What odds say about where Kyrie will play next season
The Dallas Mavericks are the massive favorites to re-sign Kyrie Irving at -500 when free agency opens Friday at 6 p.m. ET. However, Irving is reportedly meeting with various teams before he decides.
The Mavs took a gamble by trading for Irving on an expiring contract in February, intending to re-sign him later. Despite Dallas falling apart in the final months of the regular season, it has no choice but to double down on its Irving bet.
The Luka Doncic-Irving pairing led to little success in a limited sample size. The Mavs went 8-12 with Irving in the lineup and 5-11 with both Doncic and Irving in the lineup. However, those records are more a result of the surrounding talent than an indictment on Irving and Doncic's fit together.
While all signs point to Irving re-signing with the Mavericks, there are other avenues he can explore. The question comes down to what does Irving really want? A lengthy deal with a ton of guaranteed money? To form a super team but sacrifice millions of dollars? A destination he can play at for the rest of his career? No one knows. It's hard to evaluate his next landing spot without knowing his motives.
But the dwindling market for Irving due to his off-court antics and the lack of cap space from contenders across the league creates the likelihood that Irving returns to Dallas.
The Mavs need Irving, and Irving needs the Mavs. Dallas' deal in February will look foolish if the guard walks in free agency. There's no scenario in which the Mavs can replace Irving's production for next season, so whether it's wise to sign Irving to a long-term deal is irrelevant. The Mavs have to take the chance and hope it pays off, or they risk alienating their superstar Doncic.
Irving would also be wise to take a long-term deal, and he won't find that anywhere else on the market. If he truly doesn't care about the money or length of the contract, that's a different story. But it's hard to imagine that being the case. Irving is likely using meetings with other teams as a negotiating tactic to drive up the Mavs' price.
Kyrie Irving's next team odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | -400 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +550 |
| Phoenix Suns | +600 |
| Miami Heat | +1000 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | +1200 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +2500 |
LeBron James and Irving have publicly flirted with each other for the last couple of years about a potential reunion. If the former teammates were ever going to partner up again, it would be now. But the Lakers don't seem inclined to offer Irving a long-term deal, and understandably so. Irving missed 42% of his teams' games over the last three seasons.
Los Angeles also has its own restricted free agents to worry about with Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. Despite Irving's and James' wishes, Irving is a long shot to end up with the Lakers.
The Heat reportedly inquired about Irving during last season's trade deadline before the Brooklyn Nets shipped him to the Mavericks. From a basketball standpoint, Irving would be a perfect addition to the Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo duo. But logistically, it's a challenge.
Miami doesn't have the cap space to sign Irving to the contract he presumably desires. A sign-and-trade is the only way to facilitate Irving going to the Heat, and Miami would have to dump highly paid players like Tyler Herro onto Dallas. The problem is there's no reason for the Mavs to help Irving land at his preferred destination, so it's unlikely they'd agree to that.
The Clippers, Suns, and Wolves don't have the cap space to pay Irving anything close to the Mavs. But he could sign for the veteran minimum ($2.7 million last season) if he's willing to sacrifice a lot of money to play for the Suns or Clippers. Or, similar to Miami, the teams could facilitate a sign-and-trade.
Irving reportedly has a meeting scheduled with Phoenix, and the betting markets adjusted. On Thursday morning, the Suns were +2500 to land Irving. A day later, they're +600.
The only thing predictable about Irving is that he's unpredictable. Irving playing anywhere other than Dallas next year would surprise everyone around the league. But with Irving, it's hard to say for sure.
Whether it's a forced marriage or a genuine one, the Mavs and Irving are likely stuck with each other for the foreseeable future.