Breaking down MLB's best races down the stretch

MLB's regular season is heading for a thrilling finish, with division titles and playoff spots decided over the final seven weeks. Here, we look at the tightest races and how we think they'll end up.

Who wins the NL West?

Padres: The reigning World Series champions are in some trouble, and the Padres are taking advantage. San Diego has lost only three contests since July 26 and holds a one-game lead over L.A. atop the division. The timing couldn't be better, given the SoCal rivals are about to play each other six times over the next 10 days. The Padres also have a unique swagger. Not only are they not afraid of the star-studded Dodgers, but they believe they're the better team. San Diego clearly sees a complacent squad that thought it could sleepwalk to October and has seized the opportunity. The road to the NL West is running through San Diego in 2025. - Sharkey-Gotlieb

Dodgers: There's no denying that Los Angeles is in a funk. The team is 10-14 in the second half and has watched its nine-game lead in the division evaporate. But still, these are the reigning World Series champion Dodgers, winners of 11 of the last 12 NL West titles. The pitching staff is finally starting to get healthy, Max Muncy is back to inject some more life into the offense, and Mookie Betts is showing signs of coming out of his season-long malaise. The bullpen is a legitimate concern, but this is a veteran, battle-tested team that knows how to flip the switch when things matter most. Maybe this upcoming series with the Padres is exactly what the Dodgers need to get their groove back. - Wile

Who wins the AL West?

Mariners: For years, everyone has looked at the Mariners and said, "If only they could find some offense." Well, they've finally found it, and look where they are. Josh Naylor has been an absolute revelation for Seattle, serving as an anchor and spark plug for the entire unit. Thanks to Naylor and pitching, the Mariners have climbed to within 1.5 games of Houston at the top of the division despite Eugenio Suárez's post-trade struggles and Cal Raleigh's second-half slump. Once those two get going again, a lineup of Raleigh, Suárez, Naylor, Randy Arozarena, and Julio Rodríguez will be hard to beat. The AL West is wide open, and the Mariners have all the ingredients to knock off Houston. This is finally their year. - Sharkey-Gotlieb

Astros: It feels like we've been trying to predict the fall of Houston for years, and the team keeps finding new ways to win. The Astros have held the division lead since June 3 despite an overwhelming amount of injuries, and now they're starting to get healthy at the right time (with the exception of Josh Hader). Cristian Javier made his season debut earlier this week. Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., and Yordan Alvarez are also expected to rejoin the club at some point in the near future. Don't sleep on the impact of Carlos Correa's reunion with the organization, either. Not only will he help the offense, but his addition at third base gives the squad another excellent defender who brings exceptional leadership. Considering the Astros have the easiest schedule of any AL team down the stretch, it's hard not to consider them the favorites to win a fifth-straight division title. - Wile

Who wins the AL East?

Blue Jays: How can you doubt them at this point? John Schneider's Blue Jays seem to be passing every test thrown their way en route to opening up a sizeable division lead and grabbing the AL's best record. Their remaining schedule isn't soft, but it's spread out favorably. After Sept. 11, Toronto plays only three games against teams that currently own a winning record. The Blue Jays will also soon get George Springer and a fresh Shane Bieber back to help down the stretch. And, like last year's Tigers, this club is playing with house money because nobody was expecting this kind of run - and those are the most dangerous kinds of teams. Toronto hangs on to take the division. - Sharkey-Gotlieb

Red Sox: It's probably going to be the Blue Jays, especially with them holding a five-game lead plus the critical tiebreaker over Boston and New York. Still, I'm not ready to count out one last push by the Red Sox down the stretch to at least make things interesting. Alex Cora's club has a favorable schedule, with only 13 of its final 40 games against teams currently in a playoff spot, including three against Toronto. Boston has gone 24-12 over the last two months, led by an offense that ranks ninth in MLB in runs scored since the All-Star break and a pitching staff that owns the AL's third-lowest ERA over that time. Kristian Campbell's resurgence in Triple-A could also open the door to a promotion soon, giving the offense another potentially dynamic bat for the final push. - Wile

Do the Yankees make the playoffs?

No: The Yankees play incredibly sloppy baseball. Sloppy teams rarely make it to October. The time for them to correct these mistakes was in May or June, not mid-to-late August, when you're starting to peek at the scoreboard. New York has allowed Toronto and Boston to fly past it in the AL East and is suddenly clinging to a half-game lead over Cleveland for the final AL wild-card spot. Making matters worse, the Yankees have already lost head-to-head tiebreakers with the Astros, Blue Jays, and Tigers, and they're close to losing it against the Red Sox, too. At this point, the hole is so deep it might be too difficult for New York to get out of. - Sharkey-Gotlieb

Yes: It feels like the Yankees do this same song and dance every year: they build what feels like an insurmountable lead in the division, play so poorly that we question Aaron Boone's and Brian Cashman's futures, and then somehow figure it out in time to make a run through the playoffs. This edition of the Bronx Bombers is incredibly flawed, but it's also incredibly talented. The new bullpen editions will acclimate themselves to New York, Giancarlo Stanton hasn't been a disaster in the outfield while crushing the ball, and Aaron Judge appears to have avoided the worst with his injury. Another thing working in the Yankees' favor is they own the AL's second-easiest schedule to end the season, and the teams chasing them - the Guardians, Rangers, and Royals - have their own flaws. - Wile

Do the Mets make the playoffs?

Yes: In contrast to their civic rival, the Mets are going to be fine. Yes, they aren't playing particularly well of late, but holding onto an NL wild-card spot should be easier since there are fewer contenders to fend off compared to the AL. Seven games against the Phillies also offer a potential opening to gain ground. Meanwhile, the team closest to New York in the wild-card standings, Cincinnati, has one of the toughest remaining schedules. This isn't to say that the Mets will go far in October - they have glaring issues - but they'll get there. - Sharkey-Gotlieb

No: New York owns the worst record (2-10) in the majors in August and has lost its last five series. Despite Pete Alonso and Juan Soto combining for 10 home runs this month, the pitching staff has gotten crushed, posting a 5.30 ERA. All five of New York's starters have an ERA over 4.50 in August, leaving the offense struggling to keep up. Things don't get any easier for the Mets either, as 25 of their final 41 games are against teams with winning records. While it's true the Reds have a difficult schedule, they have a deep pitching staff that just got Hunter Greene back and a roster capable of going on a run. - Wile