Bet or Bail: Towns-less T-Wolves, and a Bucks check-in
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Imagine the scene a month from today: March Madness chaos will be in the rearview, it'll officially be spring, and all 30 NBA teams will be wrapping up the final day of the regular season. It'll be playoff - and play-in tournament - time.
But there's a lot to figure out between now and then. Some teams have to treat the last month like the postseason as they battle for positioning to avoid the play-in.
In this edition of Bet or Bail, we're focusing on two teams at or near the top of their respective conferences.
How Towns' injury impacts T-Wolves
Long-suffering Timberwolves fans finally experienced some hope, joy, and optimism over the last few months, before a familiar feeling of heartbreak and agony swept through the organization. Karl-Anthony Towns hurt his knee 10 days ago. The injury appeared serious at the time but was later diagnosed as a meniscus tear, prompting a sigh of relief across Minnesota.
Towns had surgery but is expected to return this season. Oddsmakers never believed the Wolves' regular-season success would translate to the playoffs - they always trailed the Nuggets, Clippers, Suns, and Thunder on the oddsboard. Minnesota was +900 to win the West before Towns' injury and is +1300 now.
After initial warranted skepticism, the Towns and Rudy Gobert frontcourt pairing finally clicked. The bigs' towering presence, Anthony Edwards' star emergence, and a stifling perimeter defense propelled the Timberwolves into first place in the West.
But the Wolves have missed Towns since his absence - obviously - and are slipping in the standings without their second-leading scorer and rebounder.
Towns is the self-proclaimed best shooting big of all time. He actually has a case for himself. The All-Star is shooting 42% from three on over five attempts per game, leading to 22 points a night.
His knockdown shooting ability - 43% on catch-and-shoot looks - creates space for Edwards and Gobert to operate in the pick-and-roll:
Towns' capacity to stretch the defense doesn't create collisions in the lane, which usually happens when playing two bigs, especially a non-shooter like Gobert.
The Wolves have a 116 offensive rating (top 12 in the NBA) with Towns on the floor. That dips to 107 when he's out, second worst in the league.
Although they picked up a convincing win over the Clippers on Tuesday when Kawhi Leonard left the game early, the Wolves are 2-2 since Towns' injury.
Edwards has inevitably had to carry a larger offensive load. He's averaging 31.3 points on 28.5 shots per game over the last four games, up from his season averages of 26 points on 20 shots.
Naz Reid has benefitted the most. The backup center is playing more minutes and pouring in more points. He doesn't have the shooting precision Towns does - no big does - but Reid's still a serviceable shooting forward.
Reid's earned more minutes since Towns went down and is being asked to shoot more threes. Despite a quiet outing against L.A. on Tuesday, Reid drilled 13 threes in the last four games. He's gone over his points prop in three of the last four games. The fifth-year player is admirably filling the hole Towns left as a shooting big:
The Wolves go into Thursday's action as the No. 3 seed in a tight race atop the West. If Towns can't return healthy for the playoffs, the Wolves' season will end in the first round. For now, Minnesota needs to continue to stay afloat without its star.
What to make of Doc's Bucks
The Bucks' defensive deficiencies ultimately led to Adrian Griffin's midseason firing.
Doc Rivers' priority was to get the defense - which ranked fourth in defensive rating last season - on track. And he's done just that. Despite suspect perimeter personnel, Rivers has taken team that couldn't stop a nosebleed and turned it into a surgical group.
The Bucks had a below-average defense before the All-Star break. In the last 15 games, the Bucks own a top-11 defensive rating. Milwaukee started 1-5 in Rivers' first six games but is 9-5 since. It covered the spread in all nine wins in that span.
The Bucks' defensive turnaround catapulted them back into a tie with the Cavs for the East's No. 2 seed. But it's also led to an exceptional under streak: 17 of the 20 games (85%) Rivers has coached have gone under or landed on the total. Before that, only 40% of Bucks games went under the total.
History says not to trust Rivers' teams in the playoffs. Milwaukee will likely walk to the Eastern Conference finals in a discombobulated and injury-riddled East. It still has the second-best odds to win the East (+315) and fourth best to win the NBA Finals.
The Bucks' superstar pairing can match up against the Celtics' and they'll have the best player in that series, but do they have enough depth? Khris Middleton hasn't played since early February and has shown a steep decline over the last two years. He's no longer a dependable third option.
Offensively, the Bucks are running slightly more pick-and-roll actions with Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That's led to better production from Lillard, who was having his best month of the season before his uncharacteristically poor outing Tuesday.
Lillard's knocking down 40% of his threes in March, leading to his cashing the over on his 3-point props - usually listed at 3.5 - in six of the last nine games
The Bucks still aren't a legitimate threat to the Celtics (-125 to win the East) but their improvement on both ends has created a sizable gap between them and the East's next tier.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.