Re-ranking the top 10 FAs for 2020 following MLB's extension bonanza
The free-agent class of 2020 shrunk again on Monday when the Boston Red Sox signed shortstop Xander Bogaerts to a six-year contract extension.
By re-upping with his current team, Bogaerts joined a growing list of MLB stars who've recently done the same to avoid the uncertainty of free agency. But even still, there's an impressive group of players who are expected to hit the open market at season's end.
Barring more extensions, here are the top 10 projected free agents for 2020:
10. Rick Porcello, SP

| YEAR | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 191.1 | 17-7 | 4.28 | 1.18 | 190 |
| 2017 | 203.1 | 11-17 | 4.65 | 1.40 | 181 |
| 2016 | 223 | 22-4 | 3.15 | 1.01 | 189 |
The Red Sox recently handed extensions to Bogaerts and Chris Sale, and also inked Nathan Eovaldi to a four-year deal in December. However, Porcello might not get the same treatment.
The 2016 AL Cy Young Award winner tried to get an extension done with Boston before Opening Day, even offering to take a discount, but the team apparently declined to make him an offer.
At this point, the 30-year-old workhorse, who's never logged fewer than 160 innings in a season, looks primed to hit free agency. If Porcello can stay healthy and avoid a disastrous 2019 campaign, he shouldn't have a problem finding work.
9. Yasiel Puig, OF

| YEAR | PA | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 444 | 23 | 63 | .820 | 1.8 |
| 2017 | 570 | 28 | 74 | .833 | 2.9 |
| 2016 | 368 | 11 | 45 | .740 | 1.0 |
Puig is scheduled to enter free agency for the first time since arriving in North America as a Cuban defector.
The enigmatic, bat-licking 28-year-old is a unique and talented player who puts butts in seats and produced at least 20 homers, 20 doubles, and 15 stolen bases in each of the last two seasons.
On the other hand, some might view Puig as a risky free-agent signing due to some on-field incidents and inconsistent production in previous seasons.
8. Josh Donaldson, 3B

| YEAR | PA | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 219 | 8 | 23 | .801 | 1.3 |
| 2017 | 496 | 33 | 78 | .944 | 5.1 |
| 2016 | 700 | 37 | 99 | .953 | 7.6 |
Donaldson has a lot to prove with the Braves if he wants to cash in next winter.
First, the 33-year-old must show he's healthy and can withstand the rigors of a grueling 162-game regular season and potentially the playoffs. The former MVP also has to prove he can still produce like the player who was worth more WAR than anyone not named Mike Trout from 2013-17.
If Donaldson does all that, teams might be willing to invest in his future next offseason.
7. Marcell Ozuna, OF

| YEAR | PA | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 628 | 23 | 88 | .758 | 2.7 |
| 2017 | 679 | 37 | 124 | .924 | 5.1 |
| 2016 | 608 | 23 | 76 | .773 | 2.4 |
Ozuna experienced up-and-down years with the Miami Marlins after debuting in 2014, and then produced a massive 2017 campaign with 37 homers, 124 RBIs, and a .924 OPS.
He regressed after being traded to St. Louis last offseason, but still hit at least 23 home runs for the third straight year.
In 2019, Ozuna will have a golden opportunity to increase his free-agent value while hitting behind Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, and Paul DeJong. At his best, he could be a game-changing addition for a team next offseason.
6. Didi Gregorius, SS

| YEAR | PA | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 569 | 27 | 86 | .829 | 4.6 |
| 2017 | 570 | 25 | 87 | .796 | 4.0 |
| 2016 | 597 | 20 | 70 | .751 | 2.7 |
With Bogaerts off the board, Gregorius will be the top shortstop available in free agency next offseason - if he gets there. The Yankees reportedly began extension talks with the 29-year-old in March.
From 2016-18, Gregorius found himself among the elite offensive shortstops in baseball, ranking fourth in homers, sixth in slugging percentage, and seventh in RBIs.
However, if he can't work out a deal with the Yankees, Gregorius will only have the second half of this season to impress potential suitors, as he's still recovering from Tommy John surgery and likely won't return until around the All-Star break.
5. Khris Davis, DH

| YEAR | PA | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 654 | 48 | 123 | .874 | 2.6 |
| 2017 | 652 | 43 | 110 | .864 | 2.5 |
| 2016 | 610 | 42 | 102 | .831 | 2.4 |
Since 2016, no player in baseball has slugged more home runs than Davis (138), and while he rarely takes the field defensively, the 31-year-old is clearly a strong middle-of-the-order bat.
DH-only types didn't fare too well in free agency this past offseason - Nelson Cruz settled for a one-year deal despite hitting 37 homers in 2018 - but Davis is seven years younger and it'll be interesting to see what offers he receives on the open market.
There's also a chance Davis could stay in Oakland. He's expressed a desire to remain with the club long term and his agent has apparently spoken with the Athletics about a possible extension.
4. Madison Bumgarner, SP

| YEAR | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 129.2 | 6-7 | 3.26 | 1.24 | 109 |
| 2017 | 111 | 4-9 | 3.32 | 1.09 | 101 |
| 2016 | 226.2 | 15-9 | 2.74 | 1.03 | 251 |
With the Giants expected to move in a different direction, there's a very good chance this is Bumgarner's last season in San Francisco. In fact, it'll be surprising if he remains with the club after July's trade deadline.
When healthy, the 29-year-old is still an elite pitcher. He's never posted an ERA or FIP above four in any full season, while his WHIP has never been higher than 1.31.
However, Bumgarner must show he's still durable if he expects to sign a solid long-term deal. He entered this season having pitched just 240 2/3 combined innings across the past two seasons.
3. Gerrit Cole, SP

| YEAR | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 200.1 | 15-5 | 2.88 | 1.03 | 276 |
| 2017 | 203 | 12-12 | 4.26 | 1.25 | 196 |
| 2016 | 116 | 7-10 | 3.88 | 1.44 | 98 |
When free agency rolls around next winter, Cole should be the best arm available on the open market.
The right-hander is a proven top-of-the-rotation starter with some of the league's best stuff. He's also a two-time All-Star, logs a ton of innings (three 200-plus campaigns in the last four years), and struck out a career-high 276 hitters in 2018.
If 2019 goes well, Cole and his agent, Scott Boras, will be looking to cash in. Including this season, the 28-year-old pitcher will have earned just over $25 million combined throughout the first seven years of his big-league career.
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B

| YEAR | PA | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 597 | 24 | 92 | .909 | 6.2 |
| 2017 | 605 | 25 | 100 | .937 | 6.7 |
| 2016 | 647 | 20 | 85 | .797 | 4.3 |
The most sought-after name in free agency might end up being another former Washington Nationals player. After Bryce Harper left D.C. for the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason, Rendon could make his own move after the 2019 campaign.
He doesn't come with Harper's flash and pizzazz, but Rendon is a gifted player on both sides of the field. His stellar 41.7 mark in FanGraphs' Def is the best among all third basemen since 2014 and he's posted an OPS above .900 in each of the last two seasons.
The 28-year-old has said he's open to signing an extension with the Nationals, but like Harper, he should garner plenty of interest if he hits the open market.
1. J.D. Martinez, OF

| YEAR | PA | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 649 | 43 | 130 | 1.031 | 5.9 |
| 2017 | 489 | 45 | 104 | 1.066 | 3.8 |
| 2016 | 517 | 22 | 68 | .908 | 2.3 |
When the 2019 season concludes, Martinez will have a decision to make. He can stick with the Red Sox and earn $62.5 million over the next three years, or he can opt out of his existing deal.
If he chooses the latter, Martinez - assuming the decision is based on another strong season - would be the best player available in free agency.
Since 2016, he owns the highest slugging percentage in MLB. In that span, he's also posted the second-best wRC+ (behind Trout) and the second-best isolated power mark (behind Joey Gallo).
Martinez is popular in Boston and surely enjoys playing for a winner, but the temptation of making even more money in free agency - especially now that he's captured a World Series ring with the Red Sox - might be too much to pass up.
Meanwhile, Boras represents Martinez and hinted earlier this week that the slugger may test free agency after the season. It would be hard to argue with that decision.
Honorable mentions: Stephen Strasburg (opt-out clause), Kenley Jansen (opt-out clause), Jake Arrieta (opt-out clause), Elvis Andrus (opt-out clause), Yasmani Grandal (mutual option), Mike Moustakas (mutual option), Dellin Betances, Jose Abreu, Nicholas Castellanos, Zack Wheeler, Scooter Gennett
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