40 Fantasy Facts - AL Central Edition

Follow theScore's fantasy feed on Twitter (@theScoreFantasy) for the latest news, features, and more.

Looking for an edge in your fantasy baseball drafts? Here are 40 facts from the 2016 season involving players from the American League Central:

Chicago White Sox

(Photo courtesy: Action Images)

• Look for even bigger things from 3B Todd Frazier in his second year in the Windy City. Despite slugging a career-best 40 homers, Frazier scuffled to a .225 batting average thanks to a combination of batted ball misfortune (.236 BABIP) a sky-high Soft% (20.7) and a rock-bottom LD% (15.7), none of which are likely to plague him to this extent in 2017.

• Jose Abreu remains one of the top offensive first basemen in the game, but if you're seeking 30+ homers, you might want to look elsewhere. Abreu has seen his ISO plummet from .262 as a rookie in 2014 to .212 in 2015 down to .175 last season. While the BA and RBI totals should remain elite, you're probably drafting him as a 25-HR option at best.

• OF Melky Cabrera isn't going to blow you away with his fantasy production, but he's almost certainly going to return nice value relative to his draft slot. Cabrera saw a slight uptick in HRs and RBIs last season while boasting an elevated BB rate (7.3%) and a lower K rate (10.7%). If he can hold those gains, another .290/14/80 season is possible.

• On one hand, you have to be excited about SS Tim Anderson's steals potential; he had 10 swipes in 12 attempts as a rookie. But with just 13 walks in 431 plate appearances, any dip in BA could spell doom for those who draft him looking for 20+ SBs. Let someone else take a chance on Anderson, and seek out a speedster with a better OBP.

• Dynasty owners will be keeping a close eye on 3B/DH Yoan Moncada, who will likely open the season in the minors. Moncada is considered one of the top hitting prospects in baseball, but will need to make much better contact than he did in 196 at-bats last season, when he posted a dismal CT% of 59; everything else screams future fantasy All-Star.

• LHP Jose Quintana might be on the move, but if we assume he remains with the White Sox, fantasy owners know exactly what they're getting. Quintana has posted an ERA between 3.20 and 3.51 in four straight years while recording 200-208 innings and 164-181 Ks every year during that span. Draft him expecting all three totals to fall within range.

• What a difference a year made for LHP Carlos Rodon, who sliced his BB/9 from 4.6 as a rookie to 2.9 in Year 2. And while that didn't help his ERA any - it rose nearly three-tenths of a point - it bodes well for his future prognosis. Combined with a slight uptick in K/9, Rodon should be on your radar as a high-risk, high-upside depth starter.

• You might want to consider fading closer David Robertson. Not only are the White Sox expected to sit near the bottom of the American League standings - limiting Robertson's save opportunities - but the 32-year-old is coming off a trying season in which he posted a troubling 4.6 BB/9 rate while seeing his K/9 rate dip for a second straight year. Avoid.

Cleveland Indians

(Photo courtesy: Action Images)

• Have we already seen the best SS Francisco Lindor has to offer? Possibly. His HR/FB ratio through his first two major-league seasons (11.1%) exceeds anything he has done in the minors; either he has developed more of a home-run swing, or the power has peaked. He is still a sensational player with room to grow, but expect 15 HRs max.

• 1B Edwin Encarnacion is still a lock for 30+ homers if healthy, but there are warning signs he might see some regression this year. His FB% has fallen in back-to-back years, while his HR/FB% has climbed every season since 2013 to a career-best 21.5 in 2016. He can't be expected to sustain those gains, especially with a move out of Rogers Centre.

• Few expected to see 2B Jose Ramirez take a gigantic step forward in fantasy circles, to the point where he's right on Lindor's heels. But is it sustainable? Ramirez's .312/.363/.462 line from last season compares favorably - at least in two respects - with his .304/.355/.411 career slash in the minors. The power might not stick, but the BA certainly should.

• 2B Jason Kipnis became a first-time 20-home-run hitter in 2016, but there's doubt as to whether he can repeat it. He sold out to the fly ball (career-high 37% FB rate) and had an abnormally high OPS against lefties (.790); if either revert to previous years' rates, he'll likely top out at 15-18 HRs. Still, he's a top-10 fantasy 2B and should be drafted as such.

• OF Michael Brantley is somehow being drafted inside the top 50 at his position in early ADP returns - and there's simply no good reason for it. Brantley missed all of last season with a major shoulder injury that could result in a severely diminished power stroke. A career .291/.360/.445 slash makes him worth a late look in deep leagues, but that's it.

• It was a tale of two halves for RHP Corey Kluber, who went from so-so starter to Cy Young contender. The biggest differences? A jump in swinging strike rate from 12% to 14% and a strand rate that skyrocketed from 65% before the break to 85% in the second half. With a still-stalwart bullpen behind him, Kluber is a no-doubt SP1 in mixed leagues.

• RHP Carlos Carrasco took several small steps backward last season, posting a lower K/9 (9.2), a higher FIP (3.72), a higher Hard% (36.4) and a higher HR/FB% (16.3) compared to his sensational 2015 season. Look for the real Carrasco to emerge somewhere in the middle, which still makes him a top-20 SP league-wide with the upside for a top-15 finish.

• Cody Allen might be the top source of saves, but Andrew Miller is the reliever to own in this bullpen. Miller has been the ultimate rate-stat booster, posting a 1.82 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP in 198 1/3 innings over his past three seasons. Oh, and he also has 326 Ks over that span. He's worth drafting as a top-12 RP regardless of format.

Detroit Tigers

(Photo courtesy: Action Images)

• 1B Miguel Cabrera has shown few signs of slowing down, rebounding from a so-so 2015 to sock 38 homers last season while maintaining his sky-high BA. Those stats did, however, come at the expense of a lower walk rate (11%) that reduced his value in OBP leagues. A sign of things to come? Perhaps, but don't expect a dropoff in 2017.

• You might be wary of 2B Ian Kinsler's 2016 power surge - and that concern is well-founded. His HR/FB ratio of 12.5% was easily his highest since 2011; he hadn't posted a rate higher than 7.9% in the four years in between. His FB% (44.5) was also his highest in five years. This looks like a one-year thing; expect him to settle back into the 12-15 HR range.

• OF J.D. Martinez overcame injuries to post an impressive fantasy line - and if he stays healthy in 2017, watch out. His H% has been elite for three straight seasons (38, 34, 38), allowing him to average nearly .300 over that span. And the power is legit, even with a dip in HR/FB% last season (18.0). He should be one of the top 12 outfielders selected.

• An August hand injury derailed 3B Nick Castellanos' breakout season, though it looked less impressive as the year went along. But an increase in FB% to 43.0 and a vastly improved OPS vs. RHP (.894) suggest that he should be able to reach 20 HRs for the first time in his career. Look for him as a sneaky value play in the later rounds of mixed leagues.

• Remember how OF Justin Upton was one of the few must-have players last season? He burned a LOT of fantasy owners with his ice-cold start, but he's back on the radar after posting a .262/.336/.569 slash line with 23 homers and 51 RBIs in the second half. The nine steals were a minor disappointment, but he has 35-homer upside if he stays healthy.

• The big question surrounding RHP Justin Verlander is: can he repeat that 2016 K rate? Verlander went from 6.9 K/9 in 2014 to 7.6 in 2015, then leapt to 10.0 last season on the strength of a career-best 12% swinging strike rate and a greater reliance on that nasty slider (18.3%). A repeat of 2016 might be asking a lot, but it's clear he's a K-per-inning guy again.

• RHP Michael Fulmer was all the rage as a waiver-wire darling last season, but don't be too quick to scoop him up. He saw a huge dip in K/9 in the second half (8.5 to 6.6), and his strand rate fell from 85.4% to 72.9% - resulting in a second-half ERA nearly two points higher than his first-half mark. He has top-20 potential, but don't draft him there.

• This might be the beginning of the end of Francisco Rodriguez as an elite closer option. K-Rod did rack up 44 saves in his first season with the Tigers, but did so despite the lowest K/9 of his career (8.0), and his highest BB rate (3.2) since 2012. Draft him if you dare, but only do so after all of the top-tier closers are off the board.

Kansas City Royals

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

• 1B Eric Hosmer treated himself to more home-run trots last season, but it didn't help his fantasy profile. Hosmer sold out BA for power, socking a career-best 25 HRs but seeing his BA dip to its lowest level since 2012. With his contact rate dipping every year since 2013 and last year's HR/FB% (21.4) likely unsustainable, Hosmer is merely an ordinary 1B.

• A knee injury ended 3B Mike Moustakas' season early - and what a season it was shaping up to be, as Moose belted seven homers in just 113 at-bats. Combined with a significant ISO jump from 2014 (.149) to 2015 (.186), there's clear evidence the power surge is legit. If he can recapture the BA gains he made in 2015, as well, he'll be a solid sleeper.

• Sure, he dealt with injuries in 2016, but OF Lorenzo Cain's 2015 looks like a major outlier. Cain saw precipitous drops in runs scored, homers and steals, making worse overall contact while struggling mightily against right-handed pitchers (.668 OPS). Those 16 homers in '15 aren't coming back - and it's possible that the 25+ steals are gone for good, too.

• As nice as it is to get 20 homers from a catcher, Salvador Perez left his owners wanting more. His contact rate took a nosedive from 85% in 2015 to 77% last season, dropping his BA below .250. A .258 second-half OBP is also cause for concern, but he's only 27 and has plenty of time to reverse the trend. He remains a top-8 fantasy C.

• OF Jorge Soler was expected to be so much more than he is at the moment, but he's just 24 - and consistent playing time might be all he needs to reach the next tier of fantasy outfielders. But for that to happen, he'll need to improve drastically upon his career 68.5% contact rate. The eye is already there for him to be a nice bench option in OBP leagues.

• RHP Danny Duffy completely changed his pitch repertoire 2016, and the result was a breakout campaign for both he and his fantasy owners. He relied more on his two-seam fastball (19.5%) and changeup (17.2%) to set up a knockout slider that produced an unreal 20% swinging strike rate. Duffy has the arsenal to be a terrific SP3 in mixed leagues.

• On the surface, RHP Ian Kennedy looks like a decent enough starting option in mixed leagues. But after allowing 21 home runs in 108 2/3 innings on the road last season, you might want to think twice. The guy has coughed up 64 homers the past two campaigns, which you could forgive if he had a K rate north of 10. He doesn't. So stay away.

• Kelvin Herrera has trending qualities you want in a closer: The K rate has climbed two straight seasons to 10.8 last year, while his walk rate plummeted from 3.4 in 2015 to 1.5 in 2016. But his soft contact rate was an alarmingly low 14.8% last season - it was 27.4% just two years ago - while his GB/FB ratio has also dropped. He's good, but not great.

Minnesota Twins

(Photo courtesy: Action Images)

• Fantasy owners are officially past the honeymoon stage with 3B Miguel Sano, who flashed some serious power last season but didn't do much else. He strikes out far too often (35.8% K rate) for a player whose only redeemable offensive skill is mashing homers. He barely walks enough at the moment to be useful in OBP leagues, and he can't run. Fade him.

• Countless Byron Buxton owners will be cursing his name in 2017, but there was a lot to like at the end of last season (9 HR, 22 RBI, .287 BA in September/October). And while a 68.6% contact rate won't cut it in the majors, he showed greater patience as the season went on - and no matter how he gets on base, he's a threat to steal. Nab him late.

• OF Max Kepler added surprising power (.189 ISO) to the range of skills he had flashed in the minors, making him an interesting prospect heading into the season. A 33.0 Hard% has room to grow, and if he can show the patience he displayed in the minors, that OBP could reach elite levels. Consider him an OF4-5 with the upside of an OF3.

• 2B Brian Dozier will be one of the hottest names on draft day - and with good reason. Dozier slugged a career-best 42 homers last season on the strength of an absurd .278 ISO - and didn't sell out to do it, posting career highs in BA (.268) and wOBA (.370). A return to the 40-HR plateau is unlikely, but 30 - combined with 15 steals - makes him a top-3 2B.

• Few options scream "high-risk, high-reward play" as loudly as OF Eddie Rosario. The odds-on favorite to start at left field for the Twins is a power-speed threat who slashed .291/.328/.450 in the second half last season - but he can't draw a walk to save his life, and struggled his way to a first-half demotion. Pick him late, but be ready to drop him.

• RHP Ervin Santana is in position to be the best of a mediocre Twins pitching staff, but that doesn't make him a viable fantasy option. His solid second half from last season was aided by an unsustainable 81% strand rate, and he's far from being a strikeout-per-inning guy (7.2 K/9). You can do better in whatever round you consider him.

• Dynasty owners by the thousands gleefully slotted RHP Jose Berrios into their lineups once he was called up to the Twins - and instantly regretted it. Berrios was a disaster in the majors (8.02 ERAS, 1.87 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9), but don't ignore his minor-league track record (2.89 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.6 K/9) - and use his 2016 struggles as a perfect buy-low opportunity.

• Brandon Kintzler seized the closer role midway through the 2016 season and jogged with it, recording 17 saves mostly through smoke and mirrors. His K rate (5.80) is far too low for a ninth-inning stopper, and a 3.82 second-half ERA doesn't inspire confidence. The Twins have more talented relievers in the fold - so don't expect Kintzler to keep the job.