Bet or Bail: Impact of OG trade, Mavs' supporting cast

January heralds the dog days of the NBA season. Teams often enter cruise control ahead of February's trade deadline and All-Star break. January produces wacky results and suspect performances as teams position for playoff spots and seeding around the halfway mark of the season.

That won't stop us from watching, betting, and analyzing the games every week. In 2024's first edition of Bet or Bail, we hit on two NBA themes: The Knicks-Raptors trade and Luka Doncic's impact on once-ousted players. Let's get to it.

Bet or Bail on Knicks and Raptors following trade?

The RJ Barrett experiment in New York ended over the weekend when the Knicks sent him, Immanuel Quickley, and a second-round pick to the Raptors in exchange for OG Anunoby, Malachi Flynn, and Precious Achiuwa.

Anunoby is undoubtedly an upgrade from Barrett as a scorer, shooter, and defender. Barrett never became the reliable third option the Knicks hoped he would be when they signed him to a contract extension in 2022.

He was a below-average 3-point shooter for most of his Knicks tenure and couldn't consistently create for himself. Perhaps it was his role, but Barrett never proved to be anything better than a replacement-level starter. Anunoby's older and is a more polished catch-and-shoot shooter and on-ball defender.

Quickley was a leading Sixth Man of the Year candidate and provided steady bench scoring. New York's second unit, which had the sixth-best bench offensive rating with Quickley leading the group, is weaker without him. However, it became clear the two sides wouldn't agree to a deal in the offseason, so it made sense to trade away the 15-point-per-game scorer.

Did the Knicks get better in the short term with this trade? Probably not, and if they did, the improvement is marginal. New York's odds of winning the NBA Finals (+4000) and Eastern Conference (+2200) haven't changed. However, if this deal eventually leads to another one for that elusive star New York's been chasing - the Knicks have plenty of tradable draft assets - then this move will have a fond legacy.

For now, the Knicks - who already rank eighth in 3-point percentage - should become a better shooting team with Anunoby playing alongside Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle. Anunoby has shot over 38% from deep the last two seasons, while Barrett's connected on about 32% of his threes during that span.

The Knicks attempt the league's seventh-most corner threes and the fourth-most from the right corner. With Anunoby attempting those shots, there should be a slight uptick in threes made. That could help him hit the over on his point and 3-pointer props more consistently. It should also give a boost to Brunson's assist totals.

The Knicks went from this:

To this:

Anunoby hit four 3-pointers in his first two games with New York. Brunson soared past his assist totals in both games, dishing out 13 and 14 assists. Six of those 27 assists were to Anunoby. Brunson hadn't recorded 10 assists in any other game this season.

Anunoby improves the Knicks defensively more than anything. He has the size and foot speed to switch onto both guards and forwards. The Knicks' defense has tanked without a reliable rim-protector in Mitchell Robinson. They have the ninth-worst defensive rating over the last 12 games. Anunoby doesn't provide the size Robinson did, but he does bring versatility.

Knicks games went over the total at a 56% rate before Anunoby arrived, higher than their 50% rate from last season. An improved defense could lead to more unders - the Knicks' last two games went under the total.

The Knicks - currently tied for the sixth seed in the East at 19-15 - are long shots to make a serious run in the playoffs. There's only value in placing a future bet on New York if a star becomes available before this year's trade deadline. Dejounte Murray has been linked to New York and would improve its chances, but he wouldn't move the needle drastically. The Knicks are more likely to wait until the offseason to hunt for a potential needle-mover to pair with their core (Donovan Mitchell, maybe?)

The Raptors knew they weren't re-signing Anunoby this summer, so it was wise to trade him and get something of value. Barrett is under contract until 2027, so he can grow with a young core. Quickley expects a massive payday, which means keeping him will be a challenge. Toronto has plenty of time to decide if he's worth the contract.

Quickley moved into a starter role, becoming an initiator and primary scorer next to Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam (for only so much longer). Quickley averaged 15 points on 39.5% from three in 24 minutes per game with the Knicks. He's averaging 20 points in 30.5 minutes per game in his first two games in Toronto.

The Raptors are +360 to make the playoffs. Although it should help in the future, acquiring two new starters doesn't change the Raptors' season outlook.

Bet on the Mavs' resurrected role players

Dallas is becoming the resurrection capital of the NBA.

After the Jazz drafted him fifth overall in 2014, Dante Exum's career trajectory resembled that of a bust. Injuries derailed his early years, and he never developed into a high-level - or even capable - NBA player.

Exum's shooting woes - among other inadequacies - eventually pushed him out of the league. He shot 29.2% from three during his first seven seasons. After appearing in just six games for the Cavaliers during the 2020-21 season, Exum joined Barcelona to play in the EuroLeague. His career didn't go as he - or talent evaluators - envisioned when he came over from Australia in 2014.

This past summer, the Mavs, who were desperate for role players to surround Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving with, took a flier on the 28-year-old on a cheap deal.

It paid off. Exum looks like an entirely different player from his first seven-year NBA stint. He's averaging a career-high 9.3 points per game on 45% shooting from deep and 57% from the field, almost 10 percentage points better than his previous career high in field goal percentage.

The hiatus abroad certainly helped Exum refine his game - and jumper - but playing alongside Doncic is a dream scenario for any spot-up player and has allowed Exum to flourish.

Doncic elevates his teammates in a way nobody - well, bar Nikola Jokic - does. Doncic has the league's second-highest usage percentage and is known for his excessive dribbling, but he commands so much attention from the defense that it creates shots for his teammates.

Doncic is the NBA's best passer. He's third in assists, but his instincts and ability to react to layers of the defense are uncanny.

And who benefits? Role players like Exum who, if they consistently knock down shots, earn career years playing beside Doncic. The Mavs have a 9.7 net rating with Exum on the court and are minus-5.1 without him.

Doncic has assisted almost a third of Exum's made threes. Many of them look like the clip below, where Doncic draws multiple defenders. All five Warriors turn their back on their assignments to cue in on Doncic, leaving shooters - like Exum - wide open on the perimeter:

Exum drives to the rim more frequently than he settles for perimeter shots. Doncic's fingerprints are all over many of his drives.

Here, the Suns double-team Doncic as he comes off a screen. The Suns' help defenders zero in on Doncic and Grant Williams, who rolls to the rim. The Suns are so focused on the ball in Doncic's hands that they turn their back on Exum. Doncic delivers a pass to the corner, forcing the Suns to X-out, which results in Exum attacking a poor closeout for a dunk at the rim:

Let's check in on another Maverick who entered the league in 2016 as an undrafted free agent and has never been considered an impact player on a quality team.

Derrick Jones Jr. is averaging a career-high 25 minutes and 10.2 points per game. He's started in almost every single Mavs game this season. Once known for his incredible jumping ability and catapult-like dunks, Jones is having a career-best year from long range.

Jones - like Exum - deserves credit for improving his shot, but Doncic has once again played a huge role. Almost half of Jones' threes have come from a Doncic assist. Jones has gone over his points prop in six of the last 10 games, while Doncic has gone over his assist prop in six of the last nine contests.

This is brilliant by Doncic, who knows the defense will shift over to tag Dereck Lively II as he rolls to the rim after setting an on-ball screen. Doncic's deceptive eyes and slight pass-fake force the defense to shift before he delivers a pass to an open Jones in the corner.

Doncic is the NBA's second-leading scorer, averaging 33.7 points and 9.3 assists per game on a team two games back from fourth place in the West.

Dallas' biggest concern entering the season was its supporting cast behind Doncic and Irving. That ultimately prevented it from making the postseason last year. Exum and Jones, along with rookie center Lively and sixth man Tim Hardaway Jr., have helped Doncic elevate the Mavs to a surefire playoff team, especially given how disappointing free-agent signing Williams has been.

The Mavs are -240 (70% implied probability) to make the playoffs and +1400 to make the NBA Finals, the seventh-best in the West. With Doncic's heroics and the right supporting cast, the Mavs could make a run in an open West.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.