AL Cy Young odds update: Will Cease's historic run upend race?
Dylan Cease has never made an MLB All-Star team, and his snub this past week was arguably the most notable of the exhibition. But he's quietly making his case as the best pitcher in the American League.
The White Sox ace spun another gem on Sunday, shutting out the Guardians across six innings to slash his ERA to 2.03 on the season. It also extended a ridiculous two-month stretch in which he's given up just three earned runs across his last 11 starts; only Bob Gibson (1968) has accomplished that.
Spoiler alert: Gibson won the Cy Young Award that year. And Cease's odds of doing the same are shortening by the day.
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | +165 |
| Justin Verlander | +280 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +900 |
| Dylan Cease | +900 |
| Gerrit Cole | +1100 |
| Alek Manoah | +1700 |
| Kevin Gausman | +1900 |
| Logan Gilbert | +3000 |
| Nestor Cortes | +3200 |
| Shane Bieber | +3500 |
| Framber Valdez | +5000 |
| Martin Perez | +6500 |
| Robbie Ray | +8000 |
| Michael Kopech | +8500 |
| Lucas Giolito | +9000 |
| Tarik Skubal | +9000 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | +10000 |
| Frankie Montas | +10000 |
| Luis Garcia | +10000 |
| Jose Berrios | +15000 |
| Noah Syndergaard | +15000 |
| Paul Blackburn | +15000 |
| Lance Lynn | +20000 |
| Jose Urquidy | +20000 |
| Zack Greinke | +25000 |
| Brad Keller | +25000 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | +25000 |
| Corey Kluber | +25000 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | +25000 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | +25000 |
| Garrett Whitlock | +25000 |
| Marco Gonzalez | +30000 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | +30000 |
| Chris Sale | +30000 |
| Jake Odorizzi | +50000 |
The 26-year-old righty opened the season among the Cy Young favorites but saw his odds balloon in mid-May when he carried a 4.24 ERA through nine starts. After Sunday's shutout, he's tied for the third-shortest odds (+900) at Barstool Sportsbook to win the award - trailing only All-Star starter Shane McClanahan (+165) and two-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander (+280).
The race between Cease and McClanahan is particularly compelling when comparing their stat lines entering the week. They've each pitched an identical 110 2/3 innings as of Monday, with Cease needing two more games to hit that mark. They rank first and second in strikeouts per nine - Cease (12.5) slotting ahead of McClanahan (12) - while McClanahan's AL-best 1.71 ERA ranks just ahead of Cease's third-place mark (2.03).
The difference has been command. Cease's walks per nine (3.98) ranks last among qualified starters in the AL, whereas McClanahan (1.55) ranks second-best in that metric. It's a key reason why the latter grades out far better via advanced stats like WIP (0.795), FIP (2.42), xERA (2.29), and SIERA (2.21) - ranking first or second in the AL in all four metrics.
So, at this point, it only makes sense for the Rays' young flamethrower to pace the field, especially with a sterling 10-3 record in 18 starts. But if Cease keeps up this Gibson-like run over the second half of the season, he won't be a dark-horse candidate for much longer.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.