Premier League predictions: Title winners, UCL spots, and more

After a brief summer break, the 2025-26 Premier League campaign kicks off Friday. We're looking into our crystal ball to predict what'll happen in the top flight of English football this season. Don't fact-check these in May.

Title winners

Daniel Rouse: Liverpool. It's a common mistake to base preseason predictions primarily on transfer business, but it's impossible not to be seduced by Liverpool's deals. Areas of need were addressed, particularly with Milos Kerkez's arrival, while the attack received a significant upgrade. And at times of tragedy, people come together: The squad is likely to be closer than ever after Diogo Jota's death.

Gianluca Nesci: Arsenal. Picking against Liverpool is probably unwise. After running away with the title last season, the Reds went on a massive summer spending spree - which isn't even over yet - to set themselves up for long-term dominance; if they get Alexander Isak, it's a wrap. But those new players need time to adapt. Arsenal have the most continuity of the title challengers, and they finally landed the kind of striker who can push them over the top. It feels like now or never for Mikel Arteta's Gunners after three consecutive second-place finishes.

Champions League places

We predict that the Premier League will again earn a fifth Champions League place through strong performances in Europe this season.

Rouse: Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Newcastle United. Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have a long way to climb, and the other teams trying to break into the top places - like Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest - have barely improved, if at all.

Nesci: Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Tottenham Hotspur. The gap between the top four and everyone else is large. Assuming fifth place again yields a Champions League berth, Tottenham's continued revamp makes them an intriguing choice. The other clubs in the mix have either been too stagnant this summer or have regressed, but Spurs have plenty of room to improve with Thomas Frank at the helm, especially if they can land Savinho and Eberechi Eze.

Relegated clubs

Rouse: Burnley, Leeds United, and Sunderland. This will be the third consecutive season that the three promoted teams go straight back down. The chasm between the Premier League and Championship is huge.

Nesci: Brentford, Burnley, and Sunderland. I want to believe that exciting signings like Habib Diarra and Chemsdine Talbi will help Sunderland stay up, but the leap from the second tier has become almost impossible to navigate. Brentford could be in big trouble after losing their coach, captain, and best player this summer, with Yoane Wissa possibly joining the exodus.

Full predicted table

In our predicted table, the top five qualify for the Champions League, while sixth place yields a Europa League berth. The winners of the League Cup secure a spot in the Conference League.

PFA Player of the Year

Rouse: Bukayo Saka. Arsenal can now give more consideration to their most influential player's workload following the arrival of Noni Madueke, so Saka will hopefully stay fit and fresh for his team's latest push for a long-awaited Premier League title. He's remarkably consistent for the Gunners, and creating goals for his team should be easier with Viktor Gyokeres - rather than, say, a defensive midfielder like Mikel Merino - spearheading the frontline.

Nesci: Declan Rice. It's not uncommon for a player to take home the PFA honor without winning the league title - Salah did exactly that just a few years ago - but being part of a championship-winning side obviously strengthens your case. While Saka is Arsenal's best player, Rice is the engine that powers Arteta's team. He should also have more freedom this season with Martin Zubimendi pulling the strings alongside him.

Golden Boot winner

Rouse: Mohamed Salah. Manchester City could share the goals more evenly this campaign, likely reducing Erling Haaland's output, while Alexander Isak is unhappy at Newcastle. And in the Premier League era, only Haaland and Kevin Phillips have finished as top scorer in their debut seasons, so can we really expect the same from Gyokeres, Hugo Ekitike, and other newcomers? The service should also improve for Salah after the signings of Kerkez, Florian Wirtz, and Jeremie Frimpong. Even with taking time off for Egypt's Africa Cup of Nations campaign, Salah is well-positioned for another scoring title.

Nesci: Haaland. By his otherworldly standards, scoring 22 league goals last season was a letdown. Expect the insatiable Norwegian to stay healthy this year and come back with a vengeance. Salah's AFCON participation does give Haaland the edge for me.

Best signing

Rouse: Rayan Cherki. Cherki might need time to adjust, but he could already be the most technically gifted player in the league. Manchester City paying just €36 million for the playmaker, who turns 22 on Sunday, is frankly ridiculous.

Nesci: Wirtz. There will be several others who offer better value relative to their price tag, but Wirtz is such an enchanting talent that even his monstrous transfer fee won't hold him back. The 22-year-old German is one of the few players who can justify the potential €150 million that Liverpool dropped to acquire him from Bayer Leverkusen.

Worst signing

Rouse: Armando Broja. Although there will be more expensive flops this season, how have Burnley not gotten the hint that Broja, who'll represent his fifth Premier League club in the last five years, isn't up to standard? The 23-year-old cost around £15 million to sign from Chelsea.

Nesci: Jamie Gittens. This has little to do with Gittens himself and speaks more to Chelsea's hoarding. There will be worse newcomers than the 21-year-old this campaign, but the Blues could end up paying £52 million for a raw player who needs top-level minutes to develop. Can Chelsea offer Gittens that? He'll battle with Pedro Neto and Estevao on the wing. Joao Pedro can also occupy that spot. Chelsea are still chasing Alejandro Garnacho and Xavi Simons, too. Having already gone through the stockpiling phase, this summer was the time to make moves that would push the team to the next level.

First manager sacked

Rouse: Graham Potter. A rotten start to his West Ham United tenure has already lost him a lot of support among the club's fans. The summer exodus of many experienced and well-respected players from the club has only compounded that early unrest. The Irons could be in relegation trouble.

Nesci: Nuno Espirito Santo. After the incredible highs of last season, it's not hard to envision a scenario where Nottingham Forest get off to a slow start, especially with the added strain of balancing their Europa League commitments with the demands of the Premier League. Evangelos Marinakis is one of the most volatile owners in the game, and he's already clashed very publicly with Nuno before. The ingredients are all there.

Breakout star

Rouse: It's easy to forget about Oscar Bobb, a skillful and composed attacker with an exceptionally high ceiling. The 22-year-old Norwegian seemed set for an important role at Manchester City before he broke his leg on the eve of last season. He could be set for a big campaign this time around.

Nesci: Estevao already looks like a phenom, and I'm hopeful that 16-year-old preseason standout Rio Ngumoha will get some opportunities at Liverpool this year. Still, Charalampos Kostoulas is my pick here. Given their track record with talent identification, any time Brighton decide to spend €35 million on a largely unknown teenager, we should all take notice. The 18-year-old Greek forward could be the next great success story of the club's scouting network.

Biggest surprise

Rouse: David Moyes expressed his irritation at Everton's failure to get deals over the line earlier in the summer, but the Scot's return last January and the new stadium have lifted the club's mood. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall could be a low-key great signing.

Nesci: Liverpool's slow start. Arne Slot's reigning champions are better on paper than last year, but preseason has exposed some vulnerabilities, particularly on the counterattack. Crystal Palace took full advantage of Liverpool's high full-backs and exploited big open spaces in midfield during the Community Shield. We shouldn't read too much into preseason results, but Slot has work to do to find the right balance of attacking verve and defensive solidity.

Most excited about ...

Rouse: With a stronger promoted trio last season, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur would've been in danger of relegation. How they respond will be fascinating. United have doubled down on Ruben Amorim, bankrolling a whole new strikeforce for the oft-gloomy boss. Meanwhile, Spurs are entering a new era with the highly rated Thomas Frank.

Nesci: Giant strikers being back in fashion. This has been a theme for a couple of seasons now, with the likes of Haaland, Chris Wood, and Jean-Philippe Mateta thriving. Fellow big boys Benjamin Sesko, Thierno Barry, and Gyokeres have now joined the party. Diminutive, tricky forwards are brilliant to watch, but there's something fun about the shift back toward imposing No. 9s leading the line. Just chuck it into the mixer, lads.

Leave your own predictions in the comments below!