UFC 188 Staff Predictions: Can Werdum pull off the upset over Velasquez?
Prior to every UFC event, theScore's Kyle Smith, Paul Gazzola, and Ali Dar give their predictions on all the main-card fights.
UFC 188 Coverage
Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum
Kyle Smith: Quite possibly the best BJJ practitioner in the heavyweight division, Fabricio Werdum is a grappling wizard with improving stand-up and face-mangling power. That said, he's going to be slowly, and violently, fed through the wood chipper against Cain Velasquez. Velasquez is a terrifying, single-minded Terminator, grinding his opponents down into a fine dust with excellent wrestling, a power-clinch game, and vicious ground-and-pound. Sure, Werdum is dangerous off his back, but Velasquez is going to render him unconscious with an unrelenting torrent of fists and elbows. Pick: Velasquez
Ali Dar: Many see Werdum as a real threat to Velasquez's heavyweight throne. Pointing to his world class jiu-jitsu, the belief is that Velasquez will be overmatched on the ground. To that I say, so what? We need to remember that the champ had real difficulties taking down Junior dos Santos and adjusted his game plan mid-fight. He took JDS to the cage and used his dirty boxing, knees, and elbows to wear down his opponent. If Velasquez doesn't feel comfortable on the ground and doesn't like how the fight is going standing up, expect him to use the clinch, the cage, and his cardio to crumble Werdum's defense over the course of five rounds. Pick: Velasquez
Gazzola: We’ve witnessed Cain Velasquez dismantle the best heavyweight opponents the UFC can offer. Velasquez’s smooth striking, masterful wrestling, and supreme conditioning have only failed him once in his career, debilitating every opponent he’s ever met (including Junior dos Santos, his only loss). Werdum, even with his ability to string unpredictable combinations, grapple with control, and remain active on the mat, still doesn’t know what he’s in for against the human anvil that is Cain. Velasquez will restore his status as the undisputed king of the heavyweight division. Pick: Velasquez
Gilbert Melendez vs. Eddie Alvarez
Gazzola: “Unfinished Business” is an apposite narrative for this slug fest. The storyline spans five years, all the way to 2010 when both lightweights were destroying combatants in their rightful promotions, causing them to seek deserving ones. They never got the opportunity to brawl then, so one can now expect this one to be bloody, violent, and energetic. Both fighters are well-rounded, but Melendez receives the edge because of his reckless abandon, strong chin, and punishing right hook that he delivers in the pocket generously. Pick: Melendez
Dar: Alvarez would love nothing more than to keep this fight standing to utilize his excellent boxing. In his last fight against Donald Cerrone, he had a lot of trouble with Cerrone's height and reach advantage, but fighting the shorter Melendez should make things easier for him. Melendez needs to respect Alvarez's boxing, but he shouldn't fear it. Constant pressure and the threat of the takedown leaves Alvarez open for counters and this is where Melendez can take advantage. This fight is close, but as long as Melendez doesn't let Alvarez get off first, he should be able to control the fight. Pick: Melendez
Smith: A matchup years in the making, Alvarez-Melendez could easily devolve into a wonderfully violent game of live-action Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots. Alvarez is a slick, powerful, high-level boxer who pieces together crisp combinations on the feet. Melendez isn't one to shrink away from a proper slobberknocker, though he should try and use his wrestling to ground Alvarez and batter him with punches and elbows from on top. Pick: Melendez
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Nate Marquardt
Dar: Kelvin Gastelum possesses championship-level skills but his discipline towards his craft leaves a lot to be desired. Though he's moving up to middleweight due to missing weight one too many times, he shouldn't have trouble winning this fight. Marquardt was a great fighter, but the toll of his battles are finally catching up to him. His chin is gone and he's looked lethargic in his last few fights. Gastelum can finish the fight on the ground or on the feet, it's just up to him where it happens. Pick: Gastelum
Smith: If we were still living in the carefree days of 2005-2009, choosing Nate Marquardt to hilariously dismantle an opponent with a videogame-like combo wouldn't be too far-fetched. Unfortunately nicknamed "The Great," it's the year 2015 and the younger, stronger, less shopworn Gastelum is likely gonna eat his lunch. Look for Gastelum to pour on the pressure and find Marquardt's creaky chin at some point during the first 10 minutes. Pick: Gastelum
Gazzola: Southpaw Gastelum has the speed and tools to take this fight. With jolting footwork, he controls the Octagon, can bang with his right jab, and unload with his left upon openings. He’s a great scrambler, and his conditioning is superior to that of Marquardt’s. Submission guru Marquardt is still dangerous, on the ground and standing up, but warrants suspicion based on his dimming age and limiting stamina. He couldn’t muster a threatening assault in his final round against Brad Tavares at UFC 182, so if Gastelum decides to drag this one out, it could be to his advantage, barring he doesn’t end it early. Pick: Gastelum
Yair Rodriguez vs. Charles Rosa
Gazzola: This fight is difficult to determine, but Charles Rosa has the slight advantage due to his experience. Rodriquez, however, is an ambivalent fighter, known for blending tae kwon do with sweeps and complementing it on the ground with erratic positional movement. Rosa has fury mapped into his biological complexion, as his submission expertise has rewarded him with every victory he has collected. Although all signs point to Charles “Boston Strong” Rosa taking the fight, I see Rodriquez shocking Rosa first, and subsequently the crowd, with a win. Pick: Rodriguez
Dar: Rodriguez may be an intriguing prospect at only 22 years old, but he's going up against a potential future contender in Rosa. The American's aggression and experience will give Rodriguez a lot of trouble to utilize his tae kwon do background. If Rosa gets it to the ground, he'll have the upper hand and it'll be a matter of time before he locks up a submission victory. As long as Rosa applies pressure, he shouldn't have trouble getting by Rodriguez. Pick: Rosa
Smith: The 22-year-old Rodriguez is an excellent prospect, with boatloads of potential and an array of weapons at his disposal on the feet. Unfortunately, Rosa may be a little too much, too fast for the young Mexican. A product of the vaunted American Top Team, Rosa, is skilled on the feet, but will likely try to drag Rodriguez to the floor where he'll look to wear his opponent down and finish it with a slick submission. Pick: Rosa
Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill
Dar: This fight is a lot closer than the odds tell. Torres is an excellent striker with great speed and athleticism, but she's going up against the hard-hitting Hill. Torres will need to use her kicks to keep a safe distance and try to out point a victory. Hill will want to get close and stay there to use her Muay Thai. If she can land, Torres could find herself in a world of trouble. While Hill is a tough opponent for Torres, the "Tiny Tornado" should be able to safely get herself a decision victory as long as she remains aware of Hill's power. Pick: Torres
Smith: Although Torres has some solid tools on the feet, it'll be in her best interest to try and transform this bout into a wrestling match where she'll enjoy a distinct advantage over Hill. Sure, Hill can employ her vicious Muay Thai skills to carve Torres up in the clinch, but the more likely scenario has Torres using her wrestling to outpoint Hill over three rounds in order to pick up a decision victory. Pick: Torres
Gazzola: The two former Ultimate Fighting 20 strawweights have the chance to show Dana White the potency of the weight class. Torres can grind out matches, evident in each of her five professional victories, while “Overkill” Hill has finishing ability in her arsenal, seen last when she knocked out Stephanie Skinner by knees. This one most likely goes the distance, however, with Torres squeezing out yet another decision win. Pick: Torres