current five-game absence. Still, the reigning MVP is averaging the league's second-most points (31.8) on career-best percentages (55.4% overall, 39% from three) and efficiency. Perhaps most importantly, he's guided a Thunder team beset with critical injuries to Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, and others to the top spot in the Western Conference.

Odds: -175

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