5 Bold AL Fantasy Predictions
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National League | American League
Rougned Odor won't finish as a top-100 fantasy player
Odor's poor batter's eye is alarming. Last season he swung at 41.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone - the sixth-highest rate in the majors. Hitters can still be productive in an aggressive manner, but what's concerning is that he only swung at 71.3 percent of pitches inside the strike zone - the 38th- highest rate.
His poor eye was a major reason he slashed .178/.231/.356 in the final 20 games of the regular season. Odor's power as a middle infielder makes him a tempting pick at his ADP of 44, per FantasyPros, but a poor start could ruin his entire season.
The Rangers have Jurickson Profar to turn to if Odor continues swinging at pitches in the other batter's box. Profar, baseball's former top prospect, is still just 24 and is coming off a performance in the World Baseball Classic in which he hit .464/.516/.750 in seven games for the Netherlands.
Nick Castellanos will record 100 RBIs
Castellanos hit 18 homers, 25 doubles and drove in 58 runs last season, but missed 52 games due to injury.
Castellanos has plenty of power, but he still doesn't sell out for the home run. His 25.6 line drive percentage would have been the 10th-highest in baseball had he had enough plate appearances to qualify. When you factor in his ability to spray the ball to all fields, this plays very well at the spacious outfield of Comerica Park.
Some may knock Castellanos for his aggressiveness at the plate. He certainly won't be winning any OBP titles anytime soon, but it makes him a dangerous run producer. His 11.5 soft contact rate would have been the fifth-lowest in the majors had he qualified.
Gary Sanchez will hit below .240
Sanchez was a one-man wrecking crew upon his August call up last season, hitting .389/.458/.832 with 11 homers, nine doubles and 21 RBIs in the month.
September and October weren't as friendly to Sanchez. He still hit nine homers and drove in 21, but he only hit .225/.314/.520.
He began to struggle down the stretch because team's started to realize he couldn't hit change ups. He hit just .154 off them during that final month and .225 overall. He started seeing a heavy dose of this offspeed offering and it had an affect on his ability to hit the fastball, too.
Sanchez should still be able to knock out 30 homers, but if his average craters below .240, he surely won't return value to his ADP of 55.
James Paxton will post a sub-3.00 ERA
Paxton throws gas. Among starting pitchers, only Noah Syndergaard had a higher average velocity on his heater in 2016.
Not only does Paxton throw cheddar, but he can harness it, too. He only walked 24 batters in 121 innings last year. His 4.88 K/BB ratio would have been the sixth-best in baseball had he pitched enough innings to qualify.
Paxton's ERA was a modest 3.79, but his FIP was 2.80. An improved Seattle defense should help bring his ERA closer to his FIP on his way to a breakout season.
Marcus Stroman will win 20 games
Stroman won only nine games in 2016, so 20 would be quite the improvement.
He had a bad stretch in the middle of the season where he was knocked around. He made some adjustments by simplifying his delivery and throwing more sliders (his best offspeed pitch). Once he began doing this, he started racking up Ks.
Stroman was slightly unlucky last year. His ERA was 4.37 but his FIP was 3.71. He also failed to receive above average run support, despite being backed by a prolific offense.
As one of the game's best ground ball pitchers (he led the majors in GB%) Stroman should be able to work deep into ball games with a great infield defense behind him. Twenty wins is possible considering teammate J.A. Happ accomplished the feat last season.
(Photos courtesy Action Images)