Williamson: Helping the Falcons identify the Patriots' biggest weakness
Matt Williamson is a former scout for the Cleveland Browns, and spent the last 10 years at ESPN as a scout and co-host of "The Football Today Podcast."
New England is a great team that deserves to be where it's at, but it's certainly not perfect, and has one major weakness the Falcons are sure to exploit. The same is true for Atlanta, and we explored that earlier in the week, but now we'll take a look at the area New England should be most concerned about.
Biggest weakness for Falcons to exploit: Pass rush
The Patriots' defense could be the most difficult matchup Matt Ryan and Kyle Shanahan have faced in this historic run of elite offensive play, and New England matches up extremely well with the Falcons.
We should see a lot of Logan Ryan with plenty of safety help on Julio Jones. Malcolm Butler would then have a big one-on-one advantage over Muhammad Sanu, with the Patriots playing a lot of man coverage. Because New England’s huge defensive tackles are so dominant in the interior of the line of scrimmage, and their defensive ends are so effective containing the edge, and Dont'a Hightower is such a potent downhill player, the Patriots often feel so comfortable with their run defense that they play their big nickel package with three safeties against the opponent's base personnel. They then bring a third cornerback onto the field in their dime defense when the offense uses a third wide receiver.
Expect this to be the case Sunday, with Patrick Chung often drawing the assignment of covering the Falcons' running backs in the passing game. Usually this is an area where Atlanta has an advantage, but if the Falcons can't run the Patriots out of these preferred defensive personnel groupings, their usual advantages with one-on-one matchups in their passing attack won't be nearly as glaring as usual.
If the Patriots can contain Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the running game with their big nickel defense while Atlanta has just two wide receivers on the field, that's a huge advantage. However, if New England’s great weakness, their pass rush, can't step up against Ryan, who's sure to be named the NFL's Most Valuable Player, then this advantage created with personnel groupings could be all for nothing.
Ryan's numbers this year are amazing, and clearly he's much improved in his second season in Shanahan's offense. And when he hasn't had to face pressure, his production was almost silly this year. The Patriots absolutely cannot allow Ryan time in the pocket snap after snap, as he has shown he'll dismantle any defense under such circumstances.
There's a wrinkle here, though. Not only does the Patriots' defense thrive in the red zone, and is great in denying the big play, but it also rushed just three players after the quarterback a far greater percent of the time than any other defense this year.
It's as though Bill Belichick concedes that his defense isn't made up of top pass-rushers, so, instead, he rushes just three and drops an extra body into coverage. This is a tactic many quarterbacks dislike more than dealing with blitzes, as finding out what that "extra body" is up to in coverage can be difficult to decipher. Plus, this tactic also should force the Falcons to sustain long drives, and cut down on their after-the-catch production - an area where they've excelled. On top of that, New England has an excellent tackling defense.
Still, Ryan's 9.26 average yards per pass attempt is one of the more mind-blowing statistics of 2016, and says a lot about this passing game as a whole.
If New England were to get to Ryan, how might they do it? The Falcons have a very good offensive line, but Alex Mack reportedly has a concerning ankle injury. Meanwhile, right guard Chris Chester has been the clear weakest link of this starting five all year.
Malcolm Brown and Alan Branch's best attribute is their ability to control the line of scrimmage in the run game, but maybe they can get a little more interior push than usual, especially if Mack's ankle really limits him.
The wild card here, though, is second-year player Trey Flowers, New England's best individual pass-rusher. Especially on throwing downs, expect the Patriots to align Flowers, a defensive end by trade, on the interior - much in the way Seattle uses Michael Bennett - to try to get a mismatch in their favor and create some havoc in the A and B gaps.
Will New England dial up more blitzes than usual? Hightower is an excellent blitzing linebacker. Or, will they go with their tactic of rushing just three? None of us should attempt to predict what Belichick would do, and of course New England will mix and match. Still, while they have a lot of aspects on this side of the ball to their liking compared to past Atlanta foes, if they don't pressure Ryan, it could be a very long Sunday for the Patriots.