AL East Primer: Can killer Bs lead Red Sox to another division title?
The Boston Red Sox will attempt to become the first repeat winner in the American League East since the New York Yankees in 2011-12, but as is usually the case in baseball's toughest division, finishing first won't be easy.
The AL East sent three teams to the postseason last year, while the Toronto Blue Jays have reached the American League Championship Series in back-to-back seasons. Toronto's elite pitching staff and loaded offense should have it in the playoff conversation once again alongside reigning co-wild-card winners the Baltimore Orioles. Don't sleep on the young New York Yankees or even the restocked Tampa Bay Rays, either. It's not inconceivable to think that any one of the five teams could find itself atop the standings come October.
As we continue marching toward Opening Day, here's all you need to know about the AL East in theScore's division primer.
Division Primers
AL East I AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
Baltimore Orioles
2016 record: 89-73 (T-2nd)
2017 payroll: $158,602,115
Over/Under win total for 2017: 80.5
Odds to win World Series: 33-1
3-year trend: 2014 (1st); 2015 (3rd); 2016 (T-2nd)
Highest projected WAR: Manny Machado (6.4)
X-factor: Dylan Bundy
Prospect to watch: Chance Sisco (MLB.com: No. 99; Baseball America: No. 57; Baseball Prospectus: No. 76)
Winter report card: C
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hyun Soo Kim | LF |
| 2 | Adam Jones | CF |
| 3 | Manny Machado | 3B |
| 4 | Chris Davis | 1B |
| 5 | Mark Trumbo | DH |
| 6 | Seth Smith | RF |
| 7 | Jonathan Schoop | 2B |
| 8 | Welington Castillo | C |
| 9 | J.J. Hardy | SS |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | RHP | 4.07 |
| Dylan Bundy | RHP | 4.67 |
| Wade Miley | LHP | 4.30 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | RHP | 4.65 |
| Chris Tillman* | RHP | 4.72 |
*Expected to begin season on DL
Orioles win the division if ...
The starting pitching shows much improvement. The Orioles' offense carried an abysmal rotation to a wild-card berth in 2016 and they'll need much of the same this season to make it back to the playoffs. Baltimore returns virtually the same lineup as a year ago, so scoring runs shouldn't be in issue, though preventing them will be. The rotation is even more of a concern with Chris Tillman injured, meaning the Orioles need both Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy to take the next step in their development.
Boston Red Sox
2016 record: 93-69 (1st)
2017 payroll: $190,296,429
Over/Under win total for 2017: 92.5
Odds to win World Series: 9-2
3-year trend: 2014 (5th); 2015 (5th); 2016 (1st)
Highest projected WAR: Mookie Betts (5.6)
X-factor: Eduardo Rodriguez
Prospect to watch: Rafael Devers (MLB.com: 17; Baseball America: 18; Baseball Prospectus: 13)
Winter report card: A
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Pedroia | 2B |
| 2 | Andrew Benintendi | LF |
| 3 | Mookie Betts | RF |
| 4 | Hanley Ramirez | DH |
| 5 | Mitch Moreland | 1B |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts | SS |
| 7 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | CF |
| 8 | Pablo Sandoval | 3B |
| 9 | Sandy Leon | C |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Rick Porcello | RHP | 4.00 |
| Chris Sale | LHP | 3.48 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | LHP | 4.36 |
| Steven Wright | RHP | 4.53 |
| David Price* | LHP | 3.53 |
*Expected to begin season on DL
Red Sox win the division if ...
They limit the trips to the infirmary. Health is the biggest issue standing in the way of a Red Sox repeat. David Price remains without a timetable, Tyler Thornburg and Drew Pomeranz are set to start the season on the disabled list, and Hanley Ramirez's shoulder has yet to allow him to play in a game defensively. Even without David Ortiz, the offense should score a lot of runs thanks to a well-balanced lineup built with power and speed. Craig Kimbrel needs to return to his dominant form to alleviate any concerns about the bullpen, which remains the club's biggest weakness heading into Opening Day.
New York Yankees
2016 record: 84-78 (4th)
2017 payroll: $191,960,000
Over/Under win total for 2017: 82.5
Odds to win World Series: 25-1
3-year trend: 2014 (2nd); 2015 (2nd); 2016 (4th)
Highest projected WAR: Gary Sanchez (3.9)
X-factor: Michael Pineda
Prospect to watch: Gleyber Torres (MLB.com: No. 3; Baseball America: No. 5; Baseball Prospectus: No. 15)
Winter report card: B-
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LF |
| 2 | Jacoby Ellsbury | CF |
| 3 | Gary Sanchez | C |
| 4 | Matt Holliday | DH |
| 5 | Greg Bird | 1B |
| 6 | Starlin Castro | 2B |
| 7 | Chase Headley | 3B |
| 8 | Aaron Judge | RF |
| 9 | Ronald Torreyes | SS |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Masahiro Tanaka | RHP | 3.90 |
| CC Sabathia | LHP | 4.38 |
| Michael Pineda | RHP | 3.51 |
| Luis Severino | RHP | 4.08 |
| Chad Green | RHP | 4.29 |
Yankees win the division if ...
The Baby Bombers carry the load, the starting pitching overachieves, and the bullpen tandem of Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances doesn't burn out. Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird will be leaned on heavily in their sophomore seasons with the hope that veterans Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Headley, and Brett Gardner can ride the wave of the youth movement and bounce back from poor seasons. The Yankees' division hopes hinge completely on the partially torn right elbow ligament of Masahiro Tanaka.
Tampa Bay Rays
2016 record: 68-94 (5th)
2017 payroll: $53,358,334
Over/Under win total for 2017: 77.5
Odds to win World Series: 100-1
3-year trend: 2014 (4th); 2015 (4th); 2016 (5th)
Highest projected WAR: Chris Archer (4.0)
X-factor: Blake Snell
Prospect to watch: Jose De Leon (MLB.com: No. 33; Baseball America: No. 29; Baseball Prospectus: No. 38)
Winter report card: C-
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Kiermaier | CF |
| 2 | Brad Miller | 2B |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | 3B |
| 4 | Corey Dickerson | DH |
| 5 | Matt Duffy | SS |
| 6 | Colby Rasmus | LF |
| 7 | Steven Souza | RF |
| 8 | Logan Morrison | 1B |
| 9 | Derek Norris | C |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Archer | RHP | 3.39 |
| Jake Odorizzi | RHP | 4.09 |
| Alex Cobb | RHP | 3.97 |
| Blake Snell | LHP | 3.67 |
| Matt Andriese | RHP | 3.77 |
Rays win the division if ...
The pitching is elite enough to make up for a mediocre offense. While the Rays remain the worst team in the division on paper, they're certainly no slouch. The rotation, headed by Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi, is as strong as any in the division, while the club should benefit from a return to health from Alex Cobb. Pitching - as always seems to be the case - will have to carry an offense that ranked as one of the league's worst last season. The front office made minor upgrades with the additions of Colby Rasmus, Derek Norris, and Wilson Ramos, though the latter will miss the first several months with injury.
Toronto Blue Jays
2016 record: 89-73 (T-2nd)
2017 payroll: $156,145,238
Over/Under win total for 2017: 84.5
Odds to win World Series: 20-1
3-year trend: 2014 (3rd); 2015 (1st); 2016 (2nd)
Highest projected WAR: Josh Donaldson (6.0)
X-factor: Devon Travis
Prospect to watch: Rowdy Tellez (MLB.com: N/R; Baseball America: No. 95; Baseball Prospectus: N/R)
Winter report card: C
Projected Lineup
| ORDER | PLAYER | POSITION |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devon Travis | 2B |
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | 3B |
| 3 | Jose Bautista | RF |
| 4 | Kendrys Morales | DH |
| 5 | Troy Tulowitzki | SS |
| 6 | Russell Martin | C |
| 7 | Justin Smoak | 1B |
| 8 | Kevin Pillar | CF |
| 9 | Melvin Upton Jr. | LF |
Projected Rotation
| Pitcher | Throws | Projected ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Estrada | RHP | 4.81 |
| J.A. Happ | LHP | 4.25 |
| Marcus Stroman | RHP | 3.73 |
| Francisco Liriano | LHP | 4.00 |
| Aaron Sanchez | RHP | 4.04 |
Blue Jays win the division if ...
The rotation continues its remarkable run of health. The Blue Jays used just seven different starters in 2016, with five pitchers making at least 29 starts. With little depth behind them, the club needs its five most solid arms to take their turn every fifth day. Jose Bautista also needs to return to being six-time All-Star Jose Bautista. While Kendrys Morales should help supplement some of the loss of Edwin Encarnacion, keeping the offense elite requires Bautista's return to form.
Photos courtesy: Action Images
Salary projections courtesy: Cots Baseball Contracts
Projected WAR, ERA courtesy: Fangraphs
Odds courtesy: Bovada