So Hot Right Now: It's Time to Trust Robin Lehner
Streaks - hot and cold - exist in every sport.
No matter how great the good times may seem, all streaks come to an end. And it's critical for fantasy owners to reap as much of the success as possible before inevitably being burned.
Here's a look at one of the hottest players in the NHL right now, and how long fantasy owners in DFS and season-long leagues can expect it to last:
G Robin Lehner, Sabres
Lehner's most recent five-game stretch has been nothing short of spectacular. Here it is in chronological order:
| Result | GA | SA | SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| L | 2 | 35 | 33 |
| L | 2 | 44 | 42 |
| W | 2 | 36 | 34 |
| W | 2 | 35 | 33 |
| OTL | 2 | 38 | 36 |
That's a save percentage of .947 for Lehner over that brief stretch. It's clearly due for some regression - Philadelphia Flyers G Michal Neuvirth leads the NHL at .933 through 21 games played.
Lehner has shown flashes before while a backup with the Ottawa Senators - he won the Jack Butterfield Trophy as AHL playoff MVP in 2010-11 - but he was never able to maintain the success and move ahead of Craig Anderson on the depth chart. Lehner recorded three shutouts during that playoff run, leading the Binghamton Senators to the Calder Cup.
The potential is there for the former second-round pick. His career save percentage sits at .916, though it's paired with an unflattering 2.83 goals-against average. As has been the case for much of Lehner's career, he's the last line of defense for a team with porous first lines.
The Sabres are a bottom-10 possession team this season, with a Corsi For rating of 47.8%. They allow 30.8 shots per game, but that average has been steadily rising.
Buffalo's defensive struggles can be Lehner's gain. The volume of shots he's certain to face will allow him to pile up points for saves in daily fantasy scoring, and will lead to a high save percentage for season-long leagues. The biggest factor working against Lehner: his difficulty earning the win on a Sabres team that is equally poor at scoring goals as preventing them.
Even during Lehner's excellent stretch, he's gone just 2-2-1. The Sabres have scored just nine times in that time. Luckily for Lehner, and for prospective owners, only two of Buffalo's next seven opponents currently hold playoff spots. Both games - and four of the seven overall - will be played in Buffalo.
Owners in both daily fantasy and season-long leagues need to reap the rewards of Lehner's success for as long as they last. His low win probability has him best suited for daily GPPs, but owners in head-to-head leagues can easily fade the category while focusing on his strong save percentage and goals against average.