4 stars that should be on your do-not-draft list
Follow theScore's fantasy feed on Twitter (@theScoreFantasy) for the latest news, features and more.
(Average Draft Position courtesy FantasyPros)
SP Yu Darvish, Rangers (39.0 ADP)
Darvish has elite strikeout potential - no starting pitcher has a higher K/9 rate than Darvish's 11.32 mark since he entered the league in 2012. That he has paired a punch-out arsenal with a career 3.29 ERA is a testament to just how dominant he has been for the Rangers.
Yet, at age 30, Darvish's injury history can't be ignored. He missed all of 2015 with a torn UCL and didn't make his 2016 debut until halfway through the season. He also makes half his starts at Globe Life Park, one of the top hitter's stadiums in the majors.
Any slip in velocity or command, or renewed concerns for his battered elbow, have the potential to submarine his fantasy outlook. Don't bother with the risk until after the fifth round, well past his current ADP. You'd be crazy to draft Darvish in the third or fourth rounds, ahead of less-dominant but healthy options like Chris Archer or Justin Verlander.
C Buster Posey, Giants (42.0 ADP)
The Bay Area knows what it takes to be an early adopter. In the tech world, you end up paying a lot more to be first and the product can leave much to be desired. That's the case with Posey, who is soon to be 30 and is coming off one of his weakest seasons in the majors. He's also still the consensus No. 1 catcher off the board in all formats.
The quality of catchers available later in the draft doesn't warrant spending up for the former MVP. Instead of using a fourth or fifth round pick on Posey, a man with nearly 6,000 innings crouching behind the plate, take a shot on a younger catcher with more room for growth. J.T. Realmuto, Tom Murphy or Mike Zunino fit the bill as cheaper options with reasonably high offensive potential.
When it comes down to it, most catchers only play 140 or so games each season to begin with. The advantage held by Posey over others at his position won't last forever, so prioritize other positions before spending up for the Giants' backstop.
RP Aroldis Chapman, Yankees (53.7 ADP)
Chapman has saved between 33 and 38 games in each of his last five seasons, including two seasons with Reds squads that finished with losing records. He has posted elite strikeout numbers and superb ERAs regardless of the quality of the team around him and will have an ironclad grasp on closing duties with the Yankees, despite Dellin Betances' flirtation with the role last year.
Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections expect this year's edition of the Bronx Bombers to finish with 82 wins. Even as the game's most dominant reliever, Chapman will struggle to top 40 saves given the middling team around him. As far as upside goes, devoting a high draft pick on a one-inning reliever on a team not expected to be a powerhouse doesn't really lend itself to growth.
1B Jose Abreu, White Sox (60.0 ADP)
The White Sox lost an above-average table-setter in OF Adam Eaton to acquire pitching prospect Lucas Giolito, so the arsenal surrounding Abreu looks thinner than ever. He still has slugger 3B Todd Frazier hitting behind him in the order, but his 40 HRs were accompanied by a poor .225 BA and .302 OBP. You're going to see Abreu left in scoring position while Frazier strikes out plenty of times in 2017.
Combined with Abreu's own dwindling triple-slash stats, including an ISO that has fallen from .264 in 2014 to just .175 last season, there's little to suggest a return to elite power production. If you miss out on one the elite first basemen early in the draft, it's better to wait for Hanley Ramirez at his pick 82 ADP than Abreu.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)