Trust Lillard to step up vs. Magic in Giannis' absence
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After a loaded Tuesday night of NBA action, we have eight more games Wednesday. That means many teams are playing on a back-to-back.
There are various seeding implications in Wednesday's games, including the West's top seed on the line. Let's get to our four bets.
Mavericks @ Heat (+4, O/U 215.5)
The Mavericks and Heat are both playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, but the Mavs cruised to an easy 26-point victory over the Hornets, while the Heat won a hard-fought double-overtime battle against the Hawks.
Each team played on the road Monday and had to travel to Miami. Dallas is much better with no rest than Miami is. The Mavs are 10-3 against the spread with no rest, while the Heat are 6-5-1.
Miami has an elite defense, but the Mavs have the league's sixth-best attack and best clutch offense. The Heat's rim protection and creative schemes can't shut down Luka Doncic and the Mavs, who've won 15 of their last 17 games.
Pick: Mavs -4
Magic @ Bucks (+1, O/U 216)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is out against the Magic as he deals with a calf injury. The Bucks' offensive rating drops from 119 to 109 when Antetokounmpo is off the floor, the league's fourth-worst offense.
Even with the Greek Freak, Milwaukee would've been in tough against the Magic's third-best defense. Six of the Magic's last nine games have fallen short of the total. Orlando's defense is exceptional, but its offense ranks in the league's bottom third.
Fatigue may play a factor as both groups take the floor for the second time in as many nights.
Pick: Under 216
Damian Lillard: Over 27.5 points
Lillard is the obvious option to see an increase in scoring during Antetokounmpo's absence. He's the Bucks' second-leading scorer, but his scoring is drastically down from last season.
Milwaukee needs him to lift a larger load without Antetokounmpo. He's done that in games without the Bucks' superstar this season, averaging 32 points.
Although the Magic have aggressive perimeter defenders, no one can stop Lillard when he's shooting it well from deep. The Bucks are counting on him, and he should deliver.
Odds: -125
Nikola Jokic: Under 8.5 assists
Jokic's vision and passing instincts are one of the many qualities that make him the NBA's best player. However, Jokic struggles to rack up assists against the Timberwolves.
Jokic is averaging 3.2 assists in three games against Minnesota. The Timberwolves have the league's best defense. While Rudy Gobert can't stop Jokic, the rest of the T-Wolves' defense can slow down Jokic's supporting cast, which will make it difficult for Jokic to record assists.
The winner of this game will move into first place in the West. The Nuggets are 5.5-point favorites and should prevail, but it's Jokic's scoring that will carry them there.
Odds: -120
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.