Fantasy: 10 risky picks that could make or break your season (Updated)
Get ready for your season with theScore's 2016 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
Every fantasy owner has a particular approach to building a team, but risk management is at the heart of each decision made on draft day.
Gambling with your fantasy picks can be stressful, but it can also be exhilarating. If you're willing to take some chances, here are 10 players who could deliver league-winning performances in 2016 - as long as they don't sink your team first.
Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator and based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.
Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
The 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals should never be discussed in a fantasy article, and yet here we are. After the court rejected Brady's request for a new hearing, it appears as though his four-game suspension will stand. Rostering the Patriots QB has its complications now, since you'll have to reserve a bench spot for Brady, limiting early-season waiver wire pickups. The pressure will be on to find a quality backup or risk falling out of the playoff race before Brady even gets into your lineup.
Risk Factor: ☢☢☢
ADP: Late 6th round
David Johnson, RB, Cardinals
Do you really have the guts to take a player who started only five games and handled 125 carries as a rookie with your first-round pick? Because that's where you will have to draft Johnson if you want him on your squad. There's a lot to be wary about here - including the fact that he only got the Cardinals' starting job after Chris Johnson's injury, and the veteran was re-signed this offseason - but there's also the undeniable fact that, as a rookie, the Northern Iowa product was absolutely electric with the ball in his hands. If you believe the risk that the two Johnsons split carries and kill each other's fantasy value is overblown, David could actually be a value pick late in Round 1.
Risk Factor: ☢☢☢
ADP: 1st round
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys
Anyone who was burned by Ryan Mathews' rookie season with the Chargers in 2010 will likely be hesitant to use such valuable draft capital on a first-year back ever again. But Elliott finds himself in a much different situation, having been selected by the Cowboys, who boast the league's best offensive line. Elliott is a special talent and a quality receiver out of the backfield. Assuming the Cowboys don't cap his touches, which is possible with veteran Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris hanging around, Elliott has an outside shot to challenge for the fantasy running back title. The risk is evident, but the reward will be substantial.
Risk Factor: ☢☢☢
ADP: Late 1st round
C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos
Fantasy owners who drafted Anderson last season are probably disgusted by even seeing a picture of him. A strong end to the 2014 season turned Anderson into a first-round fantasy pick last year. After watching their most important draft pick fail to top 50 yards in a game during the first half of the season, most fantasy owners traded or released him. Then Anderson got healthy and went on a run late in the year and into the playoffs, helping the Broncos win the Super Bowl. Anderson has RB1 talent and is far more tempting at his third-round price tag this year, but the possibility that he tanks your fantasy team is real.
Risk Factor: ☢☢☢☢
ADP: 3rd round
Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks
The Seahawks say Rawls is on track to return from ankle surgery in time for Week 1, but Christine Michael is putting all kinds of pressure on him thanks to an outstanding performance in the preseason. Rookie C.J. Prosise is also back on the field and playing as the third-down back with the first unit. Assuming Rawls is indeed healthy and runs like he did as a rookie, he has high-end RB1 upside now that Marshawn Lynch is out of the picture. But if Rawls is slow out of the gate, this situation could turn into a full-blown committee, with Michael vulturing touches and Prosise handling passing-down work.
Risk Factor: ☢☢☢☢☢
ADP: Late 3rd round
Matt Jones, RB, Redskins
Jones looked the part of a No. 1 RB during the preseason last year, but when the games counted he was held back by a fumbling problem and the presence of veteran Alfred Morris. The latter left in free agency and Jones spent the offseason working on his ball security. An AC joint sprain will keep him out for the rest of preseason, but with little competition on the roster outside of passing specialist Chris Thompson, Washington has put all its faith in Jones. Whether fantasy owners should do the same remains up for debate.
Risk Factor: ☢☢☢☢☢
ADP: Early 6th round
Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills
Watkins was ridiculously efficient last season and showed why the Bills spent two first-round picks to acquire him, which is why it's so unfortunate that a foot injury kept him out early in the preseason. Watkins is on track to play in Week 1, but he has an extensive injury history for such a young player. Further complicating matters: the Bills' offense, which is run-heavy and has a dearth of talent at receiver behind Watkins, essentially guaranteeing he'll see double coverage on every snap.
Risk Factor: ☢☢☢
ADP: 3rd round
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks
Baldwin averaging 96.8 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game from Week 12 to Week 16 helped many owners to fantasy titles, but also likely overinflated his draft stock heading into 2016. Even with that impressive stretch, Baldwin just barely topped 100 targets and 1,000 receiving yards on the season. The Seahawks have talked about opening up the offense more for Russell Wilson, which could lead to more targets for Baldwin. However, those opportunities might also go to Tyler Lockett, who's expected to take on a bigger role. Baldwin should be a a high-end WR3 in fantasy, but anyone drafting him looking for more is taking a gamble.
Risk Factor: ☢☢☢☢
ADP: Early 5th round
DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins
Never fully healthy as a rookie, Parker still showed his gamebreaker potential by averaging 19 yards per reception on 26 catches. He finished the season strong, averaging 95 yards receiving over his final three games, and appeared to be heading towards a breakout year in 2016. However, three games into the preseason, Parker has failed to make an impact in Adam Gase's scheme and is playing behind Kenny Stills in two-receiver sets. Parker's path to becoming a fantasy starter may not be as clear as we once believed.
Risk Factor: ☢☢☢☢
ADP: Early 8th round
Kevin White, WR, Bears
No one really knows what to expect from White after he lost his rookie season to injury. The Bears' offense tends to favor the run, but with their 2015 first-round pick joining established star Alshon Jeffery, Chicago might be encouraged to take to the air more often this season. If White proves himself worthy, there's instant breakout potential for the 6-foot-3, 215-pound receiver. If he struggles to acclimate himself to the offense after his year off the field, though, the Bears might be content feeding targets to Jeffery.
Risk Factor: ☢☢☢☢
ADP: 8th round
Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals
When Eifert is on the field, he's one of the best red-zone weapons in football. The problem is that he's proving to be highly fragile (or at least highly unlucky) early in his career. Now Eifert is again dealing with an injury that could force him to the sidelines for an extended period. He injured his ankle in the Pro Bowl and hoped it would heal without surgery, but that plan failed and he went under the knife in late May. With a three-to-four month timetable for recovery, Eifert will likely miss at least the first month of the season. Considering where Eifert is being drafted and the possibility he won't return to his dominant red-zone form until midseason, risk-averse fantasy owners may want to look elsewhere.
Risk Factor: ☢☢☢☢☢
ADP: 7th round