DFS: Finding Value on the Blue Line
The quality of a defenseman is not dictated by how he lights up a stat sheet - unless you're talking fantasy.
With DFS, how do you go about rounding out your lineup? Guessing at defense might work once or twice, but you wouldn't be maximizing your opportunities for success. Oh, but where to look?
Power-Play Production
Check lineups every time you play. Who do the coaches have playing on the power-play? While every hockey fan knows Erik Karlsson, take a look at the other names in the top five of power-play points last season among D-men:
| Name | Total Points | Power-Play Points |
|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson (OTT) | 66 | 30 |
| Mark Streit (PHI) | 52 | 30 |
| Keith Yandle (NYR) | 52 | 29 |
| Andrei Markov (MTL) | 50 | 25 |
| Kevin Shattenkirk (STL) | 44 | 25 |
The most intriguing is Shattenkirk. The other four each played over 80 games while Shattenkirk only played 56. Injuries stalled him a bit, but he is poised to be a big member of the Blues' power-play and should be in DFS lineups until his cost becomes too unwieldy.
Plus-Minus and Blocked Shots
Blocked shots will be covered separately, but depending on where you play DFS, plus-minus could impact your lineups.
If plus-minus carries a bonus, there are certain names to target. It's a pretty simple formula. If a team has a bad goaltender, and thus gives up a bunch of goals, the plus-minus is going to be abysmal.
The Oilers allowed more goals than anybody in 2014-15. It comes as no surprise that six of their defensemen had a minus-12 or worse. Meanwhile, the best plus-minus players come from teams with positive goal differentials.
| Player | 2014-15 Team | +/- | Team Goal Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Garrison | Tampa Bay | 27 | +51 |
| Niklas Hjalmarsson | Chicago | 25 | +40 |
| Hampus Lindholm | Anaheim | 25 | +10 |
| Kevin Klein | New York Rangers | 24 | +60 |
| Ryan McDonagh | New York Rangers | 23 | +60 |
Some sites also give a bonus for shorthanded points, but they are so infrequent (no defenseman had more than three last season) that they are foolish to try and predict. If you're insistent, monitor consistent penalty killing lineups and you stand a better chance.
Shots on Goal
The defensemen who shoot the most tend to score the most:
| Name | Goals | Shots on Goal |
|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson (OTT) | 21 | 292 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI) | 23 | 264 |
| Brent Burns (SJ) | 17 | 245 |
| Justin Faulk (CAR) | 15 | 238 |
| Shea Weber (NSH) | 15 | 237 |
If the site you frequent carries a SOG bonus, it gives these players even more value. Karlsson will cost a pretty penny because he does pretty much everything. But, follow shooting trends and when you see a lower or mid-tier player like Johnny Boychuk or Jake Muzzin taking a ton of rips on net, you might be able to spread the scoring around your blueline.
Finding the Right Pairs
Maximize points by picking a defensive pairing likely to be on the ice when points are scored (doubly good if plus-minus is counted). While selecting Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook or Andrei Markov and P.K. Subban will carry a high price, you might be able to target a mid-range pair at a discount.
Keep an eye on prices as the season starts while monitoring lines and ice time to see who is gelling early.
The pairing who consistently notched the most time on ice were Nashville's Roman Josi and Shea Weber, though it's unlikely they will come cheap. Maybe choose Winnipeg's Tobias Enstrom and Tyler Myers as they won't carry nearly as lofty a price as some others.