40 Fantasy Facts - AL East Edition

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Looking for an edge in your fantasy baseball drafts? Here are 40 facts from the 2016 season involving players from the American League East:

Baltimore Orioles

• Slugging 1B Chris Davis has been a fantasy yo-yo in his five years in Baltimore, as evidenced by his year-by-year ISO: .231, .348, .209, .300, .239. With Davis coming off the highest Soft%, GB% and IFFB% of his Orioles career, we might be seeing the start of a gradual - or not so gradual - decline. He's still a masher, but approach cautiously.

• Those who drafted SS/3B Manny Machado in 2016 wound up with a good news-bad news kind of season. The good: Machado became SS-eligible, increasing his value significantly. The bad: Machado didn't have a single stolen base, and didn't even attempt a theft after May 10. He's still a star, but the lack of steals should knock him back a round or two.

• Fantasy owners happily welcomed 2B Jonathan Schoop to the 80-25-80 club last season, but there are concerns here. The 25-year-old slashed a dismal .225/.252/.391 in the second half, effectively tanking the BA and OBP categories for owners down the stretch. He could also struggle to reach 80 runs and 80 RBIs again if he remains in the No. 6-8 hole.

• OF Adam Jones hit fly balls at a career-best rate last season (40.6%) but it didn't translate to more power, as he hit just two more home runs in 91 more plate appearances than he saw in 2015. On the plus side, he did post his highest BB% since 2009, which bodes well for those who own him in OBP leagues. He's on the periphery of the top 20 outfielders.

• C Welington Castillo should get some attention after the top tier of catchers are gone, but don't put too much stock in his 2016 numbers. Castillo rode a career-best 25.4 LD% to an unsustainable .337 BABIP; look for regression closer to league average, which should result in a BA south of .250. The 20-homer power, on the other hand, is legit.

• RHP Chris Tillman is coming off the second 16-win season of his career, likely making him an overdraft this spring. Tillman's FIP (4.23) and xFIP (4.54) suggest ERA regression, while his 77% strand rate is also due to drop. Ignore the W column and either draft him as a back-end starter in AL-only leagues, or leave him unowned in mixed formats.

• Looking for a potential AL-only ace who will come cheaper than he probably should? Look no further than RHP Kevin Gausman, who was sensational in the second half of last season (3.31 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 80% strand rate). He has 200-K upside and should pitch well enough to rack up the wins thanks to a still-potent Baltimore lineup.

• LHP Zach Britton will be one of the first closers off the board in the majority of drafts - and with good reason. While there's no way he posts a 0.54 ERA again, a mountain of impressive peripherals (including an 80 percent ground ball rate and an 18 percent swinging strike rate) suggest that even regression won't prevent him from recording 40-plus saves.

Boston Red Sox

• There was a new fantasy baseball king in 2016, and it was Boston Red Sox OF Mookie Betts. The consensus No. 16 pick in last year's drafts morphed into a five-category stud, posting a .315 average with 31 homers, 113 RBIs, 122 runs scored and 26 stolen bases. He'll be one of the top three picks off the board in most standard formats.

• You might look at SS Xander Bogaerts' ISO leap from .101 in 2015 to .152 in 2016 and suggest heavy regression is in order, but Bogaerts posted solid ISO rates throughout the minors, and still batted .294 last season even while selling out on AVG to hit more home runs. Look for a modest dip in long balls, but the average should climb back above .300.

• 2B Dustin Pedroia is shaping up to be a major overdraft after scoring 105 runs last season, his highest tally since 2009, and posting a .318 batting average which was his best since 2008. His .338 BABIP from 2016 is unsustainable, and the run total will fall with a less potent offense behind him. He's still good, but not good enough for a 12th-round ADP.

• Speaking of overdrafts, C Sandy Leon is in prime position to disappoint after positing a sky-high .392 BABIP and a .167 ISO which far exceeded anything he had posted over a full minor-league season. He just isn't that good a hitter - so let someone else pay for last year's outstanding half-season of MLB performance and opt for someone more consistent.

• On the flip side, those of you drafting early might be able to get on the Andrew Benintendi bandwagon before it gets too crowded. The talented outfielder looked good in limited action with the Red Sox in 2016 (.295/.359/.476, .181 ISO), but he has the added benefit of solid minor-league performance to match. He might also hit second in the order.

• The Good: LHP Chris Sale goes from pitching in front of a league-average defense (based on FanGraphs' Defense rating) to the team which finished sixth in 2016. The offense is better, too. The Bad: Sale saw his K/9 drop from 11.8 to 9.3 as he made an effort to pitch deeper into games. If that tactic is here to stay, he's no longer a top-5 SP option.

• Gauging where to select Cy Young winner Rick Porcello is going to be a significant challenge. On one hand, his 1.29 BB/9 rate from 2016 is the stuff of legends - as is his 0.93 HR/9. But there's no way he'll limit hitters to a .269 BABIP again, no matter how good the Boston defense is. Consider him a top-25 SP option, but make sure to get Ks elsewhere.

• It's never good to see a closer's save totals drop over a four-year span (from 50 to 47 to 39 to 31) while his ERA rises (from 1.21 to 1.61 to 2.58 to 3.40). Craig Kimbrel still has elite K/9 prowess, but walks are a growing issue - and with Boston built to win, manager John Farrell won't hesitate to make a switch. Draft Kimbrel as a second-tier closer.

New York Yankees

• In 2015, it was the Cubs' Kyle Schwarber who threw the catcher ADP into turmoil. A year later, Yankees great Gary "The Natural" Sanchez is sitting on the periphery of a fourth-round ADP after socking 20 homers in just 201 at-bats with the big club. Don't be the one to reach for him; he might be great in 2016, but the sample size is a major red flag.

• Is there hope for OF Matt Holliday in his age-37 season? Perhaps, at least in the sense you could get him for a bargain: the power is still there (.215 ISO in 426 PA) and an unsustainably low .253 BABIP was the driving force behind a .246 BA that is sure to climb. His best days are well behind him, but you could do worse for a solid bench bat.

• OF Brett Gardner should still be a safe bet for 20 steals, but any value you seek in home runs (and by extension, RBIs) appears to have eroded. Gardner saw his HR/FB% cut nearly in half to six percent, while his overall FB% (27.0) was the lowest of his career. Draft him as a source of swipes and runs, but you can't expect double-digit home runs anymore.

• On the flip side, 2B Starlin Castro saw a dramatic increase in HR/FB%, from eight percent in his last season with the Cubs to 15 percent in his first year with the Yankees. And that led to a 21-homer outburst which didn't come at the expense of his BA (.270). The steals are all but gone, but Castro should be a 20-HR threat at a position devoid of power.

• SS Didi Gregorius also saw a home-run spike (from nine in 2015 to 20 in 2016), but his big-league profile suggests this is more a fluke than a new normal. That said, Gregorius has seen his BA soar by 36 points in two seasons despite boasting a BABIP south of .300 every year. There's room for growth here, so draft him for a BA boost in the later rounds.

• A switch to a more sinker-heavy arsenal benefited SP Masahiro Tanaka in 2016, as he saw his HR/FB% drop from 17 to 12 while he maintained his pinpoint control (1.6 BB/9). His K rate dropped to a new low of 7.4, and that's probably what daily fantasy owners should expect moving forward. He remains a quality No. 2 starter in mixed leagues.

• Don't be surprised to see the fantasy industry take an optimistic view on SP Michael Pineda's 2017 season. His ERA sagged well below his FIP for the second year in a row, suggesting that if he can find a way to lower his HR/FB% (15 and 17 the past two years), he'll be a star. Even if he can't, 200+ Ks and a decent walk rate make him an ideal No. 3 starter.

• Feeling frisky? Draft Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances and land yourself the best 1-2 reliever punch in the division. The two combined to produce some ridiculous numbers last season (2.40 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 216 K in 131 IP, 7 HR allowed), and could be had well after the top starters are selected. You can build yourself a Franken-ace with these two.

Tampa Bay Rays

• On the surface, fantasy owners will be pleased to see Rays 3B Evan Longoria belted a career-best 36 home runs in 2016 without sacrificing BA (.273). A steadily declining walk rate and climbing K rate resulted in a career-low OBP, which makes him far less appealing in 6x6s. Expect another year of 30-plus homers, but tread carefully in OBP leagues.

• SS Brad Miller slugged a career-best 30 home runs, but fantasy owners shouldn't expect a repeat. His .239 ISO was significantly higher than any season in his career, as was an absurd 20% HR/FB ratio - double the rate he posted in each of his first three MLB seasons. Just as alarming: a drop in steals from 13 to six; he needs to retain the SB value.

• Looking for a low-cost power-speed provider? Put OF Kevin Kiermaier on your radar. He has reached double-digit homers in each of his two full seasons in Tampa Bay while averaging 19.5 steals over that span, including a career-best 21 in 2016. With more playing time, he has a shot at a 15-30 season - and he can be had in the back half of mixed drafts.

• Playing time might be harder to come by in 2017 for OF Corey Dickerson, who faces more competition in the Rays outfield (more on that below) and is coming off a dreadful showing (.245/.293/.469, 24.5 K%). The home runs are nice, but if they aren't accompanied by measurable gains in BA and OBP, he'll be relegated into permanent part-time duties.

• With Dickerson reeling and few other competent options available, the Rays took a flier on OF Colby Rasmus, who got off to a great start with Houston in 2016 before falling off a cliff in the second half. And he's just too similar to Dickerson in overall profile for either player to be considered the front-runner for playing time in a corner outfield spot.

• RHP Chris Archer rewarded many fantasy owners who decided to buy low on him after a dreadful start, lowering his ERA by nearly a full point in the second half while maintaining a rock-solid K/9 rate (9.8). He won't give up that many home runs again in 2017, and should be treated like the fantasy ace he is despite burning those who drafted him last season.

• Those who snagged LHP Blake Snell last season had to be disappointed, for the most part; while his 9.9 K/9 rate was sensational, wonky control (5.2 BB/9) limited his effectiveness and kept his win total down. Still, his FIP was .15 lower than his ERA, and he has major punchout stuff. Look for 200+ Ks and an ERA of 3.50, which makes him a No. 3 fantasy SP.

• The Rays stumbled into an elite closer after failed starter Alex Colome took the job in Brad Boxburger's absence and ran with it. Improved control from the first half (3.1 BB/9) to the second half (1.5 BB/9) came with no dip in K/9, and should be sustainable in 2017. If it is, Colome is a lock for 30-plus saves and could approach elite closer status.

Toronto Blue Jays

• What makes 3B Josh Donaldson such a lethal hitter - and subsequently, a fantasy diamond? His ability to hit both lefties and righties; the 2015 AL MVP has posted an OPS above .910 against both LHPs and RHPs in each of his two seasons since arriving in Toronto via trade. Draft him with confidence in the back of the first round in mixed leagues.

• Memo to fantasy owners: SS Troy Tulowitzki isn't done yet. The veteran shortstop looked like a man on the decline in the first half of last season (.239/.315/.453), but responded after the break (.269/.321/.433), finishing with 24 home runs and 79 RBIs. The 2017 version of Tulowitzki is somewhere in the middle of those slash lines, but there's still value there.

• There might not be another 35-homer season in OF Jose Bautista's future, but those writing him off completely might want to reconsider. Bautista's hard contact rate in 2016 (41.0) was actually the highest of his career; so, too, was his line drive rate (18.8). A little more batted ball luck and Bautista should see a big BA increase. He's still a top-30 fantasy OF.

• Gone are the days when C Russell Martin batted north of .250, but if you decide not to jump on one of the elite catchers on draft day, you should be happy to land him. He had the fourth-most second-half home runs (13) of any catcher-eligible player, and he is over the neck problems which plagued him early in 2016. He's still a C1 until the power is gone.

• He's no Edwin Encarnacion, but 1B/DH Kendrys Morales should provide fantasy owners with decent contributions in 2017. He posted a career-best .930 OPS against left-handers in 2016; if he can retain even half those gains while rebounding from a subpar .730 OPS vs. RHP, he should provide a .270+ BA to go along with 25-30 HRs and 80-90 RBIs.

• Draft RHP Aaron Sanchez at your peril. It's unlikely he'll be a bust in his second full season as a starter, but he probably isn't going to lead the AL in win percentage and ERA, either. He outperformed his FIP by better than a half-point in 2016, and his K/9 (7.5) isn't exactly elite. For where you would need to draft him, the odds of him returning value are slim.

• Don't be surprised to see RHP Marcus Stroman emerge as the Jays' top fantasy pitcher. While he won just two games in the second half of last season, his ERA (3.68) was well over a point better than it was in the first half (4.89); he also dramatically improved his K/9 from 6.4 to 8.5. There will be bumps, but it appears Stroman is ready to be a fantasy SP4.

• Think RHP Roberto Osuna is an elite closer? Several metrics would agree with you. Osuna ranked second among qualified relievers in first-pitch strike percentage in 2016 (70.1) while finishing 11th in soft contact rate (25.4%). His control also took a step forward last season (1.7 BB/9). If you're looking for a 50-save wild card, here's your guy.