EPL 2022-23: Best bets to win it all

The 2022-23 EPL campaign begins in just a couple of days. Let's take a look at where the value lies for league winners in what promises to be an enticing and action-packed season.

Manchester City (-175)

Manchester City are heading into the 2022-23 campaign as healthy favorites to win it all, and rightfully so. The club has claimed four of the last five Premier League titles, including the last two.

While Liverpool are seemingly always nipping at their heels, there is reason to believe the Reds will find themselves one step behind once again.

Last year City generated more expected goals than anybody, allowed fewer expected goals than anybody, and led the EPL in expected points by more than five - their process was in a class of its own.

Then the Sky Blues went out and added an elite finishing striker - arguably the only thing they were missing - in Erling Haaland and a stout midfielder in Kalvin Phillips.

Although there were some notable departures as well - Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus being the biggest - City remain stacked from top to bottom and are better equipped to clinically finish the abundance of chances they create on a routine basis.

If City can stay remotely healthy, they'll have a fantastic chance to claim their fifth title in six years.

Chelsea (+1600)

Chelsea finished 19 points from the top of the table a year ago - a big gap to try and close, but hardly impossible.

The Blues were a very good defensive side in 2021-22. Their defensive process (0.92 xGA per game) was not far off from Liverpool (0.86 xGA), and their title push lasted until the final day of the campaign.

Where Chelsea really lagged behind the big dogs was on the offensive side of the ball. Enter Raheem Sterling.

Sterling is one of the more dynamic players in the EPL. He can take the top off of defenses in open play and beat opponents one-on-one with his shiftiness and quick twitch movements.

The speedy forward is also dangerous as a shooter and a creator. Sterling combined for 0.87 expected goals + assists per 90 minutes of play a season ago, which was one of the highest outputs in the league and significantly more than what Chelsea got from Romelu Lukaku (0.55 per 90).

Sterling is a much better scheme fit than Lukaku and should benefit greatly from being the main facilitator on this roster.

With a very strong backline, an improved offense with Sterling in the fold, and one of the sport's best managers in Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea have the pieces necessary to make it a three-horse race up top.

Brentford (+75000)

Brentford are obviously an extreme long shot to even sniff a top-four spot, let alone win the league. But value is value, and this price is a little out of whack.

The Bees are an above-average team with and without the ball, ranking eighth in expected goal generation last season - ahead of sides like Aston Villa, West Ham, and Manchester United. They don't generate a ton of shots, but the ones they take are often high quality.

Brentford also ranked eighth in expected goals conceded, again finishing ahead of notables like West Ham and United.

If not for some poor luck at both ends of the pitch - they scored 4.89 goals fewer than expected and allowed 6.50 more than expected - the club would have looked a lot more potent.

Now, Brentford are obviously not loaded with high-end name-brand players - there's a reason they underperformed with and without the ball - but they did make a couple transfers to improve their talent. Their most notable arrivals, 21-year-old winger Keane Lewis-Potter and 20-year-old fullback Aaron Hickey, cost nearly $40 million.

Brentford are a side that has historically fared extremely well on the transfer market, so it's notable when they spend. They wouldn't make those kinds of commitments if they didn't believe the pair would provide real value now and in the future.

That's not to say those two will immediately step in and play crucial roles, but they could perhaps help the Bees turn their strong potential into more promising results.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.