Fly like an Eagle: 3 reasons why Nurmagomedov will win at UFC 209
Twenty-four men have tried to get the better of Khabib Nurmagomedov. Twenty-four men have failed.
When Nurmagomedov faces Tony Ferguson in the co-main event of UFC 209 in Las Vegas on Saturday, a win won't just preserve his undefeated record and earn him an interim lightweight title; it may just establish him as the king at 155 pounds, whether or not he ever faces undisputed champion Conor McGregor.
Outside of a close call against Gleison Tibau, Nurmagomedov's five-year run in the Octagon has been nothing short of dominant. He'll need to be at his absolute best to overcome Ferguson, and here are the three aspects of Nurmagomedov's game that will be key to earning victory No. 25.
Master of Sambo
Much like how Demian Maia's Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt doesn't fully describe his outright superiority in the discipline, Nurmagomedov's Master of Sports title doesn't convey how much better he is than anyone at integrating his Sambo expertise into MMA.
Ferguson is an accomplished grappler in his own right, having won a wrestling title in the National Collegiate Wrestling Association. However, if he thinks his skills are on the same level as Nurmagomedov's, he'll be in for a rude awakening.
There is simply no way for anyone to prepare for Nurmagomedov's unique combination of Sambo and traditional wrestling techniques, which makes him arguably the most effective pound-for-pound grappler in the sport. He's proven that time and time again with an extensive vocabulary of trips and takedowns, along with his suffocating top control.
Ferguson's gift for scrambling out of trouble won't save him against Nurmagomedov.
Relentless Russian
Nurmagomedov makes it look easy inside the cage while manhandling his opponents. What's often missed is the work that goes into his fight-changing takedowns.
Even if you successfully manage to defend his initial attempts, Nurmagomedov will go through a dozen nearly imperceptible adjustments of his grip, base, and balance to drag you to the mat. Constantly shooting for takedowns is tiring, but in Nurmagomedov's fights, it's his opponents who are consistently worn down.
Fortunately for Ferguson, cardio has never been an issue. Unfortunately, he's never faced a hound like Nurmagomedov.
The secret striker
Due to the enormous success he's had with grappling, Nurmagomedov's striking is often unfairly dismissed. This is another area that Ferguson's camp better not overlook unless they want to see their fighter suffer an unceremonious knockout.
As noted by Bloody Elbow's Connor Ruebusch last April, one of Nurmagomedov's best weapons is the uppercut he employs to punish opponents who stay low to defend against the Russian's takedowns.
Nurmagomedov is a fundamentally sound striker, so even when he falls behind on the scorecards - as he did early in his last fight against Michael Johnson - he's not likely to panic and take unnecessary risks. His ability to stick to a game plan will prove invaluable against a master improviser like Ferguson.
Nurmagomedov's wrestling only adds to his stand-up game, as he's able to take risks that other fighters can't because he can always pull off a takedown should he find himself in danger. His primary path to victory will always be his grappling, but he's not going to back down in a firefight should it come to that.
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