Meet the Boogeyman: Why 'El Cucuy' will win the interim 155-pound title

Few matchups better prove the fallacy of MMA math than UFC 209's co-main event.

Tony Ferguson's sole UFC blemish came in the form of a unanimous decision loss to Michael Johnson nearly five years ago, and since Khabib Nurmagomedov most recently treated Johnson to a beating that'll plague him with nightmares for the rest of his days, the casual fan may be inclined to believe Ferguson will suffer the same fate when he and Nurmagomedov meet for the interim lightweight title on Saturday in Las Vegas.

But this is MMA, a smorgasbord of disciplines and potential outcomes that doesn't adhere to such pedestrian logic. Here are three reasons Ferguson will defy expectations and exit the Octagon with his first UFC title:

It's a game of inches

Cue the speech from "Any Given Sunday" ...

Ferguson's long limbs have given all but one of his 13 UFC foes fits - with the exception being Johnson - and the six-inch reach advantage he owns over Nurmagomedov will prove instrumental in where the fight takes place.

The 33-year-old's 76-inch wingspan allows him to tune his opponents up without having to trade from the pocket, an asset he'll be sure to exploit if he plans to elude the Russian's clutches. Expect a more polished striker in Ferguson to get busy from range and disrupt Nurmagomedov's level changes by keeping him at the end of his punches.

The second-ranked contender hasn't won by knockout in over two years, but Nurmagomedov's chin says he could be in for the Ramsey Nijem treatment.

Finding order in disorder

True to the modern paradigm of mixed martial artists, Ferguson poses a threat no matter where the action goes, but what sets him apart is his comfort in chaos.

Call it unwavering confidence in his abilities or pure, unadulterated insanity, but El Cucuy (Spanish for "The Boogeyman") has proven worthy of his moniker on countless occasions, usually by coiling his endless arms around an unsuspecting opponent's neck for one of his patented D'Arce chokes, and almost always in a scramble of his own creation.

There's no way to prepare for that kind of crazy.

As in every outing, Nurmagomedov will look to impose his will and take the fight to the ground - where he's an absolute terror - before long, but he'll find out firsthand Ferguson owns the best sprawl and D'Arce in the division before they make it there.

10th Planet jiu-jitsu

In his last outing, "The Eagle" had to eat a few zingers from Johnson to land a takedown, after which a hellacious beating ensued, but Johnson isn't the grappler Ferguson is.

Between the techniques he's picked up under 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu virtuoso Eddie Bravo and his penchant for throwing elbows from his back, the Michigan product is near impossible to stifle from guard. Johnson's doom was imminent as soon as Nurmagomedov plowed through a flurry to take him to the ground in their November bout, but Ferguson will put every one of his long limbs to work should he be put on his hind parts.

Nurmagomedov won't pound his way to victory as he did with Johnson, though. Instead of raining bombs on Ferguson from top position, he'll be staving off El Cucuy's steady stream of elbows and 10th Planet-styled submission attempts until taking the fight back to the feet seems like a good idea.

It isn't.

Related - Fly like an Eagle: 3 reasons why Nurmagomedov will win at UFC 209