Williamson: Helping the Patriots identify the Falcons' biggest weakness

Matt Williamson is a former scout for the Cleveland Browns, and spent the last 10 years at ESPN as a scout and co-host of "The Football Today Podcast."

Atlanta is a great team that deserves to be where it's at, but it's certainly not perfect, and has one major weakness that the Patriots are sure to exploit this Sunday. The same is true for New England, and we'll explore that later in the week, but for now, what's the area the Falcons should be most concerned about?

Biggest weakness for Patriots to exploit: Run defense

Atlanta has improved a great deal on defense from early in the season. Since they're playing so many young, but talented, players, it makes perfect sense that the unit overall is on the rise as they collectively gain experience.

Originally based off the Seahawks' Cover 3 model, with a ton of zone coverage, the Falcons' defense has evolved into playing much more man coverage, as we saw against Green Bay in the NFC Championship. Also, Atlanta, which was among the least blitz-happy defenses in the NFL during the regular season, dialed up quite a bit against Aaron Rodgers with much success. Are they evolving in that area as well?

The Falcons' run defense, on the other hand, could be in for a very long and painful day against New England. In terms of roster building, Atlanta stresses speed over size on defense. This is a very athletic young group, which makes sense when considering the Falcons play in a dome, and that their offense is an elite unit. The Peyton Manning-led Colts were similar in this regard.

But even up front, they can be overpowered at the point of attack with no-nonsense, straight-ahead run plays and power blocking schemes. Atlanta's defensive line uses a lot of stunting and designed movement because its more quick and athletic than it is unmovable.

In the playoffs, the Falcons held Green Bay to just 99 yards on the ground. But that was on just 17 carries, and not only do the Packers lack a pure power runner, but they also found themselves quickly down on the scoreboard. Rodgers threw the ball 45 times in that contest against just a dozen rushes from Packers running backs.

The week before, the Seahawks ran for just 2 more yards than Green Bay did against the Falcons on just four more carries, but six of those runs were by Russell Wilson and, again, the game script dictated that Seattle throw the ball far more than using designed running back carries. Not to mention, Seattle has one of the league's worst offensive lines. New England is far better up front.

Atlanta's run defense was far more troubling during the regular season. Sure, this unit might be improved, and they do get a lot of tacklers to the ball, but we can't overlook the Falcons being gashed on the ground for 4.5 yards per carry. Only the Dolphins, 49ers, Colts, Bills and Browns were worse. And think about it, defenses with ailing offenses like San Francisco's and Cleveland's faced run after run as they spent much more time on the field and didn't have anything resembling the league's best offense to bail them out. Only four defenses - Pittsburgh, New England, Tennessee, and Dallas - faced fewer rushing attempts than the Falcons, and all four of those teams were much better against the run in the regular season than Atlanta. At this point in the NFL calendar year, it's easy to forget about the regular season, but this team hasn't changed that much after just two playoff wins.

Bill Belichick will likely not only try to overpower the lighter Falcons' defense, but he'll also surely use the running game and a slower tempo to keep Matt Ryan and company sidelined as Tom Brady orchestrates the offense. And if fatigue becomes an issue late in the game, Brady will go hurry-up and attack with a faster tempo, using Dion Lewis and James White as the primary backs. The Falcons also gave up a ton of production to opposing running backs in the passing game.

Early in the game, though, unless the Patriots find themselves down heavy on the scoreboard, we should expect a large dose of LeGarrette Blount with a fullback and heavier personnel overall. Youngsters like Deion Jones, De'Vondre Campbell, and Keanu Neal - all rookies - are going to have to hold their water, show great discipline, and take on bigger downhill blockers with authority on the biggest stage. Expect the Patriots to mix in some plays designed to prey on these players over pursuit and aggression. Also, the Falcons were especially terrible defending the run to the offense’s right side. So we could see Marcus Cannon and Shaq Mason, the Patriots' best run blocker, paving the way in the Super Bowl.

Again, Atlanta's pass defense has been playing better overall, but still, only four defenses allowed more passing yards and passing touchdowns than them during the regular season. So even if the more physical pounding game plan centered around Blount against a poor run defense isn't successful, Brady should flourish.