What to look for in a goalie matchup
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Goaltender pricing is one of the more accurate positions in all of daily fantasy. The top-tier goaltenders come from the best teams and have the safest floor in any given matchup. The occasional shutout can provide a big boost to their value, though they're entirely unpredictable.
Here's what to look for in a goaltending matchup in order to maximize value and avoid sinking your entire lineup:
Fading the obvious matchups
Goalies pick up their fantasy points for saves with bonuses for wins and shutouts. They lose points for goals allowed. While picking a winning goalie is very important, it's not always enough to compensate for a goaltender who faces only 20 shots on goal and allows a couple of fluky goals along the way. The saves total is just not high enough.
An excellent example of this last season came in goaltenders facing the New Jersey Devils. It's easy to look at the Devils' average of 2.22 goals for per game and view the opposing goalie as a top option on the slate. The Devils, however, recorded just 24.4 shots on goal per game.
Even just two goals allowed can do more harm than good on nights when they fell short of their average shot count. A much better team to target was the Toronto Maple Leafs. They scored just 2.34 goals per game, but averaged 30.7 SOG.
Choosing top matchups
The safest goalies are, obviously, those with the best combination of personal and team talent. They're likely among the league leaders in both save percentage and goals against average, with their team providing excellent opportunity for a victory in most matchups.
Target a goalie from a team good at limiting SOG from their opponents when they're playing a team with a high shot rate. The goalie will still face enough shots to return value, but the shots he does face will be of lesser quality.
Corsica.Hockey tracks the number of low-,medium-, and high-danger shots a goalie faces and their save percentage in each of three situations.
To maximize value in both fantasy production and low ownership, stick with these goalies in potentially dangerous matchups. Talent almost always reigns supreme, even when the odds may say otherwise.
The most obvious source of value at goaltender is those likely to face a high volume of low-quality shots. The above-mentioned Maple Leafs ranked sixth in SOG, but they ranked 28th in goals for per game. They were the perfect target for a struggling or underpriced goaltender.
When to take a risk
Buffalo Sabres G Robin Lehner finished the 2015-16 season with a .924 save percentage, a 2.47 GAA and a 5-9-5 record in just 21 starts. His season was hampered by injury and by playing for a struggling Sabres team. Buffalo allowed an average of just 30.6 SOG per game and took 29.5 of their own. They scored just 2.62 goals per game.
Lehner did have a stretch of seven starts from February 14 to March 1, in which he went 2-3-2, but posted a stellar .953 save percentage. He allowed just 11 goals in the seven games.
Taking a goaltender from a team which allows a lot of shots when they're playing a team with a high shot average but low goal count can be a great source of value in the event of a win.